Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics

An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.     

桃品种需冷量评价模式的探讨

 通过1986～2001年对450余份桃品种需冷量的7．2℃模式、0～7．2℃模式(不包括0℃)和犹它模式比较分析，归纳出桃品种需冷量的评价模式为：以秋季日平均温度稳定低于7．2~C的日期为需冷量测定的起点，以0～7．2℃累积低温值作为需冷量的评价标准比较适宜；犹它模式在中需冷量和长需冷量范围内能有效预测休眠的结束，而不适宜低需冷量品种的测定；7．2℃模式不适宜作为需冷量的评价模式。品种的需冷量与叶芽开放和始花期的相关系数分别为0．52和0．58，均达到极显著水平。提出了桃品种需冷量评价的系列标准参照品种。     

新疆冬小麦农田蒸散估算模型的研究

本文在田间试验资料的基础上，综合考虑了影响冬小麦农田蒸散的气象、生物学特性和土壤水分等因素，选用蒸发力、冬小麦的叶面积指数和相对有效土壤湿度建立了新疆冬小麦农田蒸散估算模型，并且检验了该模型的计算效果。     

景观生态学原理与方法在荒漠化研究中应用的理论分析

荒漠化发生发展的过程实际上是指在自然和人为因素的作用下，生态系统结构遭受破坏、功能过程受阻和演变发生异化的过程，其防治的根本措施是恢复和重建健康的生态系统。所以，景观生态学理念在荒漠化的研究和防治中有着重要的意义。本文从荒漠化与生态系统结构、功能变化、荒漠化与生物多样性、荒漠化生态系统的物质循环和能量流动以及荒漠化生态系统的稳定性等方面论述了景观生态学理念在荒漠化研究中应用的可行性，并重点分析了景观生态学关于景观格局变化的评价指标与荒漠化土地动态变化之间的关系。     

闭锁群体BLUP选择下遗传方差和近交系数的变化

采用计算机随机模拟方法模拟了在一个闭锁群体内连续对单个性状进行 1 5个世代选择的情况。选择过程中世代不重叠 ,每个世代的种畜根据动物模型最佳线性无偏预测 (BLUP)法估计的育种值进行选留 ,并在此基础上系统地比较了不同群体规模、公母比例和性状遗传力对群体遗传方差和近交系数变化的影响。结果表明 ,扩大育种群规模、增加公畜比例以及对低遗传力性状进行选择时 ,群体遗传方差降低的速度和近交系数上升的速度会更慢 ,在长期选择时可望获得更大的持续进展和适宜的近交增量     

Functional heterogeneity in resources within landscapes and herbivore population dynamics

Large mammalian herbivores are notorious for their propensity towards population irruptions and crashes, yet many herbivore populations remain relatively stable. I explore how resource heterogeneity within landscapes dampens population instability, using a metaphysiological modelling approach considering patch state distributions. Resource heterogeneity is functionally stabilizing through spreading consumption away from preferred resources before these become critically depleted. Lower-quality resources act as a buffer against starvation during critical periods of the seasonal cycle. Enriching resource quality is destabilizing, even if patch diversity is maintained, because food quantity then becomes the limitation. The potential consequences of landscape fragmentation are explored using the Serengeti ecosystem, characterised by broadscale resource gradients, as a hypothetical example. Further insights provided by the model are illustrated with specific examples concerning the effects of patch scales and waterpoint distribution. A metaphysiological modelling approach enables the basic consequences of landscape heterogeneity to be distinguished from further effects that may arise from specific patch scales and configurations, without the distracting detail of spatially explicit models.     

Using traffic flow theory to model traffic mortality in mammals

Traffic has a considerable effect on population and community dynamics through the disruption and fragmentation of habitat and traffic mortality. This paper deals with a systematic way to acquire knowledge about the probabilities of successful road crossing by mammals and what characteristics affect this traversability. We derive a model from traffic flow theory to estimate traffic mortality in mammals related to relevant road, traffic and species characteristics. The probability of successful road crossing is determined by the pavement width of the road, traffic volume, traversing speed of the mammals and their body length. We include the traversability model in a simple two-patch population model to explore the effects of these road, traffic and species characteristics on population dynamics. Analysis of the models show that, for our parameter ranges, traffic volume and traversing speed have the largest effect on traffic mortality. The population size is especially negatively affected when roads have to be crossed during the daily movements. These predictions could be useful to determine the expected effectiveness of mitigating measures relative to the current situation. Mitigating measures might alter the road and traffic characteristics. The effects of these changes on traffic mortality and population dynamics could be analysed by calculating the number of traffic victims before and after the mitigating measures. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

秦巴山区养羊户适度经营规模的研究

通过对秦巴山区陕西省西乡县15个典型陕南白山羊养殖专业户的资金投入、羊群结构、草地资源、经济效益等情况的调查，分析了养羊户的资源利用和生产经营状况，确定了与山羊生产密切相关的12个变量，即种公羊数、基础母羊数、后备母羊数、育肥羊数、羊舍面积、草地补种及施肥费用、医杂费、氨化或青贮饲料量、补饲精料量、工作日、投资额，并确定了各变量的参数值，以利润最大为目标函数，然后运用线性规划模型，计算出不同投资、不同人力及草地资源等条件下的适度经营规模。结果表明，养羊户的投资额是决定适度规模的主要因素。根据投资和羊群基础母羊数量设计的三种典型经营条件下，基础母羊全部留种的经营方式可获最大投资收益率(140．1％)；基础母羊数量达到20只以上，自繁种公羊的经营方式的最大投资收益率为74．0％；资金有限，人工授精配种的经营方式的投资收益率最低，为73．1％。     

The effect of non-inversion tillage and light availability on dispersal and spatial growth of Cynodon dactylon

The invasive ability of Cynodon dactylon is dependent on self dispersal and on cultivation practices. Tillage can seriously change patch biomass and spatial structure, spreading vegetative propagules of the weed. The objectives of this study were: (i) to quantify the effect on non‐inversion tillage on dispersal, establishment and colonization of C. dactylon and (ii) to propose a simple model considering soil cultivation effects and light availability on spatial growth of weed patches. Two experiments were carried out, exploring different soils and environmental conditions. Spatial distribution of vegetative units differed when tillage was conducted with different non‐inversion implements and could be described by simple functions. A minimum patch biomass seems necessary before vegetative structures are vulnerable to movement by cultivation. Only a small proportion of the biomass dispersed from original patches was able to establish. However, simulation showed that the area colonized by C. dactylon mostly increased by means of tillage dispersal, both with and without crop competition, in one growing cycle. It appears sensible to consider changing cultivation practices to reduce weed dispersal and to use crop competition for light to create unsuitable habitats limiting weed colonization.     

Body weight growth Model of Datong Yak in Qinghai

Summary:This study was conducted to develop a suitable model for describing the growth pattern of the yak. The data used consisted of body weight records of 76 growing yak aged between 5 to 37 months. Three mathematical models were applied to describe the growth curves during this development period:①Y1=20.105 + 11. 250x-0. 526x2 ;used for describing the growth curve of yak aged 5 to 13 months;②Y2 = -359.687 + 49. 977x - 1. 249x2 ;used for animals aged 13 to 25 months;and ③Y3 = -833. 339 + 63. 772x - 1. 019x2 ;used for animals aged 25 to 37 months.