节水灌区指标体系与总效益评价方法探讨研究

随着节水灌区建设规模日益增大,针对节水灌区的评价指标和评价效益的方法研究也在进一步深入。本文所介绍的方法是对灌区监测得到的信息及人为调查得来的信息进行综合分析研究,结合专家群决策以及AHP方法来确定权重系数,从而通过计算可得到评价指标和评价效益相对应的评价数据,进而确定节水灌区建设及效益的满意程度。通过实例进行计算分析,得到较为满意的结果,可为灌区的策略性发展建设提供依据。     

引入因素分析法的神经网络在洪水

因素分析法是一种多元统计法，可以通过线性变换，将原有数据转换成彼此不相关且维数较少的数据，本文将因素分析法引入洪水预报神经网络的输入单元精简过程，详细介绍了建模和神经网络训练过程中包括STA训练控制在内的一些关键技术问题，并通过实例评价了此应用方法的效果，通过分析，表明此方法可以在不损失或较小损失的前提下方便有效的对洪水预报神经网络结构进行精简，大大缩减了神经网络的规模，提高了效率，具有很高的实用价值。     

水稻插秧机现状分析及发展预测

水稻插秧机技术研发与产品质量保障是实现水稻生产全程机械化的关键。日本、韩国等已实现了水稻插秧机械化,机型以高效高性能插秧机为主。近几年我国通过引进技术和自主开发相结合,插秧机械化水平、插秧机技术研发和产品产销量得到了大的发展,全国插秧机生产企业有20多家、年产销量达4万多台。今后插秧机技术发展趋势是,产品向系列化和多样化方向发展、机型从单一插秧作业向复式作业方向发展、底盘向多功能通用底盘方向发展。但手扶步进式插秧机将是我国持续发展的机型。     

格点天气预报数据与机理模型耦合的冬小麦干旱预警方法

为了开展大范围的冬小麦干旱预警,以中国北方冬小麦区为实例,构建了土壤水分动态预报模型,结合未来10 d高精度天气要素预报、土壤自动水分观测和冬小麦发育期观测数据,建立了北方冬小麦区干旱预警系统。利用该系统对2018年4—5月进行逐日的冬小麦干旱预警,对干旱预警产品的分析表明:系统对未来10 d土壤相对湿度预报的决定系数在0. 63～0. 91之间,均方根误差在5. 6%～18. 2%之间,预报时效越近,准确率越高。从不同的干旱等级预测准确率看,对于干旱等级较高的重旱和特旱预报准确率较高,轻旱和中旱的预报准确率略低。该系统基本满足冬小麦干旱预警需求,对国家级农业气象部门大范围农业干旱监测和预警业务是有益的补充。     

基于条件植被温度指数的夏玉米生长季干旱预测研究

为验证条件植被温度指数(VTCI)在夏玉米生长季干旱预测中的适用性,以河北中部平原为研究区,应用求和自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型及季节性求和自回归移动平均(SARIMA)模型,对该地区VTCI时间序列数据进行分析建模预测。首先基于49个气象站点所在像素的VTCI时间序列数据,选取不同长度时间序列建立ARIMA模型,并分析时间序列长度与预测精度间关系,以期为时间序列长度选择提供依据;然后选择理想长度的VTCI时间序列数据,分别建立ARIMA模型和SARIMA模型,用于研究区域2017年夏玉米生长季VTCI预测,并分析评价两模型预测精度;最后采用性能较好的ARIMA模型逐像素建模预测,得到2016-2018年9月上旬至下旬VTCI预测结果。结果表明:基于ARIMA模型的VTCI预测精度与时间序列长度未呈现明显的相关关系,但随时间序列长度增加,模型预测精度逐渐趋于稳定;ARIMA模型对干旱的预测精度高于基于SARIMA模型,其1步、2步、3步VTCI预测结果均方根误差较SARIMA模型分别降低0. 06、0. 07、0. 09;ARIMA模型在不同年份夏玉米生长季VTCI1~3步的预测精度稳定性较好,2016-2018年1步、2步和3步VTCI预测结果绝对误差绝对值大于0. 20的像素平均百分比分别为5. 84%、6. 38%、8. 72%。     

BP和RBF神经网络预测射流式喷头射程对比

为了探究适合全射流喷头多因素下射程的预测模型,通过改变喷头工作压力、安装高度、喷嘴直径、喷头仰角共4个参数,对射程进行测量.基于BP神经网络和广义径向基(RBF)神经网络的基本原理和算法,建立了全射流喷头射程预测的BP和RBF神经网络模型,并分析BP和RBF神经网络的预测性能.结果表明射程与工作压力、喷嘴直径呈非线性关系;当喷头在1.2 m安装高度、27°仰角、4~10 mm喷嘴直径时,压力增大到0.4 MPa,射程趋于极限,并且安装高度与射程呈正相关关系.BP与RBF神经网络均能较好地表达全射流喷头射程与主控因素之间的非线性关系.在训练时间方面,RBF网络比BP网络慢8.05 s;预测过程中,BP网络在每次运行程序时的预测结果不一定相同,而RBF网络则不会出现此问题,且RBF网络预测值与实测值之间的平均绝对误差比BP网络的小3.55%.从网络预测总体效果观察,RBF神经网络预测喷头射程具有更好的推广能力.     

广东省水稻生产机械装备水平灰色预测与分析

利用广东省水稻生产主要环节机械装备保有量的历史数据,建立了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,对2006-2020年广东省水稻生产机械装备水平进行了预测,并参考广东省水稻生产机械化作业水平值,对其预测结果进行了修正,以便能为政府主管部门制定提高水稻生产机械装备水平的政策措施提供参考依据.     

Determining corn nitrogen rates using multiple prediction models

Weather uncertainty and soil spatial variability impact nitrogen (N) cycling and corn (Zea mays L.) growth, making accurate N predictions a challenge. Field studies were conducted in Lansing, Michigan, to evaluate a computer model (i.e., Adapt-N), a preseason year-based model (i.e., maximum return to N [MRTN]), and a crop sensor model (i.e., active canopy sensor with algorithm) for recommending corn N rates. To determine site-specific economic optimum N rates (EONR), five N rates were also applied (0, 33%, 66%, 133%, and 166% of the suggested MRTN) as starter + sidedress (SD) at V4. In a wet year (i.e., 2015), Adapt-N increased V8 SD N rates 35 kg N ha^?1 relative to the MRTN V4 SD N application. Although the greater rate of N may have provided additional yield protection, no statistical yield differences were observed between the two models. The MRTN model increased partial factor productivity (PFP) 20% relative to Adapt-N. Limited expression of V8 corn N deficiency reduced crop sensor total N rates (21–56 kg N ha^?1) and yield (0.82–1.05 Mg ha^?1) relative to other models. In a drier year (i.e., 2016), N demand was reduced (EONR 64 kg N ha^?1 less than 2015), resulting in similar corn response to all three models. Despite differences in actual corn N rate recommendations, all three models resulted in similar economic net returns across study years.

Abbreviations: EONR, economic optimum nitrogen rate; MRTN, Maximum Return to Nitrogen; NUE, nitrogen-use efficiency; PFP, partial factor productivity; SBNRC, sensor-based nitrogen rate calculator; SD, side-dress     

Influence of temperature,humidity duration and growth stage on the infection and mycotoxin production by Fusarium langsethiae and Fusarium poae in oats

High occurrence of Fusarium poae (FP) and Fusarium langsethiae (FL) and their mycotoxins nivalenol (NIV) and T-2/HT-2 have been observed in Swiss oats. Early prediction of mycotoxin levels is important for farmers and the cereal industry to minimize the risk of contaminated food and feed. Therefore, climate chamber experiments were conducted to investigate the influence of different temperatures (10, 15, 20 °C) and durations (4, 8, 12 h) at 99% relative humidity (RH) on the infection of oats with FP and FL. In addition, to discover the most susceptible period of oats, artificial FL inoculations were conducted at different growth stages. Field experiments were performed to observe the dispersal of these fungal species within the field and to investigate the weather conditions that influence the dispersal. The climate chamber experiments revealed higher contamination with NIV and T-2/HT-2 in the 10 °C treatments and with a prolonged humidity duration of 12 h 99% RH. Inoculations of oat plants at early (DC 61) and mid (DC 65) anthesis, led to higher FL infection and T-2/HT-2 accumulation in the grains compared with treatments at earlier growth stages, which might be due to an increased susceptibility during anthesis. No indication for spore dispersal was observed in the field experiments. The results obtained, together with the cropping factors that influence infection and mycotoxin production, could be used as a first step in developing forecasting models to predict the contamination of oats with the mycotoxins NIV and T-2/HT-2.     

华北地区十字花科芸薹属蔬菜上立枯丝核菌的病原生物学研究

 由丝核菌引起的十字花科蔬菜叶腐和茎基腐病在中国华北地区普遍发生,其中以河北、内蒙以及北京较为严重。2011~2018年,从华北地区不同省份具有典型叶腐和茎基腐症状的芸苔属蔬菜上分离获得95个丝核菌(Rhizoctonia spp.)分离物,大多数分离自发病植株的叶部,少数分离自茎基部。通过细胞核染色,87株菌属于多核丝核菌,另外8株属于双核丝核菌;经菌丝融合鉴定、rDNA-ITS区及TEF-1α(translation elongation factor 1-alpha, TEF-1α)序列分析,大多数多核丝核菌属于立枯丝核菌(Rhizoctonia solani)AG-2-1(74％),其他少数分别属于AG-1-IB(16％)、AG-4-HG II(2％)和双核丝核菌AG-A(8％)。温室条件下进行寄主范围致病力测定,各分离物对原寄主都表现出致病力,呈现典型叶腐或茎基腐症状;对其他作物的致病力差异较大。不同融合群(Anastomosis group,AG)的菌株对寄主致病力大小存在差异,AG-2-1致病力最强,只有AG-A对叶部没有致病力。AG-2-1对寄主叶部的致病力和对茎基部的致病力呈显著正相关,AG-1-IB对寄主叶部的致病力和对茎基部的致病力无显著相关性。