Spatio‐temporal trends of sailfish,Istiophorus platypterus catch rates in relation to spawning ground and environmental factors in the equatorial and southwestern Atlantic Ocean

Spatial and temporal trends of sailfish catch rates in the southwestern and equatorial Atlantic Ocean in relation to environmental variables were investigated using generalized additive models and fishery‐dependent data. Two generalized additive models were fit: (i) ‘spatio‐temporal’, including only latitude, longitude, month, and year; and (ii) ‘oceanographic’, including sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll‐a concentration, wind velocity, bottom depth, and depth of mixed layer and year. The spatio‐temporal model explained more (average ~40%) of the variability in catch rates than the oceanographic model (average ~30%). Modeled catch rate predictions showed that sailfish tend to aggregate off the southeast coast of Brazil during the peak of the spawning season (November to February). Sailfish also seem to aggregate for feeding in two different areas, one located in the mid‐west Atlantic to the south of ~15°S and another area off the north coast of Brazil. The oceanographic model revealed that wind velocity and chlorophyll‐a concentration were the most important variables describing catch rate variability. The results presented herein may help to understand sailfish movements in the Atlantic Ocean and the relationship of these movements with environmental effects.     

拖网渔船船-机-桨-网匹配研究

在拖网渔船的设计中,需要重点考虑螺旋桨与船-机的匹配、渔具与船-机-桨的匹配,实现推进系统的高效能发挥。本文引入时间概率的最佳螺旋桨参数优化确定方法,考虑拖网渔船设计的限制条件,通过优化分析,达到运营工况综合效能最佳,实现螺旋桨与船-机的合理匹配。从拖网渔船数据库中选取30艘运营状况优良的渔船进行有效拖力计算,建立拖网渔船有效拖力与主机功率和拖速的多元非线性回归方程,依据此方程得出的有效拖力结果选择网具和网板,实现有效拖力与渔具的合理匹配,最终实现渔具与船-机-桨的合理匹配。通过实船计算对比,验证了回归的有效拖力估算公式误差范围和适用性。研究表明:在拖网渔船设计初期,可以利用该公式估算有效拖力进行网具和网板的匹配,实现技术经济优化论证,最终实现船-机-桨-网的优化匹配。     

基于避碰传感器的自主汽车动目标识别与估计

建立自主汽车目标的匀速运动模型,根据实时的目标静态特征信息,采用最小二乘改进算法对匀速运动的自主汽车目标动态参数做出合理的估计,并对参数估计进行了仿真,验证了该算法实时性和可靠性。     

Predicting the age of fish using general and generalized linear models of biometric data: A case study of two estuarine finfish from New South Wales, Australia

Direct ageing of fish can be a laborious and expensive task when age estimates from a large population are required, and often involves a degree of subjectivity. This study examined the application of general and generalized linear models that predict the age of fish from a range of efficiently and objectively measured covariates. The data sampled were from yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis (Sparidae) (Owen, 1853)) and sand whiting (Sillago ciliata (Sillaginidae) Cuvier, 1829) populations from New South Wales, Australia. The covariates evaluated in the models were fish length, otolith weight, sex and location (the estuary from which the fish were sampled). Akaike Information Criteria were used for model selection and residual plots of the final models revealed a satisfactory fit to the observations. The best fitting model for each species included all covariates. An additional investigation considered whether general and generalized linear models that predict age from two different categories of biometric information outperform age-length keys with respect to subsequent estimates of total mortality from catch-curve analysis. The two categories of biometric information differed in the ease and cost with which the information could be collected. The first category only included fish length and location as covariates, whilst the second category also included otolith weight and sex. It was found that traditional age-length keys outperformed the predictive models that estimated age from only fish length and location, because the results from the models were prone to significant bias. However, when otolith weight and sex were added as covariates to the predictive models, some of them, including a generalized linear model with a Poisson-distributed response variable, performed similarly to the age-length key. Given that otolith weight and the sex of fish are cheaper to quantify than age from a sectioned otolith in many situations, general or generalized linear models may represent a cheaper and faster method of estimating mortality compared to age-length keys. Such models can also easily incorporate the influence of spatial, temporal and demographic variation.     

基于多结构鲁棒估计的虹膜外边缘定位方法

在Adaboost检测人脸区域的基础上,提出了基于多结构鲁棒估计的虹膜外边缘定位方法．通过对200幅单人脸的图像数据集的仿真实验,结果表明,本方法相比于传统的RANSAC模型生成算法以及Hough变换等方法,能得到更精确的定位结果,而且能加快有效的模型生成,虹膜外边缘定位精度达到94％．     

基于高光谱数据的水体叶绿素a指数反演模型的建立

水体叶绿素a含量是反映水体质量的重要指标之一,利用遥感技术监测其含量具有众多优势。该研究利用2012年7月在广西壮族自治区桂林市漓江流域实地采集的水体高光谱数据和实验室化验分析数据,借鉴陆表植被叶绿素a的遥感反演模型,发展了一种新的水体叶绿素a提取指数(water chlorophyll-a index,WCI)。通过与反射率敏感波段法、波段比值法和半分析方法对比分析发现,新提出的WCI指数使用650、685、696 nm波段,波段稳定,决定系数R2可达0.58,均方根误差最小为0.24,受水体悬浮物影响小,在天津海河区域的验证效果也表明了该模型可以有效地提取水体叶绿素a含量。该方法扩展了水体叶绿素a监测的建模思路,对水体叶绿素a监测建模有一定的指导作用。     

基于多源遥感数据的综合干旱监测模型构建

在全球气候变化越来越复杂的大背景下,准确监测华北粮食主产区的旱情对区域农业生产有重要的指导意义。以往的遥感干旱监测方法多侧重于监测土壤或植被等单一干旱响应因子,反映综合信息的能力较差,为此该研究使用中分辨率成像光谱仪(moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer,MODIS)、热带降水测量计划(tropical rainfall measuring mission,TRMM)卫星等多源遥感数据,在综合考虑干旱发生发展过程中的土壤水分胁迫、植被生长状态和气象降水盈亏等因素的基础上,利用空间数据挖掘技术,构建综合干旱监测模型,并以山东省为例进行了试验验证。结果表明,模型监测出山东省近年来所经历的重大干旱过程与实际旱情一致,模型输出的旱情指标-综合干旱指数(synthesized drought index,SDI)与小麦的标准化作物单产变量的相关系数均大于0.7(P0.05);在小麦和玉米的生长期,综合干旱指数与作物受灾面积的相关系数在-0.67～-0.85之间,与标准化降水指数(standardized precipitation index,SPI)的相关系数在0.44～0.67之间,且通过了P0.01的极显著检验(3月份除外)。研究结果为综合评估区域干旱提供了一种新的方法。     

主动型配电网日前调度策略研究

相对于传统配电网,主动型配电网可以合理利用其双向调度功能,充分发挥分布式发电容量,在保护环境的同时还可以提高电力公司的效益。以电力公司效益最大为调度目标,针对主动型配电网调度问题,该文计及输电和高压配电网网损的影响,提出了一种配电网日前优化调度模型,通过该模型对微电网电源交互功率和分布式电源进行优化调度,同时确定最佳渗透率,不仅可以有效地削峰填谷,还可以根据最佳渗透率调整分布式电源的功率,使电力公司效益最大化。算例研究表明,电网中接在距离电源点较近的节点下的主动型配电网,通过该文提出的优化调度模型,得出渗透率为21.14%时,电力公司效益最高。该研究可为主动型配电网日前调度策略以及分布式电源最佳渗透率的制定提供参考。     

半解析法求解水柱分离与断流弥合水锤问题及机理分析

为了应对长距离输水工程的水锤防护问题,分析了空气阀作用于波状管线有压输水系统发生水力过渡时的瞬态响应过程,提出了空穴增长和溃灭时间、管线最大含气率、最大压力峰值等参数的半解析公式,并由此探讨和研究影响空气阀水锤防护效果的关键因素。半解析解表明,位于空气阀下游的管段相对长度和管线高点的相对高程对系统的断流弥合水锤起了主导作用。将半解析解与特征线法数值解进行了对比,发现两者随主变量的变化趋势一致;分析了半解析解与数值解产生偏差的原因与半解析公式推导过程中几个假设的关系。结果证明,该文提出的半解析公式能够反映空气阀作为水锤防护装置时,主导断流弥合水锤压力峰值的关键因素。该研究可为水锤防护的相关研究提供参考。     

基于模糊层次分析法的生物燃气产业竞争力评价模型及应用

随着中国能源需求的不断增长和环境保护的日益加强,生物燃气产业越来越受重视,对产业竞争力进行评价以了解地区生物燃气产业发展水平成为急需解决的问题。该文从规模、经济、技术、管理、可持续发展5个方面选择了22个指标,构建了生物燃气产业竞争力评价指标体系。基于层次分析法和模糊综合评判法,提出了生物燃气产业竞争力评价模型,并应用于北京市生物燃气产业竞争力评价。评价结果表明:规模竞争力在差的隶属度综合得分是0.49,制约因素主要是从业人员人数及气体总消费量。经济竞争力指标在中的隶属度综合评分是0.65,制约因素主要是农民增收情况。技术竞争力指标在良的隶属度综合评分是0.54,制约因素主要是人才吸引力情况。管理竞争力指标在中的隶属度综合得分是0.54,制约因素主要有运营管理模式及技术安全管理水平。可持续发展竞争力指标在优的隶属度综合得分是0.51。北京市生物燃气产业竞争力属于中等水平,在废弃物资源化利用能力以及污染物减排方面具有明显优势,在科研投入、技术装备方面具有较高水平,在管理水平、经济效益、产业规模方面等方面处于中等或较差水平,需要进行完善和提升。模型很好的表征了北京市生物燃气产业的现状,研究结果可为北京市生物燃气产业发展提供依据。