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61.
Density‐dependent processes have repeatedly been shown to have a central role in salmonid population dynamics, but are often assumed to be negligible for populations at low abundances relative to historical records. Density dependence has been observed in overall spring/summer Snake River Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha production, but it is not clear how patterns observed at the aggregate level relate to individual populations within the basin. We used a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach to explore the degree of density dependence in juvenile production for nine Idaho populations. Our results indicate that density dependence is ubiquitous, although its strength varies between populations. We also investigated the processes driving the population‐level pattern and found density‐dependent growth and mortality present for both common life‐history strategies, but no evidence of density‐dependent movement. Overwinter mortality, spatial clustering of redds and limited resource availability were identified as potentially important limiting factors contributing to density dependence. The ubiquity of density dependence for these threatened populations is alarming as stability at present low abundance levels suggests recovery may be difficult without major changes. We conclude that density dependence at the population level is common and must be considered in demographic analysis and management. 相似文献
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《Land Degradation \u0026amp; Development》2017,28(8):2432-2445
We combine high‐resolution soil sampling with lead (Pb) analyses (concentrations and stable isotopes) in two temperate podzols, together with previous data obtained with selective Al and Fe dissolution techniques. We aim to assess how atmospheric Pb is incorporated into the soils during pedogenesis. Partial least squares modelling for Pb concentrations shows that the podzolization process has the largest effect on Pb concentration (80·3% of the variance). The proportion of inorganic secondary compounds, the input of fresh organic matter from the soil surface and the relative abundance of Fe versus Al are responsible for a small part of the Pb concentration variance. Lead isotopic composition (206Pb/207Pb ratios) depends on soil organic matter content either fresh/poorly humified (57·3% of the variance) or humified (24·7% of the variance). The Pb linked to inorganic compounds and the overall podzolization process play a minor role in isotopic signature (5·3 and 3·7% of the variance respectively). Soil pH appears to be the controlling variable of the different transport and retention mechanisms. The relatively low isotopic ratios observed in spodic horizons result from geogenic Pb released through the preferential dissolution of the isotopically distinct most weatherable minerals of the parent material in the eluvial horizons, which undergoes downward mobilization. An accurate knowledge of soil reactive components and formation mechanisms is essential to a correct diagnose of the scope of Pb pollution and a more effective design of remediation strategies. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
64.
Many of the challenges faced by weed ecologists can be met only by the capability to predict the responses of weed populations to changes in their environment or management. In spite of this, a review of papers published in Weed Research suggests that weed ecologists are remarkably reluctant to produce detailed, quantitative predictions. This may result from uncertainty in the accuracy of predictions and indeed, a variety of reasons have been put forward to suggest that the potential utility of weed models may be limited in this regard. In this study, we review the applications to which weed models have been put. Focusing on predictive population modelling, we highlight several limitations that can lead to failures of this approach and we discuss the likely prospects for weed population modelling. We make three points regarding the future of weed modelling. First, owing to prohibitive data requirements, the development of highly mechanistic models that attempt to make detailed predictions of weed population numbers is unlikely to be very successful. Second, data collection for developing weed models needs to be rethought. Weed models are most commonly compromised by a lack of spatial and temporal replication, preventing modellers from measuring parameter variability and error effectively and limiting assessments of model uncertainty. Finally, the utility of models needs to be better appreciated; models are key tools in making long range predictions of how management will affect weed populations, but, we estimate, they are used in only a small fraction of studies. Without the further development of models for weed population dynamics, our ability to predict long-term dynamics will be restricted. 相似文献
65.
Mikayla Plishka Jan M. Sargeant Charlotte Winder Amy L. Greer 《Zoonoses and public health》2022,69(1):23-32
Campylobacter is the second leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States. Although many food production animals carry Campylobacter as commensal bacteria, consumption of poultry is the main source of human infection. Previous research suggests that the biology of Campylobacter results in complete flock colonization within days. However, a recent systematic review found that the on-farm prevalence of Campylobacter varies widely, with some flocks reporting low prevalence. We hypothesized that the low prevalence of Campylobacter in some flocks may be driven by a delayed introduction of the pathogen. The objectives of this study were to (a) develop a deterministic compartmental model that represents the biology of Campylobacter, (b) identify the parameter values that best represent the natural history of the pathogen in poultry flocks and (c) examine the possibility that a delayed introduction of the pathogen is sufficient to replicate the observed low prevalence examples documented in the literature. A deterministic compartmental model was developed to examine the dynamics of Campylobacter in chicken flocks over a 56-day time period prior to movement to the abattoir. The model outcome of interest was the final population prevalence of Campylobacter at day 56. The resulting model that incorporated a high transmission rate (β = 1.04) was able to reproduce the wide range of prevalence estimates observed in the literature when pathogen introduction time is varied. Overall, we established that the on-farm transmission rate of Campylobacter in chickens is likely high and can result in complete colonization of a flock when introduced early. However, delaying the time at which the pathogen enters the flock can reduce the prevalence observed at 56 days. These results highlight the importance of enforcing strict biosecurity measures to prevent or delay the introduction of the bacteria to a flock. 相似文献
66.
Two outbreaks of phocine distemper have severely affected harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations in European and UK waters. The first occurred in 1988 when the causative virus was identified as a new member of the genus morbillivirus. The second outbreak in 2002 was first detected on the same Danish Island of Anholt and involved similar populations and geographical locations. However, despite the obvious similarities between the epidemics, differences in viral transmission and case mortality were found. Harbour seals are highly susceptible to infection while sympatric grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) are resistant but could be important asymptomatic carriers of the disease. Arctic phocid seals remain the most likely source of the virus and grey seals could be the link between these primary hosts and the harbour seal populations further south. Future epidemiological models should therefore consider including multiple host species. The future conservation and management of harbour seal populations vulnerable to PDV relies on the ability to accurately predict the long-term impact on population abundance and distribution. Although knowledge about the behaviour and pathogenesis of the virus has increased substantially and data on host movements and contact rates are accumulating, studies into the determinants of the host range have lagged behind. The development of more realistic epidemiological models should be combined with studies into the factors controlling species and individual susceptibility. Assessing the risk of infection to endangered but currently unexposed potential host species (such as the Hawaiian monk seal, Monachus schauinslandi) is essential for guiding potential conservation management options, such as vaccination 相似文献
67.
红壤中水热耦合转化的实验和数值模拟研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Coupled transfer of soil water and heat in closed columns of homogeneous red soil was studied under laboratory conditions.A coupled model was constructed using soil physical theory,empirical equations and experimental data to predict the coupled transfer.The results show that transport of soil water was affected by temperaature gradient,and the largest net water transport was found in the soil column with initial water content of 0.148m^3m^-3,At the same time,temperature changes with the transport of soil water was in a nonlinear shape as heat parameters wre function of water content,and the changes of temperature were positively correlated with the net amount of water transported.Numerical modelling results show that the predicted values of temperature distribution were close to the observed values,while the predicted values of water content exhibited limited deviation at both ends of the soil column due to the slight temperature changes at both ends .It WAS indicated that the model proposed here was applicable. 相似文献
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69.
Andrés García 《Biological conservation》2006,130(1):25-46
This article documents the conservation status of the herpetofauna in the Pacific lowlands and adjacent Balsas Basin and Chiapas Depression regions and the presents the results of modelling species spatial distributional patterns through GARP analysis, to identify hotspots of species richness, endemic and geographically restricted species in the study area. It also compares the distribution of these hotspots with the distribution of protected areas and intact seasonally tropical dry tropical forests, the dominant vegetation type in the study area and experiencing high deforestation rates. A total of 301 reptiles and amphibian species occur in the study area accounting for a third of the Mexican herpetofauna, and recording high levels of endemism and endangerment. Hotspots of species richness and endemism were located in coastal Jalisco, a considerable portion of the Colima state, as well as scattered areas in Michoacán, Guerrero, and Oaxaca. These areas should receive highest priority for protection. Unfortunately, there was a minimum correspondence when comparing the distribution of actually and proposed protected areas with hotspots identified. Fortunately, areas of high species richness, endemism and restricted species coincided with those where intact seasonally tropical dry tropical forests still exists. These areas should receive high priority in future plans for seasonally tropical dry tropical forests protected areas. It is hoped that this paper will call attention to the need for establishing a network of protected areas in the study area, as has been proposed by previous studies. 相似文献
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