宜吉共建黄河壶口瀑布旅游风景名胜区的合作方案研究

黄河壶口瀑布旅游风景名胜区由于地跨晋陕两省,长期以来以行政为单元进行独立开发的模式制约了景区的发展。本文在认真分析了现行的开发模式和三种可供选择的方案之后,提出了一种可行的创新方案。     

关中平原小麦产量对气候变化区域响应的评价模型研究

根据关中地区宝鸡、西安、渭南与咸阳 4地 (市 )的 1 949～ 1 999年的逐年小麦单产记录序列以及 4地 (市 )的气象观测站点自建站以来至 2 0 0 0年近 5 0年的气象记录序列 ,对关中地区小麦产量与年均温、年降水作相关分析 ;探讨了关中地区小麦单产对气候变化区域响应的评价模型。结果发现 :关中平原气候具有暖干化趋势 ;随着气温变暖 ,小麦产量增加幅度减小 ;小麦产量对降水波动的响应比对气温波动的响应显著。     

Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics

An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities, as well as land use and landcover in geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according to change in breeder abundance, saturation, and distribution, compared to baseline conditions. Sensitivity of simulation results to changes in model parameters was also examined. Simulated results suggest that while all four species modeled are likely to persist under present and future scenario conditions, two may be more at risk from future landscape change. Although the study species are all widespread generalists regarded as having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands and ponds, increasingly endangered habitats in agricultural landscapes. Broader conservation strategies in the region would ensure that these currently common organisms do not become the endangered species of the future.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

甘薯根腐病抗性在不同环境条件下的表现及遗传趋势

结果表明,甘薯根腐病发病轻重与环境条件有很大关系,表现为干旱少雨的年份发病较重,降雨量较多的年份发病较轻;土壤瘠薄的发病较重,肥力条件较好的则发病较轻;通常情况下,年份间品种的抗性表现较为一致,但遇特殊气候则年份间品种的抗性有一定的差异。对1150份甘薯品种资源及育种材料的根腐病抗性鉴定结果表明,高抗型材料占14.6％,抗病型占15.7％,感病型占26.0％,高感型占43.7％。对754份材料及亲本的抗性分析表明,不同的抗性组合后代中均可分离出高抗至高感类型的材料,杂交后代的抗性强弱随双亲抗性水平的提高而提高。中国自1970年以来采用品种间杂交和种间杂交育种技术,先后育成了一批高产、优质的高抗型优良品种。     

Simulating evolution of glyphosate resistance in Lolium rigidum II: past, present and future glyphosate use in Australian cropping

Glyphosate is a key component of weed control strategies in Australia and worldwide. Despite widespread and frequent use, evolved resistance to glyphosate is rare. A herbicide resistance model, parameterized for Lolium rigidum has been used to perform a number of simulations to compare predicted rates of evolution of glyphosate resistance under past, present and projected future use strategies. In a 30‐year wheat, lupin, wheat, oilseed rape crop rotation with minimum tillage (100% shallow depth soil disturbance at sowing) and annual use of glyphosate pre‐sowing, L. rigidum control was sustainable with no predicted glyphosate resistance. When the crop establishment system was changed to annual no‐tillage (15% soil disturbance at sowing), glyphosate resistance was predicted in 90% of populations, with resistance becoming apparent after between 10 and 18 years when sowing was delayed. Resistance was predicted in 20% of populations after 25–30 years with early sowing. Risks of glyphosate resistance could be reduced by rotating between no‐tillage and minimum‐tillage establishment systems, or by rotating between glyphosate and paraquat for pre‐sowing weed control. The double knockdown strategy (sequential full rate applications of glyphosate and paraquat) reduced risks of glyphosate and paraquat resistance to <2%. Introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape significantly increased predicted risks of glyphosate resistance in no‐tillage systems even when the double knockdown was practised. These increased risks could be offset by high crop sowing rates and weed seed collection at harvest. When no selective herbicides were available in wheat crops, the introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape necessitated a return to a minimum‐tillage crop establishment system.     

Predicting effective doses for the joint action of two fungicide applications

A function was derived to predict fungicide efficacy when more than one application of a single active ingredient is made to a crop, given parameters describing the dose–response curves of the component single-spray applications. In the function, a second application is considered to act on that proportion of the total pathogen population which was uncontrollable at the time of the first application (represented by the lower asymptote of the dose–response curve for the first treatment), plus any additional part of the population which survived the first application as a result of a finite dose being applied. Data to estimate the single-spray dose–response curve parameters and validate predictions of two-spray programme efficacy were obtained from separate subsets of treatments in four field experiments. A systemic fungicide spray was applied to wheat at a range of doses, at one or both of two times (t₁ and t₂), in all dose combinations. Observed values of the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) for septoria leaf blotch (Mycosphaerella graminicola) were used to construct response surfaces of dose at t₁ by dose at t₂ for each culm leaf layer. Parameters were estimated from single-spray and zero-dose treatment data only. The model predicted a high proportion (R² = 71–95%) of the variation in efficacy of the two-spray programmes. AUDPC isobols showed that the dose required at t₂ was inversely related to the dose at t₁, but the slope of the relationship varied with the relative timings of t₁ and t₂ in relation to culm leaf emergence. Isobols were curved, so the effective dose – the total dose required to achieve a given level of disease suppression – was lower when administered as two applications.     

Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics

An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.     

桃品种需冷量评价模式的探讨

 通过1986～2001年对450余份桃品种需冷量的7．2℃模式、0～7．2℃模式(不包括0℃)和犹它模式比较分析，归纳出桃品种需冷量的评价模式为：以秋季日平均温度稳定低于7．2~C的日期为需冷量测定的起点，以0～7．2℃累积低温值作为需冷量的评价标准比较适宜；犹它模式在中需冷量和长需冷量范围内能有效预测休眠的结束，而不适宜低需冷量品种的测定；7．2℃模式不适宜作为需冷量的评价模式。品种的需冷量与叶芽开放和始花期的相关系数分别为0．52和0．58，均达到极显著水平。提出了桃品种需冷量评价的系列标准参照品种。     

疫霉菌对霜脲氰抗性遗传及对霜脲氰和甲霜灵的交互抗性

就疫霉菌对霜脲氰抗性的产生和遗传，以及疫霉菌对霜脲氰和甲霜灵的交互抗性进行了研究。结果表明，苎麻疫霉容易对霜脲氰产生抗药性突变，但抗性在连续３代单游动孢子分离过程中逐渐丧失。大雄疫霉对霜脲氰不易产生抗性突变，恶疫霉、大雄疫霉和苎麻疫霉对甲霜灵和霜脲氰不存在交互抗性     

新疆冬小麦农田蒸散估算模型的研究

本文在田间试验资料的基础上，综合考虑了影响冬小麦农田蒸散的气象、生物学特性和土壤水分等因素，选用蒸发力、冬小麦的叶面积指数和相对有效土壤湿度建立了新疆冬小麦农田蒸散估算模型，并且检验了该模型的计算效果。