垂直轴风力机叶片动态失速数值模拟

利用数值计算方法研究了一种典型的大高径比垂直轴风力机叶片动态失速现象。在验证数值计算方法可靠的基础上,结合速度矢量图和涡量图,研究了8 m/s风速时风力机在不同尖速比下叶片动态失速现象以及风轮尺寸改变时风轮动态失速流场及其对风力机功率系数的影响规律。研究表明,尖速比过低,增大弦径比和叶片数均导致叶片动态失速和气流分离呈现加剧趋势,削弱风力机的气动性能。对用于城市风力发电的大高径比垂直轴风力机,应使其在最佳尖速比下运行,同时控制弦径比在0.2~0.4之间,叶片数为3或4,以获得较好的气动性能。     

基于启发式Johnson算法优化BP神经网络的水产养殖产量预测模型

针对水产养殖产量预测难的现状,提出一种基于启发式Johnson算法优化的反向传播神经网络(BPNN)的产量预测模型。该模型在传统BP神经网络的基础上,针对网络训练时间长、易陷入局部最优的问题,通过启发式Johnson算法降低输入神经元维度,再结合试凑法确定神经网络隐层个数,构建启发式Johnson反向传播神经网络(HJA-BPNN)学习预测模型。实验结果表明,该模型在山东省对虾海水养殖产量预测中,预测的均方根误差小于传统BP神经网络和GM(1,1),且学习效率相比传统BP神经网络有所提升。研究表明,该学习预测模型在大量历史数据的模型构造上有更大的优势,能够缩短建模时间,同时获得良好的预测效果,为水产养殖产量预测提供了一种可行的新方法。     

稻纵卷叶螟寄生蜂发现域的研究

本文在发现域研究中首次提出了密比系数和域比系数的概念,解决了在自然条件下同一寄主的各种寄生蜂发现域比较的问题。研究和探讨了稻纵卷叶螟各种寄生蜂发现域之间的数值比较及寄生蜂密度对发现域的影响,建立了AR-DR对数回归模型。     

Distribution and richness of diadromous fish assemblages in Western Europe: large-scale explanatory factors

Abstract –  The aim of this study was to analyse the distribution of 14 diadromous fish at the beginning of the 20th century in western Europe. This study was conducted on a set of 41 water basins. Five environmental variables were selected and we used generalised additive models for explaining the presence–absence of species. The richest basins were located in the centre of the study area. Six main assemblage types were identified along a latitudinal gradient; they were constituted of a common species basis but differed by the absence or presence of other species. The 10 single species models produced have moderate to very good discrimination level and they can correctly predict both absence and presence. Temperature is included in all but one model, response curves vary according to the species; surface area is included in six models.     

高精度保证下的浙江省森林植被生物量评估

为准确评估浙江省森林植被生物量,以2009年浙江省森林资源连续清查第一手野外调查数据为数据源,以样地为评估基本单元,采用单株生物量模型法(乔木,毛竹Phyllostachys edulis,杂竹,下木和灌木),单位面积生物量模型法(草本)和单位面积生物量法(矮化乔木林、灌木经济林),测算了样地水平的森林植被生物量.在此基础上,运用系统抽样统计方法,将样地水平微观数据转换到全省宏观尺度,评估了全省总体的森林植被生物量,提供了主要评估结果的估计精度和估计区间.结果显示:2009年,浙江省森林植被总生物量为37 010.732×104t.主要森林植被类型中,乔木林群落为29 096.269×104t,竹林群落3 762.964×104t,灌木林群落1 747.953×104t.在P＜0.05的可靠性保证下,森林植被总生物量估计精度为96.64％,估计区间为35 767.171×104～38 254.293×104t;乔木林群落9558％,估计区间为27 810.214×104～30 382324×1 04t;竹林群落89.13％,估计区间为3 353.930×104～4 171.998×104t;灌木林群落90.00％,估计区间为1 573.158×104～1 922.748×104t.可见,采用以上方法测算的浙江省各类森林植被生物量评估结果,均有很高的精度保证和较好可信度.     

Improving management advice through spatially explicit models and sharing information

Recent assessments of Chilean shrimp, Heterocarpus reedi, in central Chile have been conducted separately for the northern and southern zones of the fishery and treating them as two separate stocks. However, it is not clear whether H. reedi of the two zones interact with one another or whether they share similar characteristics. Such knowledge is necessary to determine whether they should be modeled as separate “stocks” or as a single stock. This has motivated the use of the Pella–Tomlinson model to test whether there are spatial differences in the population dynamics of H. reedi in the two zones and whether sharing information between the zones improves management advice. We test if it is better, from a stock assessment point of view, to model the stock as one unit in the whole area, or as two separate stocks. In the single-stock model, we sum the catch data of both zones, but each catch-per-unit-of-effort index is fit as a separate data set, using a joint likelihood. Under the single-stock hypothesis, the best model fit was the symmetric production function (i.e. the Schaefer model for which the biomass that supports maximum sustainable yield as a proportion of carrying capacity (B_MSY/B₀) = 0.5), with different catchability coefficients for each CPUE index, but a shared standard deviation of the log-normal likelihood function. Under the two-stock hypotheses, both catch and CPUE data were separated for each zone in the model. In this case, the best model fit is also the one with symmetrical production curve, and the only parameter that differed between the zones was B₀. However, B₀ per unit of habitat was similar for the two zones. Also, the precision of estimated management quantities was improved by modeling the appropriate spatial structure and sharing information among zones. The results suggest that the demographic parameters are similar for the two zones. It appears that the main difference between the two zones is the exploitation history, with the catch in the southern zone being reduced earlier than in the northern zone and consequently the biomass in the southern zone increased earlier than in the northern zone. This implies that local depletion can occur in this stock and that differences in management among zones may require explicitly modeling sub-stocks in the assessment of this and other species.     

民族地区农户兼业意愿及影响因素分析

【目的】深入考察民族地区农户兼业意愿及影响因素,为民族地区农户兼业政策的制定提供理论依据。【方法】对重庆市石柱县进行实地调查,以问卷、访谈等方式收集数据,并利用Logistic模型分析农户兼业影响因素。【结果】民族地区农户兼业意愿强烈,农户的性别、年龄、文化程度、家庭规模、是否拥有专业技能、小孩能否在父母打工地入学、土地是否容易转租、兼业信息渠道和致富意愿等因素均显著影响农户兼业意愿。【建议】地方政府应加强职业教育培训、完善土地流转制度、统筹城乡发展、建立农户兼业信息网络体系等,以推动民族地区农户兼业发展。     

基于时间序列数据的粮食播种面积单产预测模型研究

采用了一种基于时间序列数据的灰色—线性回归模型对广西某市的粮食作物播种面积的单产进行了预测,并将预测结果及预测误差与线性回归模型及灰色GM（1,1）模型的预测结果进行了比较。结果表明,灰色—线性回归组合模型进行粮食作物耕地需求量预测精度较高,具有科学可行性。     

2BMMD-4型夏棉精量免耕播种机的设计与试验

鉴于黄淮海麦棉轮作区土层深厚和根茬量大、韧性强的特点,以及免耕播种机作业要求,设计了2BMMD-4型棉花精量免耕播种机,能一次实现破茬、开沟、防堵、施肥、播种、覆土及镇压等功能。该机具具有独特的苗带清理及作业防堵、播种深度调节以及作业仿形功能。同时,利用SolidWorks以及ANSYS软件对2BMMD-4型免耕播种机的苗带浅旋装置进行了模态分析。结果表明,该机刀轴在设计转速下对应的频率远小于各阶固有频率,不容易发生共振。田间试验表明,该播种机作业性能达到了设计要求。     

个性化产品需求的语义描述

以产品需求的特征信息模型入手,通过对产品需求的语法、语义模型的分析,将客户需求通过形式化的语义描述出来.从根源上消除了需求的各种缺陷,使产品成为符合内部规则约束、满足客户需求的个性化产品.