理性看待当前的蔬菜价格波动

分析了中国当前蔬菜价格低迷的现状,剖析了价格持续走低的原因,展望了后市蔬菜价格的运行趋势,揭示了蔬菜价格波动的合理性,提出应科学、辩证、理性地去认识其波动,使市场在蔬菜资源配置中发挥决定性作用,进而从消费引导、扶持政策、监测预警、产销模式等角度提出相关政策建议。     

近期国内棉花市场行情分析与展望

受政策调整预期、植棉成本不断上升、种植业结构调整等因素影响,2014年中国棉花播种面积普遍下降。2014年以来,皮棉价格震荡下行,国内外价差缩小;棉花临储工作全部完成,收储630.7万t;棉花进口量大幅减少,国内纺纱量有所增长,纺织品服装出口略有恢复。棉花目标价格政策对市场影响尚未完全展现,未来市场不确定性仍然较大。受国内经济增速放缓、棉花目标价格政策和储备棉投放新政实施等多种因素影响,预计短期内国内棉花价格将继续下行。     

新农村住宅中太阳能采暖研究

结合新农村住宅用综合能源价格法对太阳能地板采暖与常规热源进行经济效益对比,还对太阳能采暖进行节能效益分析、环保效益分析,得出太阳能采暖在新农村建设中值得推广的结论。     

连云港市区土地级别调整的实践性研究

从连云港市最近几年土地利用的实际发展情况和要求出发,探讨了其城市土地级别体系调整的必要性和合理性,以及技术路线和技术方法,建立了连云港市新的土地级别体系。     

蚕茧价格与蚕茧产量波动关系的分析

分析了 1979～ 1995年蚕茧可比价格环比指数和蚕茧产量环比指数的变化趋势、蚕茧可比价格和蚕茧产量对蚕茧可比产值增加的贡献度以及蚕茧产量的价格弹性值的变化。结果表明 ,蚕茧产量对茧价反应的理论滞后期为 4年 ,茧价仍是制约蚕业生产发展的主要因素 ,它对蚕业生产的刺激作用并未弱化 ,蚕茧价格对蚕业生产的弱波趋势尚未表现。     

城市地价监测点配置模式研究

地价监测点配置关系到城市地价水平的真实反映，影响到我国城市地价监测体系的系统性和规范性。本文提出以空间分层抽样技术为基础，首先确定城市地价监测点总量，然后选择一定的指标，分别确定地价监测点在城市内不同区域、不同用地类型、不同土地级别中的分布，经综合平衡，最后确定地价监测点配置方案。该模式解决了我国当前地价监测体系建立中如何配置监测点这一技术问题。     

农用地估价方法探讨

为合理开发利用我国农用地资源，对农用地的估价方法进行了探讨，研究了根据农用地的价格特点，估价的原则，在确定了农用土地地质量价值、社会保障价值、社会稳定价值、环境价值不同的价值内涵下，如何选择不同的估价方法。     

Application of Intelligent Neural Network on Prediction of Time Series Signal

The research of neural network has been maturated both in theory and practical application since 1980's, and also been employed into the prediction and analysis of nonlinear time series signal in the field of signal process system. Concerning with the problem of time series signal prediction based on traditional neural network, such as black box, poor accuracy, and facing the shortage of post knowledge, this paper presents a different neural network prediction model from the traditional ones, based on intelligent neural cell model and employing the iterative prediction method. Through the example on stock price prediction, the prediction accuracy and practical value are proved.     

Revenue risk management, risk aversion and the use of Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy Cattle insurance

The Livestock Gross Margin Insurance for Dairy Cattle is a federally reinsured insurance program that enables US dairy producers to establish minimum levels of milk income net of feed cost. Given the structure of this program there are an infinite number of possible contract designs based on the choice of deductible level and proportion of production insured. Adding to this complexity, producers vary in their risk preferences, which affect the incentive to insure their margin. It is unclear as to how producers may adopt this program for revenue risk management. This paper investigates the interplay between producer risk preferences, contract design and the subsidization of premium in determining program coverage. We undertook this analysis within an expected utility framework. Optimal contracts under different rates of constant relative rate of risk aversion and subsidies were analyzed using a nonlinear optimization model. We found that total optimal coverage increased significantly with the level of risk of aversion at lower deductibles but as deductible level increased, the level of risk aversion had a lesser impact on total optimal coverages. As expected, at the same deductible and risk aversion levels, inclusion of a premium subsidy increased the total optimal coverage.     

农业水资源管理机制研究

在分析农业水资源管理存在的主要问题基础上，着重探讨了高效节水农业水资源管理机制：（1）面对市场，改革现行的行政管理体制，实施“事企”剥离；（2）拉动经济杠杆，建立节水灌溉经济激励机制；（3）建立用户参与管理决策的民主管理机制；（4）建立科学的水价体系，促进地表、地下、空中水联调；（5）制定《节水法》，促进节水农业发展和水管理机制的转变。