Assessing the potential impacts of climate change and their conservation implications in Japan: A case study of conifers

The Japanese archipelago is a biodiversity hotspot with a unique regional climate influenced by the Asian monsoon circulation, surrounding seas, and complex topography. Japan has numerous mountains and islands, which are potentially vulnerable to climate change. This study evaluated the potential impact of climate change on species diversity in Japan, using 25 conifer tree species as a case study. We applied ensemble models based on generalised additive models, artificial neural networks, generalised boostedmodels, and random forests to species’ locality records at 1 km² resolution. The results indicated a substantial impact, such that 80% of the species may lose over half of their current climatically suitable areas by 2100. The lower altitudinal range limits were projected to shift upwards by 293 m on average, suggesting that alpine/sub-alpine and sub-boreal species may face widespread local extinctions. The impacts on sub-alpine species may be moderated by assisted migration to the northern island where they currently do not occur. However, climatically suitable areas for these species and sub-boreal species that occur on the island overlapped significantly, indicating that assisted migration may entail the risk of introducing biotic competition or interbreeding. Thus, rugged topography and dispersal barriers between islands are likely to amplify the future impacts of climate change in Japan. Limited areas in the central mountain region were identified as potential bioclimatic refugia, which should be conserved as a priority.     

全球河流输沙量分布格局及其影响因素

研究河流输沙量具有重要的理论和实践意义。近60年在气候变化和人类活动日益增强的背景下,全球众多河流输沙量都发生显著变化。基于全球河流输沙量数据库和区域河流输沙量研究成果,从全球尺度对全球河流输沙量现状、输沙量空间分布格局及其影响因素、输沙量变化及其影响因素3方面进行分析研究。结果表明:(1)全球河流年均总输沙量在2×10~(10) t左右,对全球主要36条河流输沙量数据分析表明大多数河流输沙量显著减少;(2)地质地貌条件是河流输沙量控制性因素,气象水文条件和人类活动对河流间输沙量差异的贡献大致相当;(3)对各气候带的代表性河流研究表明,相比较气候变化,全球河流输沙量变化主要受人类活动的影响。未来全球河流总输沙量会因人类活动尤其是大坝建设的影响而继续减少。     

Human and climatic drivers of land and water use from 1997 to 2019 in Tarim River basin,China

Climate and human activities change spatial and temporal distribution of water and land use. The Tarim River, the largest inland river in China, faced a long-term exploitation of land and water over a rapid economic development. We analyzed land and water use from 1997 to 2019 in Tarim River Basin by Landsat images, and data on hydrology, climate, population, economy and PM_2.5 (air particulate matter ≤2.5 μm). Agricultural land expanded the fastest (4–11%), followed by natural vegetation (15–16%) and water area (4–5%) with population and economic increase. Air quality (PM_2.5 μg m⁻³) improved in upper (62–27) and middle (48–17) reaches. The water area in lower increase 5% because of ecological water delivery since 2000. Land use in the lower reach was dominated by agriculture, where the downstream runoff consumption increased by 6.8 times. The average annual air temperature and precipitation gradually increased by 0.5 °C and 51 mm in source and 0.9 °C and 30 mm in main reaches. The average annual water consumption in upper and middle reaches was 4 × 10⁹ m³, accounting for 87% of input runoff in the main reach. Water consumption in middle reach increased by 33 times in 2009–2017. The industry structure was changing from primary to secondary and tertiary industry. To sum up, implementation of water saving strategies and ecological water delivery restored local ecology. Sustainable strategies should be applied facing industrialization. Furthermore, changing the industry structure and restoring the degraded farmlands to grasslands or forests would keep sustainability of Tarim River Basin.     

Land Use and Soil Organic Carbon in China’s Village Landscapes

Village landscapes, which integrate small-scale agriculture with housing, forestry, and a host of other land use practices, cover more than 2 million square kilometers across China. Village lands tend to be managed at very fine spatial scales (≤ 30 m), with managers both adapting their practices to existing variation in soils and terrain (e.g., fertile plains vs. infertile slopes) and also altering soil fertility and even terrain by terracing, irrigation, fertilizing, and other land use practices. Relationships between fine-scale land management patterns and soil organic carbon (SOC) in the top 30 cm of village soils were studied by sampling soils within fine-scale landscape features using a regionally weighted landscape sampling design across five environmentally distinct sites in China. SOC stocks across China’s village regions (5 Pg C in the top 30 cm of 2 × 10 6 km 2 ) represent roughly 4% of the total SOC stocks in global croplands. Although macroclimate varied from temperate to tropical in this study, SOC density did not vary significantly with climate, though it was negatively correlated with regional mean elevation. The highest SOC densities within landscapes were found in agricultural lands, especially paddy, the lowest SOC densities were found in nonproductive lands, and forest lands tended toward moderate SOC densities. Due to the high SOC densities of agricultural lands and their predominance in village landscapes, most village SOC was found in agricultural land, except in the tropical hilly region, where forestry accounted for about 45% of the SOC stocks. A surprisingly large portion of village SOC was associated with built structures and with the disturbed lands surrounding these structures, ranging from 18% in the North China Plain to about 9% in the tropical hilly region. These results confirmed that local land use practices, combined with local and regional variation in terrain, were associated with most of the SOC variation within and across China’s village landscapes and may be an important cause of regional variation in SOC.     

Inferring biological soil crust successional stage using combined PLFA, DGGE, physical and biophysiological analyses

Arid areas are highly sensitive to climate change and are ideal model systems to study the potential impact of climate change on species' community structure. Biological soil crust (BSC) formation plays an ecological role in a number of key processes in the development of dry ecosystems. It was hypothesized that BSC succession and function are affected by aridity level and limited by rainfall. Furthermore, it is possible to infer the direction of the BSC succession based on aridity level, and the latter can imitate future climate change scenarios. The objectives of this study were to investigate the microbial biomass and diversity of the BSC structure in three sites differing in aridity level (semiarid, arid and hyper-arid), by combining physical and biophysiological measurements with 16S rRNA gene fragment and phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analyses. Physical and biophysiological parameters of the BSC were significantly influenced by aridity level. Total protein and polysaccharide contents were strongly correlated with total PLFA-based microbial biomass. Gram-positive biomarkers and microbial biomass were significantly higher in the wettest (semiarid) site than in the driest (hyper-arid) one. Multivariate-analysis based ordination of the PLFA data segregated the cluster of semiarid data from that of the hyper-arid site, while data from the arid site were dispersed between the two. The phylogenetic distribution of prominent 16S rRNA bacterial gene sequences along the aridity levels was in agreement with the PLFA analysis: the hyper-arid site was dominated by the cyanobacterium Microcoleus vaginatus, while diverse populations of cyanobacteria and soil bacteria were found in the other sites. These complementary tools allowed a simple and sensitive measurement of the influence of aridity levels on BSC successional stage. The results demonstrate that different aridity levels correspond to different BSC successional stages and those differences can be used as parameters for global change scenarios.     

基于CSLE的湖北省土壤侵蚀时空变化特征

以湖北省为研究区,利用CSLE模型计算1990—2015年的土壤侵蚀模数,借助GIS空间分析方法揭示多时期土壤侵蚀的时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）湖北省主要为微度侵蚀,其次为轻度侵蚀,中度侵蚀及以上等级侵蚀所占面积较小,轻度侵蚀、中度侵蚀、强烈侵蚀、极强烈侵蚀和剧烈侵蚀面积25年间分别减少11 267.0,497.6,176.9,307.7,313.7 km²,减幅分别为27.39%,13.85%,11.79%,24.88%和56.04%。（2）总侵蚀面积先减再增后持续减少,其中极剧烈和剧烈侵蚀面积下降明显。侵蚀强度在不同时期的变化呈现空间异质性。1990—1995年、2000—2005年和2010—2015年土壤侵蚀以好转为主,土壤侵蚀强度降低区域1990—1995年集中在恩施、咸宁,1995—2000年集中在恩施、十堰,2000—2005年集中在神农架林区、宜昌市和秭归县周边,2005—2010年集中在黄冈和黄石市,2010—2015年集中在神农架林区和宜昌市;其中旱地与裸地好转情况最为明显。在1995—2000年和2005—2010年土壤侵蚀加剧,土壤侵蚀强度加剧区域1990—2000年集中在神农架局部地区,2000—2005年集中在十堰市,2005—2010年集中在竹溪县;2010—2015年集中在恩施市、宣恩县和鹤峰县,其中林地与旱地表现最为明显。土壤侵蚀主要变化区域表现在25年间,坡度<8°区域轻度以上等级侵蚀面积逐年增加,这与人类活动对地表负面扰动（生产建设项目、坡耕地农业生产、其他人类活动导致的土地利用类型转换）等主要集中在地形较为平缓的区域有很大关系。坡度在8°~35°区域轻度以上等级侵蚀面积明显减少,主要表现在退耕还林和水保工程治理的实施取得成效明显。     

生态建设重点区域土地利用变化及驱动因素分析——以潮河流域为例

以密云水库的重要水源地和生态建设重点区域——潮河流域为研究区,基于GIS技术,分析了20世纪80年代中后期到2005年流域的土地利用/覆被变化;在此基础上,构建了土地利用变化驱动力指标体系,对流域土地利用变化的驱动力进行了主成分分析,分析了1981—2005年政策、经济、人口、科技进步等驱动因素对该流域土地利用变化的影响。结果表明:潮河流域的土地利用类型以林地为主,20世纪80年代中后期到2005年,流域林地、草地的变化最为显著,其中林地面积增加最多,草地面积则大幅减少;政策因素是影响该流域土地利用格局变化的主导因素。     

Urbanization Development under Climate Change: Hydrological Responses in a Peri‐Urban Mediterranean Catchment

Relatively few studies have so far investigated the hydrological impacts of urbanization in Mediterranean catchments, and particularly in peri‐urban catchments experiencing relatively rapid and large changes in their land‐use mosaic. This study uses data‐based model simulations to investigate such impacts, with the Ribeira dos Covões catchment in Portugal as a concrete Mediterranean peri‐urban catchment example. We distinguish the impacts of urbanization from those of climatic change on the water flux partitioning and connectivity in the catchment over the period 1958–2013. Decrease in precipitation over this period has primarily driven decreases in annual runoff and actual evapotranspiration, while the urbanization development has primarily changed the relative flux partitioning and connectivity pattern in the catchment. The relative contribution of overland flow to annual and seasonal runoff has increased, keeping the absolute overland flow more or less intact, while the baseflow contribution to the stream network has decreased. Methodologically, the present simulation approach provides a relevant means for distinguishing main drivers of change in hydrological flux partitioning and connectivity under concurrent urbanization and climatic changes. © 2017 The Authors. Land Degradation & Development Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Decreasing of methanogenic activity in paddy fields via lowering ponding water temperature: A modeling investigation

Methane (CH₄) is a potent greenhouse gas and the huge CH₄ fluxes emitted from paddy fields can prejudice the eco-compatibility of rice cultivation. CH₄ production in submerged rice crops is known to be highly influenced by water temperature. Hence, lowering ponding water temperature (LPWT) could be an option to mitigate CH₄ emissions from paddy environments when it is possible either to irrigate with slightly colder water or to increase ponding water depth. However, paddy soil is a complex environment in which many processes are simultaneously influenced by temperature, leading to a difficult prediction of LPWT effects. For this reason, LPWT efficiency is here theoretically investigated with a one-dimensional process-based model that simulates the vertical and temporal dynamics of water temperature in soil and the fate of chemical compounds that influence CH₄ emissions. The model is validated with literature measured data of CH₄ emissions from a paddy field under time-variable temperature regime. Based on modeling results, LPWT appears promising since the simulated reduction of CH₄ emissions reaches about −12% and −49% for an LPWT equal to −5 °C during the ripening stage only (last 30 days of growing season, when rice is less sensitive to temperature variations) and −2 °C over the whole growing season, respectively. LPWT affects CH₄ emissions either directly (decreasing methanogenic activity), indirectly (decreasing activity of bacteria using alternative electron acceptors), or both. The encouraging results provide the theoretical ground for further laboratory and field studies aimed to investigate the LPWT feasibility in paddy environments.     

Conversion of a tropical forest into agroforest alters the fine root-related carbon flux to the soil

Large areas of remaining tropical forests are affected by anthropogenic disturbances of various intensities. These disturbances alter the structure of the forest ecosystem and consequently its carbon budget. We analysed the role of fine root dynamics in the soil carbon budget of tropical moist forests in South-east Asia along a gradient of increasing disturbance intensity. Fine root production, fine root turnover, and the associated carbon fluxes from the fine root system to the soil were estimated with three different approaches in five stands ranging from an old growth forest with negligible anthropogenic disturbance to a cacao agroforestry system with planted shade trees. Annual fine root production and mortality in three natural forest sites with increasing canopy openness decreased continuously with increasing forest disturbance, with a reduction of more than 45% between the undisturbed forest and the forest with large timber extraction. Cacao agroforestry stands had higher fine root production and mortality rates than forest with large timber extraction but less than undisturbed forest. The amount of carbon annually transferred to the soil carbon pool through fine root mortality was highest in the undisturbed forest and generally decreased with increasing forest use intensity. However, root-related C flux was also relatively high in the plantation with planted shading trees. In contrast, the relative importance of C transfer from root death in the total above- and below-ground C input to the soil increased with increasing forest use intensity and was even similar to the C input via leaf litter fall in the more intensively managed agroforest. We conclude that moderate to heavy disturbance in South-east Asian tropical moist forests has a profound impact on fine root turnover and the related carbon transfer to the soil.