湖南农业运输机械事故灰色关联分析

利用灰色系统理论方法,对湖南省1997～2002年的农业运输机械事故的影响因素进行了系统分析,分析计算结果是:拖拉机拥有量与事故起数的关联度最大;事故起数关联度最大的是机械故障;驾车3年以上的驾驶员是事故发生的高危人群。     

土地违法行为的经济学分析

行为人当其预期可以获得一定的经济利益时，便实施违法行为；相反，当其觉得无利可图时，便放弃这种行为。为此，试从经济分析的角度探讨土地违法行为的“成本”、“效益”关系，希望从成本、效益等因素人手，寻求遏制土地违法行为的有效途径以及健全土地法制的对策。     

新型山药收获机下支撑支架的设计与分析

山药收获机下支撑支架是根据主旋转支撑装置的离地高度和开沟深度设计的,在实际作业过程中,链刀切削阻力、螺旋刀切割阻力、输送机构支撑力、油缸的推拉力最终都由下支撑支架承载,作用力较为复杂,容易发生变形和断裂;且链刀切入土壤产生的振动、链节和链轮齿的啮合会给链传动带来工作的不平稳性和有规律的振动,可能会引起共振。为此,在进行山药收获机工作装置设计时,首先采用有限元方法对下支撑支架进行静力学分析,并在静力学分析的基础之上对其进行预应力模态分析,以评估设计的合理性,对结构进行优化。     

基于视景仿真技术的联合收割机牵引及加载性能研究

随着农业机械化的不断发展,联合收割机的应用越来越普遍,大大地提高了农业生产效率。然而,在联合收割机使用中还存在一些驾驶员视域不开阔、可视环境差等不安全因素。针对这些问题,本文引入了视景仿真技术概念,通过构建基于视景仿真技术的联合收割机牵引及加载性能模型,对联合收割机的牵引及加载性能进行仿真分析。结果显示,将视景仿真技术应用与联合收割机,方便了驾驶员及时掌握实地信息,提高了牵引性能和加载性能,降低了驾驶危险系数。     

灰关联决策在水质面板数据处理中的扩展及应用

针对面板数据灰色关联决策分析评价问题,在经典灰色关联分析和灰色综合评价方法的基础上,构建面板数据灰色关联决策评价模型。将灰色关联决策方法扩展到面板数据分析中,解决了小样本面板数据的灰色评价分析问题。将这种方法应用于水环境面板数据质量评价中,经实例计算验证了面板数据灰色关联决策评价模型的稳定性、合理性和实用性,为水环境面板数据质量分析评价提供了可行的计算思路和方法。     

Michigan Mute Swan Management: A Case Study to Understand Contentious Natural Resource Management Issues

U.S. state fish and wildlife agencies have responded to perceived ecological and social threats posed by mute swans by implementing population control strategies. In Michigan, some stakeholder groups have vocally opposed particular control activities. To better understand and characterize key aspects of the underlying media dialogue about mute swan management in Michigan, one factor in the development of public perceptions about wildlife issues, we conducted a qualitative content analysis of Michigan-specific online news articles. Results revealed tensions between stakeholder groups about management priorities were rooted in differing ideas about healthy social and ecological systems, appropriate wildlife behavior, and the acceptability of lethal control (i.e., shooting living birds). Characterizing which stakeholder groups aligned with particular arguments might allow managers to tailor and direct messaging to specific audiences.     

The distributions of Chinese yak breeds in response to climate change over the past 50 years

The effects of prior climate change on yak breed distributions are uncertain. Here, we measured changes in the distributions of 12 yak breeds over the past 50 years in China and examined whether the changes could be attributed to climate change. Long‐term records of yak breed distribution, grey relational analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques and attribution methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of several yak breeds have changed in multiple directions, mainly shifting northward or westward, and most of these changes are related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past years, the suitable range and the distribution centers of certain yak breeds have changed with fluctuation and have mainly shifted northward, eastward or southward. The consistency of observed versus predicted changes in distribution boundaries or distribution centers is higher for certain yak breeds. Changes in the eastern distribution boundary of two yak breeds over the past 50 years can be attributed to climate change.     

An 8bp indel in exon 1 of Ghrelin gene associated with chicken growth

Ghrelin, acts as the endogenous ligand for growth hormone secretagogues receptor (GHS-R), is a novel growth hormone (GH) releasing peptide with reported effects on food intake in chickens. In this study, an 8 bp indel polymorphism in exon 1 of the chicken Ghrelin (cGHRL) gene was genotyped in a F(2) designed full-sib population to analyze its associations with chicken growth and carcass traits. Later, mRNA level in the proventriculus was determined by real-time PCR to reveal the expression feature of cGHRL gene. Result showed that this 8 bp indel was significantly associated with body weight at the age of 28 days (BW28) and 56 days (BW56), eviscerated weight (EW) and leg muscle weight (LMW) (P<0.05), highly significantly associated with hatch weight (HW), BW14, 21, 35, 42, 49, 90 and body length (BL), dressed weight (DW), eviscerated weight with giblet (EWG), wing weight (WW), breast muscle weight (BMW) and head and neck weight (HNW) (P<0.01). Meanwhile, A allele (with 'CTAACCTG') was positive for chicken growth as individuals with AA genotype had the highest value of all traits. Analysis on cGhrelin mRNA level revealed that it differed significantly among individuals with three genotypes (P<0.05). Individuals with AB genotype had the highest mRNA level, whereas that of AA had the lowest one. It was concluded that this 8 bp indel of cGHRL gene was significantly associated with most body weight and body composition traits, and negative effect of endogenous Ghrelin on chicken growth were indicated by this study.     

A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: I. Model description

A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.