基于机器学习算法的奶牛疾病预测模型的研究

【目的】评估建立奶牛疾病预测模型的6种机器学习(machine learning, ML)算法的性能及预测变量的重要性。【方法】选取2020年12月至2021年11月,共计944头泌乳牛的生产信息、行为信息作为预测因子,疾病信息作为输出变量,训练并验证模型。将日产奶量、反刍量、活动量、胎次和泌乳天数作为输入变量,利用ML算法建立奶牛疾病的预测模型,评估决策树(Decision Tree, DT) C5.0、CHAID算法、人工神经网络(Artificial Neural Network, ANN)、随机森林(Random Forests, RF)、贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Networks, BN)和逻辑回归(Logistic Regression, LR)6种ML算法的性能,评估预测变量的重要性,以及将胎次和泌乳天数纳入预测变量后模型性能的改善情况。采用敏感性和特异性评估模型性能,按照权重排序评估输入变量对模型预测的重要性。【结果】DT C5.0算法敏感性>85%,特异性>90%,为性能最佳的模型;RF总敏感性为56.8%,对各类牛预测的性能较稳定;ANN、BN、DT...     

复方黄芪颗粒防治鸡传染性法氏囊病的疗效试验

应用复方黄芪颗粒对鸡传染性法氏囊炎病毒人工感染病例进行试验,结果表明,有效率达到80%~92%,治愈率达到68%~76%,均高于对照药物,差异极显著(P<0.01)。推荐剂量为每升饮水中加入1g复方黄芪颗粒,连用5 d。     

希拉穆仁草原不同放牧强度对植被群落特征和土壤团聚体的影响

[目的] 为探究草原不同放牧强度下植被群落的改变,解析群落特征变化对土壤团聚体的影响。[方法] 以希拉穆仁荒漠草原控制放牧试验区为研究对象,采用野外调查、室内分析相结合的方法,分析轻度放牧(LG)、中度放牧(MG)、重度放牧(HG)和禁牧(CK)下植被群落特征和土壤团聚体特征及二者的关系,揭示植物群落变化对土壤团聚体的影响。[结果] (1)植物群落物种数随放牧强度的增加而增加,LG的群落Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H'')和Simpson优势度指数(D)显著低于其他放牧强度(p＜0.05)。地上生物量随放牧强度的增加而降低,HG的地上生物量显著低于其他放牧强度(p＜0.05)。不同放牧强度下地下生物量差异显著,且不同土层的地下生物量均以LG最高。(2)平均重量直径(MWD)和几何平均直径(GMD)的变化趋势与大团聚体含量一致,在0—5, 5—10 cm土层表现为随放牧强度的增加先增加后降低再增加(LG最高、MG最低)。(3)群落Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H'')、Pielous均匀度指数(J'')、地上生物量、容重是影响大团聚体含量、MWD和GMD的显著性因子(p＜0.05)。[结论] 放牧强度对土壤团聚体稳定性具有负反馈调节作用,主要通过影响植被群落多样性指数(H''和J'')、地上生物量、土壤容重的变化而引起土壤团聚体稳定性的变化。该结果为希拉穆仁草原放牧强度选择及生态恢复工作提供理论支撑和科学依据。     

基于AHP-EWM-TOPSIS的温室辣椒最佳调亏灌溉方案优化研究

辣椒对土壤水分非常敏感,传统的灌溉方式以单一追求高产为目的,对农作物进行大量灌溉,辣椒产量的提高往往伴随品质的下降。为选出能平衡产量和品质的最优调亏灌溉方案,本试验以辣椒为研究对象,以全生育期充分供水(75%～85%θ_f,θ_f为田间持水量)作为对照(CK),在3个调亏时期(苗期M、花期H和果期G)分别设置2种调亏程度(轻度水分调亏LS:65%～75%θ_f,重度水分调亏SS:55%～65%θ_f)和2种调亏历时(短期调亏：连续亏水4 d,长期调亏：连续亏水8 d),研究不同调亏处理对辣椒生长、产量和品质的影响。结果表明,在各生育期进行调亏灌溉均会减小辣椒株高、茎粗、叶面积及营养器官干物质。与花期和果期相比,苗期水分调亏对辣椒生长指标及营养器官干物质的抑制程度最大,尤其在苗期长期重度水分调亏(MSS-8)下,营养器官干物质最少,较CK下降27.85%。另外,苗期和花期适度的水分调亏有利于提高辣椒生殖器官干物质和产量,其中,苗期短期轻度(MLS-4)、苗期长期轻度(MLS-8)及花期短期轻度(HLS-4)水...     

绿色水电评价指标体系研究

针对当前我国水电开发与生态环境的矛盾以及国内外对绿色水电的不同理解,首先提出绿色水电是将可持续发展理念引入水电建设.强调人与自然的和谐相处,实现经济与资源、环境的可持续发展的概念.其次,按照科学的原则分别构建绿色水电设计、施工、运营3个阶段的评价指标体系.最后以云南某水电工程为例进行设计阶段绿色水电评价实例分析,为我国绿色水电的实际操作提供参考.     

黑龙江省大豆疫霉根腐病调查与病原分离

１９９６年对黑龙江省东部和中部大豆产区２３个市、县的大豆苗期疫霉根腐病进行了调查、研究,应用ＰＢＮＩＣ疫霉选择性培养基分离大豆疫霉根腐病病原菌,从牡丹江、穆棱、林口和佳木斯豆田具疫霉根腐症状的大豆植株上分离到大豆疫霉根腐病菌,并从根腐病株上单独或与大豆疫霉菌同时分离到终极腐霉菌,研究进一步证实我国黑龙江省有大豆疫霉根腐病。调查发现,大豆疫霉根腐病和终极腐霉根腐病主要发生在土质粘重、土壤含水量高或易积水的田块。     

甘肃省定西市当归“水烂病”病原鉴定及致病性测定

水烂病是甘肃省当归上发生的一种病害.本试验对水烂病病原菌的形态特征、培养特性、生理生化指标进行了测定,同时结合16SrDNA序列测定和相似性比对,发现该病原菌与GenBank数据库已知荧光假单胞杆菌第2生物型(Pseudornonas fluorescens生物型Ⅱ)的序列相似性达99％,其片段大小为1445 bp,编号为ZB1.致病性测定结果表明,该病原菌对‘岷归2号’(新繁品种)致病力最强,‘岷归1号’(主栽品种)次之,对‘朝鲜当归’(引进品种)的致病力最弱.本研究首次报道了荧光假单胞杆菌第2生物型能引起当归水烂病.     

Use of real-time PCR to examine the relationship between disease severity in pea and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aphanomyces euteiches</Emphasis> DNA content in roots

Aphanomyces euteiches causes severe root rot of peas. Resistance is limited in commercial pea cultivars. Real-time fluorescent PCR assay specific for A. euteiches was used to study the relationship between disease severity and pathogen DNA content in infected peas. Five pea genotypes ranging in levels of resistance were inoculated with five isolates of A. euteiches. Plants were visually rated for disease development and the amount of pathogen DNA in roots was determined using the PCR assay. The susceptible genotypes Genie, DSP and Bolero tended to have significantly more disease and more pathogen DNA than the resistant genotypes 90-2079 and PI 180693. PI 180693 consistently had less disease, while 90-2079 had the lowest amount of pathogen DNA. The Spearman correlation between pathogen DNA quantity and disease development was positive and significant (P < 0.05) for three isolates, but was not significant for two other isolates. This suggests that the real-time PCR assay may have limited application as a selection tool for resistance in pea to A. euteiches. Its utility as a selection tool would be dependent on the correlation between disease development and pathogen DNA content for a given pathogen isolate. The accuracy and specificity of the real-time PCR assay suggests considerable application for the assay in the study of mechanisms of disease resistance and the study of microbial population dynamics in plants.     

中华蚊母新病害鉴定及防治技术研究

运用柯赫氏法则对中华蚊母上发生的一种病害进行了验证,并在室内培养基上测试了4种常用杀菌剂(75％百菌清WP、80％多菌灵WP、70％代森锰锌WP和250 g/L阿米西达)对该病原菌的抑菌效果.结果表明:该病害为中华蚊母叶部的一种新病害;初步定为中华蚊母炭疽病,病原菌为半知菌亚门刺盘孢属的胶孢炭疽菌(Colletotrichum gloeosporioids).4种杀菌剂中,以75％百菌清WP抑菌效果最好,80％多菌灵WP和250 g/L阿米西这次之,70％代森锰锌WP最差.     

Effect of external counterpulsation on asymmetry diethylarginine and endothelin levels in blood

AIM:To observe changes of serum asymmetry dimethylarginine (ADMA) and endothelin-1 (ET-1) levels,which reflect blood vessel endothelial function,after therapy of enhanced external counterpulsation(EECP) in patients who had taken percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and stent.METHODS:Fifty one coronary heart disease patients (all of them had taken percutaneous tranluminal coronary angioplasty and stent) were distributed into two groups by matching them with ratio of 1∶2,17 patients in EECP group and 34 patients in control group.Both of two groups were given conventional medicine,in addition,EECP group was undertaken three courses of treatment of EECP.ADMA was detected by HPLC-fluorescence method,and ET-1 was detected by radio-immunity method.RESULTS:In EECP group ，compared with prior treatment,ADMA and ET-1 levels was obviously reduced (P<0.05).In control group,compared with prior treatment,ADMA had no significant difference (P>0.05) and ET-1 was higher (P<0.01).Compared between two groups,extent of decrease in ADMA and ET-1 levels in EECP group were more obvious than control group (P<0.01).Improvement of angina and decrease of frequency of angina was more obvious in EECP group than control group.Besides,decrease of ADMA level was positive correlation with them (r=0.85，0.70,respectively P<0.01).CONCLUSION:EECP reduces serum ADMA and ET-1 levels by increasing shear stress to vessel endothelium in coronary heart disease patients who had taken percutaneous tranluminal coronary angioplasty.It hints that EECP can improve endothelial function and provides experimental evidence for the combined treatment of coronary heart disease.