岩土计算中的弾塑性理论

岩土工程计算是一个复杂的系统工程,它涉及面广,包括高等数学、数值分析、计算机程序、弾塑性力学和岩土力学与工程等等学科知识.本文着重对该计算中所涉及到的主要弾塑性理论加以阐述,并讨论岩土计算中还有待于深入研究的部分课题.     

Factors underlying the investment decision in energy-saving systems in Dutch horticulture

In the Netherlands the greenhouse sector is a major user of energy. It accounts for 7% of the total national energy use and for 79% of the total energy use in agriculture. In order to sustain this sector on the long term, it is important that its use of energy is lowered. One way of reducing energy use by horticultural producers is investing in energy-saving systems. The purpose of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the investment behavior of firm operators in the adoption of energy-saving systems. Research objectives of the paper are (1) to analyze factors underlying the decision to invest, (2) to explore factors underlying the optimal size of investments. Three investment theories were used to construct an empirical model of investment. Consequently, this model was estimated in a two-stage procedure to analyze the factors influencing the decision of farmers to invest and the level of investments. The paper ends with policy implications.     

区域经济系统的分形特征及模型研究

通过对区域经济系统模型的研究,确定了经济系统的分形特征,并通过实例建立投入与产出的数学模型,验证了其分形特征,利用分维确定了各投入与产出量的变化趋势,揭示了区域经济系统的复杂变化,为了解和指导区域经济发展提供了新的方法和依据。     

带常利率和相依结构更新风险模型的破产概率

研究了一类具有常利率及相依结构的Sparre Andersen模型, 模型中假设理赔间隔时间决定下一次理赔额的分布情况. 对一般分布情形, 利用推广后的调节系数方程与递归更新技巧, 得到了此模型的最终破产概率上界的估计. 最后以理赔额和理赔间隔时间都服从指数分布的情况下的实例分析来说明该模型的有效性.     

基于弹道理论有风条件下折射式喷头喷灌均匀度研究

为计算有风条件下折射式喷头水量分布及喷灌均匀度,以弹道轨迹理论为基础,依据风速分布模型,建立有风条件下折射式单喷头水量分布计算方法,采用该方法模拟出有风条件下Nelson D3000型喷头倒挂安装方式下水量分布特性,通过与实测资料进行对比,验证了模拟具有较高的准确度,可应用于有风条件下折射式喷头水量分布计算。在此基础上,选用4.76 mm(24号)喷嘴直径,模拟出不工况下单喷头水量分布,计算出组合情况下喷灌均匀度,分析了风速、风向、喷头间距、工作压力和安装高度5种因素对喷灌均匀度的影响,并对蒸发漂移损失进行了分析。结果表明:95%的置信区间下,喷头布置间距对喷灌均匀度的影响最显著,其次是安装高度和喷头工作压力,风速和风向对喷灌均匀度影响不显著。风速、喷头工作压力和安装高度都会对蒸发漂移损失产生影响,其中工作压力影响最大。当选用Nelson D3000型喷头在风速小于6 m/s的环境下喷灌时,应将喷头安装间距固定在2.13~3.04 m范围内。另外,该安装间距范围内,喷头安装高度和喷灌压力增大后,喷灌均匀度增大的效果不明显,因此应采用低压喷灌以降低喷灌系统运行成本;考虑到较高的喷头安装高度会产生较大的蒸发漂移损失,喷灌时还应适当降低喷头安装高度,以提高喷灌水分利用率。     

基于博弈论赋权的灌溉用水效率GRA—TOPSIS评价模型

在构建区域灌溉用水效率综合评价指标体系的基础上,运用博弈论(Game theory,GT)思想将层次分析法(Analytic hierarchy process,AHP)所得主观权重与改进熵值法(Improved entropy value method,IEVM)所得客观权重进行综合集成以获取组合权值,并将灰色关联分析(Gray relation analysis,GRA)与逼近理想解排序(Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)相结合,以三江平原10个大型灌区为例进行验证,对区域灌溉用水效率作综合评价。采用Spearman等级相关系数检验灌溉水有效利用系数排序与GRA-TOPSIS法排序,得到的相关系数高达0.863,且GRA-TOPSIS法、GRA法、TOPSIS法对同一灌区综合排序的位次相差均不超过2,表明评价结果具有合理性和一致性;GRA-TOPSIS法所得综合值的极差为0.343,变异系数为0.267,均高于单独使用GRA法或TOPSIS法的极差与变异系数,更有利于对灌区灌溉用水效率进行辨识分区。此外,根据目标层与准则层排序差异度将灌区分为3类,辨识各灌区灌溉用水效率主控因子,对区域灌溉用水效率发展策略的制定具有参考价值。     

基于社会燃烧理论的耕地非农化驱动因素分析

中国耕地非农化现象日益明显。基于社会燃烧理论分析了耕地非农化的驱动原理,建立了耕地非农化影响机制模型,并运用SPSS 19.0软件对分类驱动因素进行了主成分及回归分析。结果表明,人均GDP和固定资产投资所占GDP比重等经济发展变量对耕地非农化水平的正向影响最大;粮食单产、总产等农业技术变量对耕地非农化水平具有最大的逆向影响。最后在模型拟合的基础上提出了相应的对策与建议,旨在为合理有效保护耕地提供参考。     

基于GIS的三江源地区物种多样性保护优先性分析

根据我们的多次科考调查和青海省对野生动物的调查结果等有关资料图件,对三江源地区的物种多样性和人类干扰因素等进行了分析和评估。选择9种鸟类、15种哺乳动物、20种植物作为本研究的指示物种,利用GIS制作了主要的珍稀濒危野生动植物分布图。选择放牧、人口、居民点、公路等因素作为生物多样性的主要干扰因素,制作出三江源地区干扰强度空间分布图。然后根据物种的丰富度和特有性、脆弱性和干扰程度等指标分析了三江源地区物种多样性保护优先性地区,做出了物种多样性保护优先地区空间分布图。     

民勤绿洲生态环境脆弱性模糊物元分析评价

针对民勤绿洲水资源、环境和土地利用现状,利用定量分析方法对民勤绿洲生态环境脆弱性进行总体评价.在分析影响民勤绿洲生态环境因素的基础上,将模糊理论、层次分析法和物元可拓集合有机结合起来,建立了民勤绿洲生态环境脆弱性评价的模糊物元模型.该模型充分考虑水资源、环境、土地资源和人工干预等指标.计算结果表明:民勤绿洲生态环境脆弱性状况总体评价为Ⅲ级,即非常脆弱.该方法简捷、易于计算编程,为西北旱区生态环境脆弱性评价提供了一种新的思路.     

Getting cosy in freshwater: Assumed to be brackish pike are not so brackish after all

Pike (Esox lucius) occupy coastal streams and rivers of the Baltic Sea, where they attain large sizes (>5 kg). These large sizes are perhaps due to the fact that they can tolerate relatively high salinities and can thus forage in the nearby more productive brackish environments. In an attempt to quantify the extent to which pike utilise brackish environments, and to provide some insight into the underlying causes for brackish water migrations, we tagged 30 pike from a western Baltic river with acoustic transmitters and were able to track 21 individuals for 1 year. Based on experienced from local anglers, this population was assumed to be brackish in nature, where individuals underwent freshwater migrations to spawn. Our findings however suggest that the smallest and most active individuals make short exits into brackish waters and do so on rare occasions. Our results further indicate that neither sex nor size is related to activity level. We suggest that these patterns reflect two distinct behaviours—active and passive—and that large pike can be supported by the food availability in the river, without the need to venture into coastal zones, thus defying the conventional view that Baltic pike are all brackish in nature.