Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics

An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities, as well as land use and landcover in geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according to change in breeder abundance, saturation, and distribution, compared to baseline conditions. Sensitivity of simulation results to changes in model parameters was also examined. Simulated results suggest that while all four species modeled are likely to persist under present and future scenario conditions, two may be more at risk from future landscape change. Although the study species are all widespread generalists regarded as having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands and ponds, increasingly endangered habitats in agricultural landscapes. Broader conservation strategies in the region would ensure that these currently common organisms do not become the endangered species of the future.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Simulating evolution of glyphosate resistance in Lolium rigidum II: past, present and future glyphosate use in Australian cropping

Glyphosate is a key component of weed control strategies in Australia and worldwide. Despite widespread and frequent use, evolved resistance to glyphosate is rare. A herbicide resistance model, parameterized for Lolium rigidum has been used to perform a number of simulations to compare predicted rates of evolution of glyphosate resistance under past, present and projected future use strategies. In a 30‐year wheat, lupin, wheat, oilseed rape crop rotation with minimum tillage (100% shallow depth soil disturbance at sowing) and annual use of glyphosate pre‐sowing, L. rigidum control was sustainable with no predicted glyphosate resistance. When the crop establishment system was changed to annual no‐tillage (15% soil disturbance at sowing), glyphosate resistance was predicted in 90% of populations, with resistance becoming apparent after between 10 and 18 years when sowing was delayed. Resistance was predicted in 20% of populations after 25–30 years with early sowing. Risks of glyphosate resistance could be reduced by rotating between no‐tillage and minimum‐tillage establishment systems, or by rotating between glyphosate and paraquat for pre‐sowing weed control. The double knockdown strategy (sequential full rate applications of glyphosate and paraquat) reduced risks of glyphosate and paraquat resistance to <2%. Introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape significantly increased predicted risks of glyphosate resistance in no‐tillage systems even when the double knockdown was practised. These increased risks could be offset by high crop sowing rates and weed seed collection at harvest. When no selective herbicides were available in wheat crops, the introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape necessitated a return to a minimum‐tillage crop establishment system.     

Predicting effective doses for the joint action of two fungicide applications

A function was derived to predict fungicide efficacy when more than one application of a single active ingredient is made to a crop, given parameters describing the dose–response curves of the component single-spray applications. In the function, a second application is considered to act on that proportion of the total pathogen population which was uncontrollable at the time of the first application (represented by the lower asymptote of the dose–response curve for the first treatment), plus any additional part of the population which survived the first application as a result of a finite dose being applied. Data to estimate the single-spray dose–response curve parameters and validate predictions of two-spray programme efficacy were obtained from separate subsets of treatments in four field experiments. A systemic fungicide spray was applied to wheat at a range of doses, at one or both of two times (t₁ and t₂), in all dose combinations. Observed values of the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) for septoria leaf blotch (Mycosphaerella graminicola) were used to construct response surfaces of dose at t₁ by dose at t₂ for each culm leaf layer. Parameters were estimated from single-spray and zero-dose treatment data only. The model predicted a high proportion (R² = 71–95%) of the variation in efficacy of the two-spray programmes. AUDPC isobols showed that the dose required at t₂ was inversely related to the dose at t₁, but the slope of the relationship varied with the relative timings of t₁ and t₂ in relation to culm leaf emergence. Isobols were curved, so the effective dose – the total dose required to achieve a given level of disease suppression – was lower when administered as two applications.     

Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics

An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.     

桃品种需冷量评价模式的探讨

 通过1986～2001年对450余份桃品种需冷量的7．2℃模式、0～7．2℃模式(不包括0℃)和犹它模式比较分析，归纳出桃品种需冷量的评价模式为：以秋季日平均温度稳定低于7．2~C的日期为需冷量测定的起点，以0～7．2℃累积低温值作为需冷量的评价标准比较适宜；犹它模式在中需冷量和长需冷量范围内能有效预测休眠的结束，而不适宜低需冷量品种的测定；7．2℃模式不适宜作为需冷量的评价模式。品种的需冷量与叶芽开放和始花期的相关系数分别为0．52和0．58，均达到极显著水平。提出了桃品种需冷量评价的系列标准参照品种。     

新疆冬小麦农田蒸散估算模型的研究

本文在田间试验资料的基础上，综合考虑了影响冬小麦农田蒸散的气象、生物学特性和土壤水分等因素，选用蒸发力、冬小麦的叶面积指数和相对有效土壤湿度建立了新疆冬小麦农田蒸散估算模型，并且检验了该模型的计算效果。     

景观生态学原理与方法在荒漠化研究中应用的理论分析

荒漠化发生发展的过程实际上是指在自然和人为因素的作用下，生态系统结构遭受破坏、功能过程受阻和演变发生异化的过程，其防治的根本措施是恢复和重建健康的生态系统。所以，景观生态学理念在荒漠化的研究和防治中有着重要的意义。本文从荒漠化与生态系统结构、功能变化、荒漠化与生物多样性、荒漠化生态系统的物质循环和能量流动以及荒漠化生态系统的稳定性等方面论述了景观生态学理念在荒漠化研究中应用的可行性，并重点分析了景观生态学关于景观格局变化的评价指标与荒漠化土地动态变化之间的关系。     

Functional heterogeneity in resources within landscapes and herbivore population dynamics

Large mammalian herbivores are notorious for their propensity towards population irruptions and crashes, yet many herbivore populations remain relatively stable. I explore how resource heterogeneity within landscapes dampens population instability, using a metaphysiological modelling approach considering patch state distributions. Resource heterogeneity is functionally stabilizing through spreading consumption away from preferred resources before these become critically depleted. Lower-quality resources act as a buffer against starvation during critical periods of the seasonal cycle. Enriching resource quality is destabilizing, even if patch diversity is maintained, because food quantity then becomes the limitation. The potential consequences of landscape fragmentation are explored using the Serengeti ecosystem, characterised by broadscale resource gradients, as a hypothetical example. Further insights provided by the model are illustrated with specific examples concerning the effects of patch scales and waterpoint distribution. A metaphysiological modelling approach enables the basic consequences of landscape heterogeneity to be distinguished from further effects that may arise from specific patch scales and configurations, without the distracting detail of spatially explicit models.     

Using traffic flow theory to model traffic mortality in mammals

Traffic has a considerable effect on population and community dynamics through the disruption and fragmentation of habitat and traffic mortality. This paper deals with a systematic way to acquire knowledge about the probabilities of successful road crossing by mammals and what characteristics affect this traversability. We derive a model from traffic flow theory to estimate traffic mortality in mammals related to relevant road, traffic and species characteristics. The probability of successful road crossing is determined by the pavement width of the road, traffic volume, traversing speed of the mammals and their body length. We include the traversability model in a simple two-patch population model to explore the effects of these road, traffic and species characteristics on population dynamics. Analysis of the models show that, for our parameter ranges, traffic volume and traversing speed have the largest effect on traffic mortality. The population size is especially negatively affected when roads have to be crossed during the daily movements. These predictions could be useful to determine the expected effectiveness of mitigating measures relative to the current situation. Mitigating measures might alter the road and traffic characteristics. The effects of these changes on traffic mortality and population dynamics could be analysed by calculating the number of traffic victims before and after the mitigating measures. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

家兔群体遗传变异的微卫星标记

选用欧洲野兔的 5个微卫星位点 ,分析了 5个品种 (系 )家兔群体的遗传变异。结果表明 :Vc- 系獭兔的群体内平均多态信息含量和平均杂合度最大 ,分别为 0 .5 5 2 6和 0 .6 2 0 2 ;新西兰兔群体内平均多态信息含量和平均杂合度最小 ,分别为 0 .4 5 15和 0 .5 2 6 1。由此说明 ,5个品种 (系 )家兔中 ,新西兰兔群体内变异较小 ,相对较纯 ;Vc- 系獭兔群体内变异较大 ,纯度相对较小。但总的来看 ,5个品种 (系 )家兔的平均多态信息含量和平均杂合度相差都不大 ,说明Vc獭兔在遗传性能上已接近其他优良品种兔。聚类结果表明 :Vc- 系獭兔与 Vc- 系獭兔亲缘关系最近 ,与日本大耳白兔、青紫蓝兔亲缘关系较近 ,与新西兰兔亲缘关系最远 ,这与 Vc獭兔育种历史事实相符。另外 ,在 Sat4和 Sat8位点上分别检测出了 1条 Vc獭兔所特有的条带 ,从而为进一步研究 Vc獭兔的遗传特性打下良好的基础