气候变化条件下中国灌溉面积变化的产量效应

灌溉可以有效缓解气候变化对粮食生产的不利影响。采用中国不同区域2006－2019年实际灌溉用水量,对4个气候模式（GFDL-ESM2M,HadGEM2-ES,IPSL-CAM5-LR,MIROC5）驱动下的3种作物模型（GEPIC、PEPIC和LPJml）的灌溉用水量进行评估,优选模拟结果较好的前5个模式组合,分析RCP2.6和RCP6.0情景下,2021－2050年中国玉米、水稻、大豆和小麦产量变化,评估灌溉面积扩张的增产效应。结果显示：未来气候变化下,2021－2050年降水量的增加使得中国水稻和大豆以及北方地区玉米和小麦产量均呈现增长趋势,其中东北80%左右的地区和西北70%左右的地区玉米产量将提高0.2～0.8 t/hm2,东北85%左右的地区水稻和大豆增产幅度分别超过1.0、0.5 t/hm2,东北90%左右的地区和西北75%左右的地区小麦产量增幅分别介于1.0～2.0、0.5～1.0 t/hm2之间。降水量的减少使得西南南部地区的玉米和小麦产量均下降0.2 t/hm2左右。不同区域玉米和小麦的增产效应差异明显,由于北部地区光热条件较差、小麦基础产量较低,使得小麦灌溉增产潜力（1%～11%）以及增产效率（（0.12±0.06）kg/m3）均较高,北部地区小麦的灌溉面积扩张可有效应对气候变化的不利影响。     

2000－2018年广西植被时空变化及其对地形、气候和土地利用的响应

广西是典型的喀斯特地区,其生态系统非常脆弱。为评估广西植被时空变化特征及其影响因素,该研究基于2000－2018年MODIS数据,利用最大值合成和趋势分析等方法,分析广西植被NDVI时空变化特征;基于相关分析等方法,结合地形因子、气候因子和土地利用数据,探讨了植被NDVI对地形、气候变化和土地利用的响应。结果表明：1）2000－2018年广西植被NDVI呈增加趋势,但空间差异显著,表现为北高南低,边缘高中间低。2）随着高程的增加植被NDVI呈现先增加再减少的趋势;随着坡度的增加植被NDVI呈先增加至稳定再减小的趋势;除无坡向以外,坡向的不同对植被NDVI影响不大。3）广西2000－2018年气温和降水对植被NDVI为正影响,平均复相关系数达到0.32。在不同土地利用类型上,植被NDVI对气候的响应是不同的。研究结果揭示了广西植被时空变化特征及其对地形、气候和土地利用的响应,能够为广西可持续发展和生态环境建设提供决策支持。     

庐山不同海拔植物季节水分利用策略

为探讨在气候变化下不同海拔植物对水分的响应及植物适应性变化,选择庐山不同海拔自然演替中典型树种山鸡椒(Litsea cubeba)、蜡瓣花(Corylopsis sinensis)、山茶(Camellia japonica)和老鼠矢(Sym-plocos stellaris)为研究对象,采用氢氧同位素技术,基于Iso-...     

气候变化情景下桑螟在中国的潜在适生区分布预测

桑螟Diaphania pyloalis Walker 是桑树的最主要害虫之一, 具有暴食性、繁殖能力强等特点, 造成桑叶严重减产, 同时也有传播蚕病风险, 对蚕桑产业危害大。本研究采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型, 选择政府间气候变化专业委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)第五次评估报告发布的代表性浓度路径4.5(RCP4.5)情景, 预测了桑螟在当前、2050年、2070年气候条件下适生分布区, 分析了影响D.pyloalis分布的环境因子及质心迁移轨迹, 为蚕桑产业发展规划提供理论依据。刀切法分析结果显示, 年平均气温(bio1)、昼夜温差与年温差比值(bio3)、最暖季度平均温度(bio10)、年平均降水量(bio12)、温度季节性变化标准差 (bio4)、最暖季度降水量(bio18)等6个环境因子是影响桑螟适生分布的主要环境因子。AUC(Area under receiver operating characteristic curve)值评估结果显示, 桑螟的AUC值为0.97, 模拟预测结果为极好, 满足精度要求。RCP 4.5情景下, 桑螟高适生区主要集中在江苏、浙江、四川、重庆、福建、广东、湖南、湖北等地, 未来气候因子将非常利于桑螟生存, 自然条件下桑螟种群将呈增长趋势。桑螟质心变化不大, 总体上北移, 处于湖南长沙、常德和岳阳三地。     

基于RS和GIS帽儿山土地利用适宜性评价

在RS和GIS的支持下,以2004年林相分布图、Landsat TM遥感数据为主要数据源,基于景观格局分析,采用多因子加权叠加法对研究区域的土地利用生态适宜性进行评价;并根据综合评价结果对研究区域的土地利用进行分类.在此基础上,在空间分布上对评价结果进行定量化分析.结果表明:适宜用地、基本适宜用地、基本不适宜用地、不适宜用地和不可用地所占的比例分别为:2.286%,41.256%,27.310%,26.195和2.954%;适宜区域和基本适宜区域用地的百分比为43.542%,占据较大的比例,土地生态适宜性较高;不适宜用地和不可用地占29.149%,占据较小的比例.分析认为对土地的利用要遵循一定的原则,因地制宜地合理利用土地资源.     

Two faces to the greenery on housing estates–mitigating climate but aggravating allergy. A Warsaw case study

Interest in the climate and an awareness of the beneficial cooling influence exerted on it by biologically-vital areas is growing, as climate change progresses, hot weather is more frequent as well as the urban heat island more intense. It is necessary to protect existing greenery in the cities and to introduce new planting. However plants in a warmer climate can produce larger amounts of pollen and are more readily able to initiate an allergic reaction among those prone to them. That means—not every greenery is advantageous for humans in the cities. In the research two housing estates built at different times and differ in type, density and age of buildings, as well as in the composition and the percentage of biologically vital area and the species planted were examined. Detailed inventory of tall greenery entailed the trees and shrubs and next their assumed allergenic potential was made. Cooling effect likely is derived from the difference in greenery, but the other factors such as differences in the density of buildings and spatial organization of the estate could also influence it. The older estate with the ratio of biologically vital areas of 54.3% is characterised by more favourable local climate than the newer estate, with the ratio of biologically vital areas equals 40.7% and young vegetation. On the newer one the perceptible thermal conditions did not differ significantly compared with the city centre. Unfortunately, on Koło Estate trees creating mild thermal conditions are also the trees promoting allergies most severely: birches, poplars and limes. And they are planted usually around playgrounds and kindergarten. The trees of high allergenicity should be partially removed, even risking small worsening thermal conditions.     

玉溪柑桔种植气候适宜性分析

利用玉溪市1987-2017年气象观测资料和柑桔生长物侯期及相应温度指标, 结合数字高程模型(DEM),采用GIS 技术及精细化小网格气候资源分析方法,对玉溪市柑桔种植区进行气候适宜性分析。按照分析结果,将玉溪柑桔种植区划分为适宜、次适宜和不适宜气候区,并制作了细网格区划专题图,有利于柑桔本地化产业种植,为玉溪柑桔种植区的合理布局和发展规划提供参考依据。     

Biodeterioration of historic timber structures: A comparative analysis

Abstract

Service life of timber structures in the north of Europe is decreased mainly by biological agents. Increasing risk of biological infestation due to global warming is widely discussed nowadays. Historic timber structures which have been monitored for decades provide us with valuable information on this subject. An investigation of the structures in the Kizhi museum, located in the northwest of Russia was carried out in the 1970s and in 2011–2012. Identification of wood-decay fungi that destroy constructive elements of seventeenth- and nineteenth-century monuments showed that the most frequent damages are caused by brown rot fungi. At the same time, imperfect fungi and ascomycetes which cause soft rot began to play a significant role in damaging historic timber structures. Borers (Hadrobregmus pertinax L. and H. confusus Kraaz) play the leading part in reducing the service life of seventeenth- and nineteenth-century heritage objects. During a forest inventory, some wood-borers not registered previously as timber structure pests in the Kizhi archipelago region (Republic of Karelia, Russia) were found. Twenty-seven species of foliose and fruticose lichens and ten species of crustose lichens were found on the monuments' structural elements.     

宁夏中部干旱带气候变化及其对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响

根据宁夏中部干旱带盐池县、同心县和海原县气象站1961—2011年平均气温和降水量资料,分析该区域气候变化特征和规律,应用Miami和Thornthwaite Memorial模型探讨该区域春玉米生产潜力及其变化特征,并深入研究气候变化对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响。结果表明:1)研究区气候呈气温明显升高、降水波动减少的"暖干型"趋势变化。2)春玉米温度生产潜力呈逐年增加,降水和气候生产潜力呈波动中减少的趋势。3)研究区春玉米气候生产潜力平均值为5 037kg/(hm2·年),气候生产潜力与年平均降水量有着极其显著的线性相关,与年平均气温没有明显的线性相关,表明降水条件是制约研究区春玉米气候生产潜力的关键因子。未来气候变化显著影响着春玉米气候生产潜力,其中降水量变化对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响远大于气温变化的影响,降水的多少及变率对其限制作用将更明显。因此,应大力发展农业技术,合理安排农作物布局来适应气候变化,以保证春玉米产量和品质。     

Does post‐anthesis heat stress affect plant phenology,physiology, grain yield and protein content of durum wheat in a semi‐arid Mediterranean environment?

Increasing air temperature due to changing climate is projected to decrease the length of the growing season, hasten vegetative development and maturation, and ultimately affect yield of many C3 crops. Previous multilocation trials highlighted strong relationships between thermal trends in the interval “beginning of flowering‐end of grain filling” and grain yield, and protein content in durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum (Desf.) Husn.). With the aim to confirm these relationships, nine durum wheat genotypes, including old (Capeiti 8, Senatore Cappelli and Trinakria) and modern (Amedeo, Arcangelo, Mongibello, Simeto, and Svevo) varieties and a Sicilian landrace (Russello) were grown at three different sites representing a climate gradient in Sicily, Italy. Moreover, the effect of post‐anthesis heat stress on these durum wheats was further investigated in two contrasting environments: open‐field (control—C) and greenhouse heat stress (HS). HS shortened the interval “beginning‐end of flowering” of 1.5 days across genotypes, and the “end of flowering‐beginning of grain filling” and maturation of 4.9 days, with a range of 1 day in Arcangelo to 11 days in Cappelli. Advances in main phenophases significantly decreased kernel weight (KW) and grain yield (GY), whereas grain protein content (PC) increased. As expected, a negative relationship was observed between GY and PC, while positive relationships were found for GY and grain‐filling duration (GFD), and GY and KW. Genotypes responded differently to heat stress, as evidenced by the net photosynthesis, transpiration rate, instantaneous water use efficiency and dry matter accumulation in kernels. Genotypes were ranked according to the heat susceptibility index (HSI): Amedeo, Arcangelo, Capeiti 8, Svevo and Trinakria resulted heat‐tolerant. These varieties were characterized by an early trigger of dry matter accumulation in kernels under HS (Amedeo, Arcangelo and Trinakria), or showed similar length of the GFD (Capeiti 8) between environments. The multilocation trial confirmed a negative relationship between maximum temperatures and grain yield, and a positive relationship between minimum temperatures and protein content during grain–filling periods. Research focusing on agronomic strategies, phenology and breeding for tolerance to heat stress is of strategic importance to cope with the detrimental effect of global warming in semi‐arid climates.