天气衍生品的运作机制与精算定价

天气衍生品是为了规避天气风险给天气敏感行业带来收入的不稳定性而兴起的创新型风险管理工具，其实质是通过衍生合约对天气风险进行分割、重组和交易的证券化产品。不同于传统金融衍生品，天气衍生品的价值取决于温度、湿度或降雨量等天气指数。本文在分析天气衍生品市场发展的基础上，重点探讨了最常见的天气期货和天气期权的运作机制及其精算定价。     

Economic performance and comparative riskiness of different management practices for control of botrytis fruit rot in florida strawberry

Florida strawberry farmers usually rely on weekly calendar fungicide applications to prevent yield loss from Botrytis fruit rot (BFR). The Strawberry Advisory System (SAS), which helps optimize the timing of fungicide applications, is an additional tool in the farmers' arsenal of disease control options. This study uses data from two-year production trials in Florida combined with historical strawberry prices to measure the economic performance of the Calendar and SAS-based BFR management practices under output price risk and producers' risk preferences. We use Monte Carlo simulation to model the effect of the variability in weekly output prices on farm returns. Results reveal that the traditional calendar-based system is not the least risky BFR management option as growers expected to be. SAS-based options such as SAS-Switch and SAS-Luna would be preferred by both risk-neutral and risk-averse producers and are recommended under high disease pressure conditions.     

Evaluation the effect of subchronic feeding of transgenic cotton line (CKC1) on the faecal microbiota of albino rabbits

Recent studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between the intestinal microbiota and the host health. As such, consumers are increasingly becoming more concerned about the potential effect of certain foods/feeds, particularly of transgenic origin on the gut microbiota. Although the European Food Safety Authority has recommended in their guidelines, to study the effect of transgenic food/feed on host-microbiota, yet, few studies have focused on the evaluation of such effects mainly due to culturing difficulties. Therefore, this study was intended to evaluate the potential adverse effects of transgenic diet consumption on some specific gut microflora (Lactobacillus group, Bifidobacterium genus, Escherichia coli subgroup and Enterococcus genus) of rabbits. A total of forty-eight rabbits were randomly assigned into four groups and fed a diet containing a variable proportion of transgenic cottonseeds at 0, 20, 30 and 40% inclusion level, respectively. Changes in the specific or total faecal bacterial population were monitored at five different experimental stages (i.e. 0, 45, 90, 135 and 180 days) using both the traditional plate count method (TM) and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). No significant differences (p > .05) were observed concerning numbers of specific bacteria or total bacteria between the control and experimental groups, though qPCR showed numerically higher values in terms of 16S rRNA gene copies as compared to the values obtained from TM. However, such numerical differences were biologically insignificant (p > .05). Similarly, no significant variations were noticed in the calculated B/E (log₁₀ copies of Bifidobacterium per g faces/log10 copies of E. coli genome per g faeces) ratios in all the groups. All the ratios were in the range of 1.24 to 1.30 throughout the experiment, indicating a good balance of intestinal microflora and greater resistance to intestinal disorders. It is therefore concluded that feeding transgenic cottonseeds could not adversely affect the gut microflora of rabbits during a long-term study.     

Molecular characterisation of Theileria equi and risk factors associated with the occurrence of theileriosis in horses of Punjab (Pakistan)

Theileria equi (T. equi) is an obligate intra- and extra-erythrocytic parasite that causes equine theileriosis (ET) in equids. Equine theileriosis is considered a notifiable disease of global significance, a major constraint to the international movement of horses, and endemic in many countries. This disease may be difficult to diagnose, as it can produce variable and nonspecific clinical signs. A cross-sectional study was designed for the molecular characterisation of T. equi and to investigate the associated risk factors of ET accompanied by its consequences on haematological and sero-biochemical parameters. A convenience sampling of 500 blood samples were collected from ET suspect horses from January to December 2017. PCR was performed on all blood samples targeting the 18S rRNA gene of T. equi followed by sequencing; 9% animals tested positive with confirmed sequences. The isolates of this study showed high homology with Cuban, Russian and Brazilian isolates of T. equi (accession numbers KY111762.2 , MG551915.1 and KY952237.1 , respectively). Based on multivariate analysis, the principal risk factors consisted of absence of dogs on the premises and presence of tick infestation. The haemato-biochemical parameters showed a decrease in granulocytes and erythrocytes, and an increase in lymphocytes, monocytes, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular haemoglobin, mean platelet volume, glucose, phosphorus and aspartate aminotransferase in positive horses. This is the first study which identified ET in Punjab (Pakistan) using molecular techniques and risk factors together with the haemato-biochemical variations in horses.     

饲料加工企业内控评价指标体系的构建及其应用研究

面对日益复杂的竞争形势,饲料加工企业需要加强内控管理。为了评价内控体系的有效性,通常寻找一些评价指标形成体系对内控进行评价。本文提出构建内控评价指标体系需要一些前提,包括对关键环节的识别、评价原则的确定等,在指标选取中,至少应涵盖公司层面、业务层面、财务层面和合法合规层面的指标。内控评价体系构建后,需要有组织保障和制度保障,并且需要不断改进完善。 [关键词] 饲料加工企业|内部控制|评价指标体系|风险管理     

Avian anaesthesia related mortality and the associated risk factors in a UK zoological collection

ObjectiveTo analyse avian anaesthesia-related mortality in a UK zoological collection over a 5-year period and identify risk factors for mortality.Study designRetrospective cohort study.AnimalsA total of 135 individual birds across 37 species, anaesthetized during 206 events in a UK zoological collection between 1 January 2014 and 30 June 2019 (inclusive).MethodsAnaesthesia records were reviewed and variables such as age, body condition, weight, sex, duration of anaesthesia and health status were collated. Anaesthesia-related mortality was defined as those deaths occurring during anaesthesia and up to 7 days postanaesthesia. Outcome was analysed using multivariable conditional logistic regression. Overall mortality was defined and included birds euthanised during anaesthesia for non-anaesthesia related reasons. Data were summarised as median (range). A value of p < 0.05 was considered significant. Relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated for the association between risk factors and anaesthetic death where a statistically significant difference was found.ResultsThe overall mortality rate was 10.19% (95% CI = 6.06–14.3%), while anaesthesia-related mortality was 3.88% (95% CI = 1.69–7.51%). Birds with an abnormal health status had a 15.53-fold (95% CI = 1.95–123.63) increased risk of death compared with those with a normal health status. The duration of anaesthesia was also a statistically significant risk factor (p = 0.021) in the univariable analysis, but not when combined with health status. No other variables were associated with anaesthesia-related mortality.Conclusions and clinical relevanceAbnormal health status and longer anaesthetic procedures were associated with a significantly increased risk of anaesthesia-related death in this population of birds. It is recommended that anaesthetic duration is minimized, and pre-existing diseases are diagnosed where possible prior to general anaesthesia of birds. Anaesthetizing healthy birds was associated with a low risk of mortality.     

欧盟、美国和日本加工农产品中农药残留评估现状

本文介绍了欧盟、美国和日本评估加工农产品中农药残留的数据要求和试验准则,以及开展膳食摄入风险评估和推荐农药最大残留限量(MRL)的方法,汇总了用于农药残留评估的加工农产品及其分类,分析了加工农产品中农药MRL制定现状,为进一步提高我国相关领域技术提供借鉴。比较分析结果表明,欧盟和美国在农药登记资料要求中明确提出了加工试验数据要求并且制定了相应的试验准则,美国在试验准则中描述了加工农产品中农药MRL的推荐原则;美国和日本制定了一定数量的加工农产品中农药MRL,欧盟建立了适用于监管农药MRL的加工因子数据库;欧盟、美国和日本均在相关法规中规定了加工农产品中农药残留的合规性判定。