基于PCA-ARIMA模型的高血压发病率预测

目的高血压发病率是政府和相关医学工作者预防和监测高血压的重要依据之一。方法利用主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA)对因子进行线性筛选,获得保留因子后利用ARIMA进行建模预测,即为PCA-ARIMA多维时间序列组合预测模型。结果高血压发病率的拟合与独立预测结果表明,PCA-ARIMA优于PCA-MLR、ARIMA等参比模型。结论本文提出的基于主成分分析和ARIMA模型(PCA-ARIMA模型)的建模有助于提高模型的预测精度。     

Multiple intestinal lymphomatous polyposis in a Jindo dog

A male, 5-year-old Jindo dog underwent enterectomy and enteroanastomosis due to ileus of the intestine at a local veterinary hospital. Grossly, the excised intestine showed markedly thickened multinodular masses in the serosal layer of the upper part, and soft-to-firm, cream-colored neoplastic masses that displayed extensive nodular mucosal protuberances into the lumen. The neoplastic masses were filled with large round cells that were ovoid in shape and they had pale and/or hyperchromatic nuclei. The neoplastic cells had mainly infiltrated into the mucosal and submucosal layers, and they had diffusely invaded the muscular and serosal layers. Therefore, the diagnosis of canine multiple intestinal malignant lymphomatous polyposis was made based on the gross and histopathological findings. The origin of these tumor cells was determined to be B-cells since they were positive for anti-CD20.     

不同复种方式下作物的粗蛋白和可消化干物质总产量比较

在南京对6种不同复种方式下作物的营养物质产量进行了比较研究,结果表明:多花黑麦草Lolium multiflorum粗蛋白总产量和可消化干物质总产量分别是小麦Triticum eastivum的1.45倍和1.26倍;杂交狼尾草Pennisetum americanum×P.purpureum粗蛋白总产量和可消化干物质总产量平均值分别是水稻Oryza sativa的2.06倍和1.61倍;6种复种方式中,粗蛋白总产量和可消化干物质总产量以多花黑麦草-杂交狼尾草为最高,黑麦Secale cereal-杂交狼尾草其次.集约农区发展草食性畜禽养殖业以二季均种植牧草效率较高.     

高校教学网络的科学管理

本从NOVELL网常规管理、建立多重配置的无盘工作站、网络的安全运行措施三个方面探讨NOVELL教学网络的科学管理。     

Multiple use forestry and preservation of coniferous forests in Norway

The concepts of Multiple‐use forestry and preservation of “virgin”; coniferous forests are elements of an ongoing debate in Norway, regarding aesthetical and biological consequences of current forest management practices. A study, based on the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), was performed during the fall of 1990. Data were collected through in‐person interviews of 1204 persons above 15 years of age.

The main objectives of the study were to analyze: 1) Attitudes toward the present state of Norwegian forests, 2) Attitudes toward and maximum willingness to pay for changes in current forest management, 3) Preferences and maximum willingness to pay for preservation of “virgin”; coniferous forests, and 4) Attitudes toward society's right to impose restrictions on forest management on private forest land.

Based on responses to statements related to the forest area people usually visit, the study showed a low degree of conflict regarding the present state of Norwegian forests. A ranking of possible results of two alternative forest management strategies, i.e. 1) a more cautious forest management or 2) preservation of “virgin”; coniferous forests, gave the highest average scores to “Preservation of endangered plants and animals”; and “Preservation of “virgin”; forests for our descendants”;, both related to the second management strategy. The maximum willingness to pay for a more cautious forest management was 277 Norwegian kroner (NOK) per household and year, with a median value of NOK 50. 47% of the sample preferred the preservation alternative A specified by the governmental committee, Barskogutvalget, while 18% preferred alternative B and 9% preferred alternative C, corresponding to the governmental decision. 15% preferred a 0‐alternative, i.e. no further preservation of “virgin”; coniferous forests. Two possible sources of bias, related to the CVM, were tested.     

Prediction of watermelon quality based on vibration spectrum

Judging watermelon quality based on its apparent properties such as size or skin color is difficult. A non-destructive method is employed here, based on vibrational response spectrum, to determine the quality indices of watermelon (Charleston gray). The responses of samples to vibration excitation were recorded by laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV). The phase shift between input and output signals were extracted over a wide frequency range. The total soluble solids (TSS), titratable acidity (TA) and TSS/TA ratio also measured as watermelon quality characters. Stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) as well as partial least square regression (PLS) was applied to extracted vibration spectrums to construct prediction models of watermelon quality. The results showed that performance of SMLR models were better than PLS. The determination coefficients (R²) of SMLR validation models were 0.9976, 0.9985 and 0.9542 for TSS, TA and TSS/TA respectively. It is likely that reduction of cell wall materials to soluble solids during ripening process changes viscoelastic properties of watermelon reflected by vibrational response. This study demonstrated the feasibility of mentioned method for predicting the quality of watermelons in an industrial grading system.     

马铃薯品种(系)的灰色多维综合隶属度评估

为全面客观地分析品种的综合表现,克服以往育种中仅以产量为主,其它性状凭主观判断来选择品种的局限性,我们用灰色多维综合隶属度评估方法对马铃薯品比试验结果进行综合分析评估.结果表明:99-2-2、S-80和中心23为优良品种,细皮红、凉薯97和对照米拉为较好品种,合作88、大西洋和中心24为一般品种.     

教学翻译与大学英语教学

新一轮的大学英语教学改革正在全国进行.改变对教学翻译的认识,提高教学翻译在大学英语教学中的地位,在大学英语教学中进行切实、有效的教学翻译活动,有利于学生英语综合运用能力的提高和复合型人才的培养.     

北京九龙山油松人工林地位指数表的编制及油松林生长与立地因子的关系

北京地处暖温带半湿润季风气候区，地带性植被是暖温带落叶阔叶林。由于长期受     

An analysis of a silvopastoral system for the marginal land in the Southeast United States

Almost 20 million acres of non-forest cropland in the South can be classified as marginal. Demand projections for forest products call for a 40 percent increase by year 2030. Recent regenerated tree acres lag behind harvested acres. Multiple land use practices combining trees and grazing adjust cash flows forward mitigating negative flow period associated with conventional forest production. Profit opportunities for private, non-industrial landowners can be increased by ranking inputs in order of changes to net present value(NPV). A sensitivity analysis of an agroforestry scenario, including trees, beef cattle, and pasture, allows producers to concentrate management efforts where returns are greatest. Model results show greatest returns to NPV was realized from improvement to Chip-N-Saw income. The least increase in NPV came when the cost of control burns was changed.