Analysis of Drought Characteristics and Its Trend Change in Shaanxi Province Based on SPEI and MI

【Objective】 At present, most drought studies were based on historical drought events to analyze the causes and trends. This paper sought to simulate the drought index method when outputting future meteorological data based on CMIP5 model, and explored the characteristics of past and future drought changes in Shaanxi Province, which could provide a basis for the future management of agricultural water resources in Shaanxi Province. 【Method】Based on the historical data of 18 meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province and CMIP5 model, the future meteorological data were output. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) was simulated by comparing three kinds of models. The standard precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) and relative moisture index (MI) were calculated based on the reference crop ET₀ and precipitation data to reflect the drought degree. The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in the past (1958-2017) and in the future (2018-2100) were compared.【Result】Multiple linear regression (MLR) simulation could accurately predict the reference crop ET₀ (RMSE=0.457 mm·d ^-1). In the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the future drought index showed an upward trend. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, there was a sudden change in the drought index in the 1940s. The degree of drought would decrease in the future of Shaanxi Province, and the distribution of drought would be more uneven during the year. In the future, the degree of drought would decrease during summer maize growth season, and the degree of drought would increase during winter wheat growth season.【Conclusion】The characteristics and extent of drought change were different under different RCP scenarios. The changes in drought characteristics reflected by SPEI and MI were basically the same, but there were differences in the changes in some time periods. In order to effectively cope with the negative impact of climate change on dry crop yields, it was necessary to enhance soil water storage and conservation capacity, especially to strengthen drought resistance during the winter wheat growing season.     

多级生物净化系统浮游植物的分析

利用不同生物的功能特性及其间的协同作用,由水生经济植物浮床、芦苇湿地、固定化微生物膜、底栖软体动物和滤食性鱼类组成了多级生物净化系统,除芦苇湿地、滤食性鱼类外,全部设置在多级生物净化水渠中。不仅充分利用了水面,节约了材料、能源,提高了净化效率,而且有效调控和净化了养殖池塘的水质,实现了养殖排放水的循环利用,提高了养殖效益。结果显示：养殖池塘排放水经过多级生物净化后,浮游植物的生物量控制在69．114-43．832mg／L,平均减少率为13．44％～0．47％,蓝藻平均减少率为58．41％-51．63％。     

瓢虫交配行为的研究进展

瓢虫科多数种类是许多重要害虫的捕食性天敌。本文综述了瓢虫科昆虫的交配行为,重点就瓢虫的交配识别、交配选择、交配过程和多次交配等方面进行总结,并对存在的问题以及研究展望进行探讨。     

国内糖价影响因素的多元线性逐步回归分析

通过分析国内食糖价格的变化趋势,并以2009年2月至2012年3月国内食糖均价的月度数据为因变量,构建多元线性逐步回归模型,得到国内食糖价格的主要影响因素,分别为:国际食糖均价、原油价格以及居民消费价格指数(CPI)。本文还对各影响因素进行了分析。     

强化木地板生产的关键设备

以企业生产的关键工序为主线,分析讨论了强化木地板的压贴、剖分、企口加工及倒角处理等设备,供相关企业在设备选型、研究与开发时参考。     

基于Modbus协议的电力监控系统设计

针对ACR系列网络多功能电力仪表的特性完成了上位机监控系统的设计,该系统使用VB语言编写,通过RS232接口,利用MODBUS协议与20个仪表进行通信,将分析得到的电压数据在系统界面上显示。经测试,该设计可满足实际需要。     

搞好绿化是改善环境的关键措施

新形势下,面对出现的洪水泛滥、空气污染、噪音危害等问题,可以通过绿化来解决,以便改善当前的环境状况。     

基于PCA-ARIMA模型的高血压发病率预测

目的高血压发病率是政府和相关医学工作者预防和监测高血压的重要依据之一。方法利用主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA)对因子进行线性筛选,获得保留因子后利用ARIMA进行建模预测,即为PCA-ARIMA多维时间序列组合预测模型。结果高血压发病率的拟合与独立预测结果表明,PCA-ARIMA优于PCA-MLR、ARIMA等参比模型。结论本文提出的基于主成分分析和ARIMA模型(PCA-ARIMA模型)的建模有助于提高模型的预测精度。     

面向重点学科的文献资源保障体系建设研究

重点学科是高校实力的重要标志,围绕重点学科进行馆藏建设是图书馆的一项重要任务,分析了高校图书馆馆藏现状,并提出构建合理化馆藏建议。     

Multiple intestinal lymphomatous polyposis in a Jindo dog

A male, 5-year-old Jindo dog underwent enterectomy and enteroanastomosis due to ileus of the intestine at a local veterinary hospital. Grossly, the excised intestine showed markedly thickened multinodular masses in the serosal layer of the upper part, and soft-to-firm, cream-colored neoplastic masses that displayed extensive nodular mucosal protuberances into the lumen. The neoplastic masses were filled with large round cells that were ovoid in shape and they had pale and/or hyperchromatic nuclei. The neoplastic cells had mainly infiltrated into the mucosal and submucosal layers, and they had diffusely invaded the muscular and serosal layers. Therefore, the diagnosis of canine multiple intestinal malignant lymphomatous polyposis was made based on the gross and histopathological findings. The origin of these tumor cells was determined to be B-cells since they were positive for anti-CD20.