气候变化对临沂冬小麦主要生育期的影响及适播期研究

为了研究气候变化对临沂市冬小麦生产的影响,确定合理播期和适宜的田间管理措施。利用2001—2021年临沂市气象资料和农业农村部门苗情调查数据,同时参考1962—2000年临沂市历史天气数据,采用线性趋势性预测对小麦生育期温度、积温以及主要生育期日期和持续时间进行变化规律分析。结果表明:临沂市冬小麦适播期和各生育期均对气候变化发生了不同的响应,适播期为10月8—19日,最佳播期为10月11—14日;分蘖期出现反复降温频率变高,促进了小麦冬前抗寒锻炼,利于形成壮苗;冬前积温增多和越冬期延迟,间接推迟了适播期,为上一季玉米晚收创造了条件;返青大幅提前和返青后积温显著增加,大幅缩短了小麦停止生长和越冬时间,增加了冬小麦实际生长时间,有利于冬小麦苗情转化;拔节期大幅提前,使小麦更容易遭受晚霜冻(冷)害和倒春寒;4月和5月温度下降为小麦抽穗、扬花、灌浆提供了更好的气候条件,特别是5月温度下降既减少了干热风的发生机率又利于小麦后期灌浆。确定了临沂市冬小麦适播期,为小麦全生育期田间管理和高产栽培提供了依据。     

Chemical changes of kenaf core binderless boards during hot pressing (I): influence of the pressing temperature condition

Self-bonding is the main factor of the performance expression of binderless boards, and therefore its clarification is considered to be an important issue. For this purpose, a series of chemical analyses were conducted on kenaf core binderless boards and their chemical changes during the hot-pressing process are discussed in this article. First of all, binderless boards were prepared from kenaf core powder at different pressing temperatures (without steam-explosion process) and were used for chemical analyses after they were reduced into powders and extracted with methanol. To investigate their chemical changes, lignin, holocellulose, and neutral sugar contents were determined, Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra were recorded, and the nitrobenzene oxidation procedure was applied. As a result, it was found that parts of lignin and hemicelullose were decomposed during the hot-pressing process; however, the contribution of the resulting fractions to selfbonding was not observed. In addition, progress of condensation reactions in lignin and the formation of chemical bonds by low molecular weight conjugated carbonyl compounds in methanol extractives were observed. Thermal softening of lignin is also suggested to play an important role in the expression of board performance.     

Conservation policies and planning under climate change

Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two policy objectives focusing on (1) the protection on current (native) species, and (2) all species, including immigrating species. The trade-offs between the protection of native species versus all species is illustrated. The study shows that the development of prediction models of future species distributions as the basis of decision rules can be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of conservation plans. Finally, it is discussed how more adaptive strategies, that allow for the redirection of resources from protected sites to privately-owned sites, may increase the effectiveness of the conservation networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics.     

中药复方制剂对大鼠耐缺氧作用的研究

对大鼠进行不同中药复方的常压耐缺氧效果实验。结果表明:各中药复方和枸杞子均能显著延长大鼠常压缺氧存活时间(P<0.05),其中复方3作用效果最明显(p<0.01)。复方3在提高大鼠缺氧存活时间的同时又能降低血液红细胞和Hb增加率,升高缺氧大鼠血液SOD、GSH-Px活性,降低血清MDA含量。透射电镜观察表明:各中药复方对缺氧心肌具有明显保护作用。提示各中药复方的耐缺氧作用机理之一可能是通过提高SOD、GSH-PX活性增强清除自由基而实现的。     

气候变化对山东省农业生产影响研究

从山东省1985～2009年年平均气温入手,得出山东省的年平均气温有逐年升高的趋势;进而从农业生产入手,运用计量经济学中的回归分析方法分析了影响山东省农业生产的主要因素为化肥施用量与农业机械总动力,其同时也能增加温室气体的排放,导致气候变暖;最后根据模型给出了农业生产的几个建议。     

农作物分布格局动态变化的遥感监测——以东北三省为例

【目的】当前对涉及到耕地内部不同作物空间分布及其变化的研究较少。本文旨在探讨大尺度作物种植面积和分布格局遥感提取方法及景观生态学中景观格局指数在作物格局动态变化分析中的应用。【方法】基于2005年和2010年作物生育期内遥感影像全覆盖的MODIS-NDVI数据,利用RS、GIS技术,通过分析东北地区主要作物（水稻、玉米、大豆）的种植结构、物候历及NDVI曲线特征,建立不同作物面积遥感提取模型,提取大尺度农作物空间分布格局信息。同时,利用景观格局指数方法分析农作物格局动态变化特征和变化规律。【结果】与多年平均统计数据比较,基于MODIS遥感数据提取的作物面积信息,2005年和2010年平均精度达到了90%以上;5年间,东北地区主要作物种植结构发生了较大变化。其中大豆平均斑块面积减少,面积年动态度为-4.47%,水稻和玉米平均斑块面积均增加,且5年的变化幅度均超过20%。【结论】成本和收益是作物面积增加或减少的主要原因;用中等分辨率的遥感数据进行大尺度作物面积提取的方法是可行的;景观生态学中格局指数可以用来分析耕地内部作物格局的动态变化规律。     

黑河莺落峡年径流量时序变化的趋势特性及丰枯演化规律研究

黑河是我国一条重要的内陆河,对黑河流域年径流量的变化特征进行深入研究,具有重要的现实意义。文中应用Kendal趋势检验法、R/S分析法、条件概率分析法和M arkov过程基本的理论,对黑河上游莺落峡水文站1945~2000年实测年径流量时序变化的趋势特性及丰枯演化规律进行了研究。结果表明:莺落峡年径流量变化具有如下主要规律:呈增加趋势,但是并不显著;变化存在正的持续性,预计进入21世纪后将继续呈微弱增加趋势;无论何种长度的连续年数,都是连枯的概率最大、连平的概率次之,连丰的概率最小;径流枯水状态的自保守性最强,平水状态的自保守性次之,丰水状态的自保守性最弱;无论处于何种初始状态,径流向枯水状态转移的概率最大,向平水状态转移的概率次之,向丰水状态转移的概率最小。在径流的长期演化过程中,枯水状态的出现机会占有优势,平水状态和枯水状态的出现机会相同。     

Litter- and ecosystem-driven decomposition under elevated CO2 and enhanced N deposition in a Sphagnum peatland

Peatlands represent massive global C pools and sinks. Carbon accumulation depends on the ratio between net primary production and decomposition, both of which can change under projected increases of atmospheric CO₂ and N deposition. The decomposition of litter is influenced by 1) the quality of the litter, and 2) the microenvironmental conditions in which the litter decomposes. This study aims at experimentally testing the effects of these two drivers in the context of global change. We studied the in situ litter decomposition from three common peatland species (Eriophorum vaginatum, Polytrichum strictum and Sphagnum fallax) collected after one year of litter production under pre-treatment conditions (elevated CO₂: 560 ppm or enhanced N: 3 g m⁻² y⁻¹ NH₄NO₃) and decomposed the following year under treatment conditions (same as pre-treatment). By considering the cross-effects between pre-treatments and treatments, we distinguished between the effects on mass loss of 1) the pre-treatment-induced litter quality and 2) the treatment conditions under which the litters were decomposing. The combination between CO₂ pre-treatment and CO₂ treatment reduced Polytrichum decomposition by −24% and this can be explained by litter quality-driven decomposition changes brought by the pre-treatment. CO₂ pre-treatment reduced Eriophorum litter quality, although this was not sufficient to predict decomposition. The N addition pre-treatment reduced the decomposition of Eriophorum, due to enhanced lignin and soluble phenols concentrations in the initial litter, and reduced litter-driven losses of starch and enhanced litter-driven losses of soluble phenols. While decomposition indices based on initial litter quality provide a broad explanation of quantitative and qualitative decomposition, they can only be taken as first approximations. Indeed, the microbial ATP activity, the litter N loss and resulting litter quality, were strongly altered irrespective of the compounds' initial concentration and by means of processes that occurred independently of the initial litter-qualitative changes. The experimental design was valuable to assess litter- and ecosystem-driven decomposition pathways simultaneously or independently. The ability to separate these two drivers makes it possible to attest the presence of litter-qualitative changes even without any litter biochemical determinations, and shows the screening potential of this approach for future experiments dealing with multiple plant species.     

Looking back on development and disaster‐related displacement and resettlement,anticipating climate‐related displacement in the Asia Pacific region

The realisation that climate change might necessitate resettlement of people displaced initially raised interest in the experience of development‐forced displacement and resettlement (DFDR). Looking back, in 1980 the first international policy on involuntary resettlement was approved to address perceived weaknesses in state property and expropriation law to safeguard people in the way of development projects. Since then international policy and praxis have brought global attention to developmentally displaced people but have not guaranteed them an effective safeguard. Recently, renewed attention has focussed on state legal and governance frameworks substantively and procedurally. Identifying four key policy objectives that resonate with climate change displacement I analyse their treatment in a data base of DFDR laws and regulations from 40 Asia Pacific states. This analysis finds overall little legal congruence. Innovative new formulations in some Asian state laws address recent public criticisms and research findings, but mostly are yet to demonstrate positive outcomes for displaced people. Pacific states increasingly abandon expropriation law to negotiate lease terms for public infrastructure projects with customary landowners that do not extinguish customary title. Any laws governing climate change relocations must protect rights, livelihoods, well‐being, inclusive decision‐making and community initiatives with procedures whilst not relinquishing climate‐change‐reducing action.     

基于SWAT模型的北江流域气候变化的水文响应

[目的]建立SWAT分布式水文模型,模拟分析气候变化对北江流域径流的影响。[方法]以北江流域为研究对象,运用分布式水文模型SWAT对流域径流进行模拟,以流域出口石角站1961～1980年月流量数据对模型参数进行率定,用1981～1990年月流量数据对模型参数进行了验证。设置15种气候变化情景,利用率定好的SWAT模型模拟了未来气候变化对北江流域径流的影响。[结果]SWAT模型模拟精度较高,可用于北江流域径流模拟。在降水量不变的情况下,温度升高将会使蒸发量增大,径流深减小;气温保持不变时,降水量增加会使蒸发量和径流深有所增加。[结论]该研究可为北江流域水资源管理提供参考依据。