Yield Stability of Winter Wheat (Triticum sp.) Cultivars and Lines

The purpose of this study was to compare responsiveness to environment as well as the stability of newly developed promising lines with traditional commercial cultivars. Subject research was conducted in Ankara between 1983-1989 on common and durum wheat cultivars and lines. Regression coefficient (b) was used as the criterion of genotypes' responsiveness to environment whereas deviation from regression (S²d) and coefficient of determination (r²) were used as stability parameters. Each experiment year was regarded as an environment and yield average of each year was used as the environmental index.
In consequence of the research, it was determined that new varieties with high yield, adaptable to diverse environments could be developed by means of hybridizations between parents having different genetic characteristics which were provided from diverse ecological regions.     

浅谈建立郑州市道路路面养护管理系统

路面管理系统是通过对路面运行状况、使用性能、使用周期、进行对比、分析，预测路面管理的最佳养护预算投资并在最佳养护经济投资条件等各种因素限制下，寻求道路养护管理最佳战略决策。     

基于广义混合效应模型的云冷杉林天然更新计数方法研究

天然更新是森林恢复较好的办法,对未来林分结构和生物多样性具有深远的影响。更新模型能够模拟天然更新的现实和未来状况,为森林经营者提供准确的森林计划。以吉林省汪清林业局2013年设置的12块云冷杉针阔混交林为例,选择泊松和负二项分布形式,考虑样地间的随机效应,构建基于林分因子的云冷杉针阔混交林天然更新模型。结果表明：各个树种对林分因子的反应不一,白桦更新株数与林分每公顷株数和平均直径均呈负相关;红松和水曲柳更新株数不受各个林分因子的影响,更新株数是随机的;冷杉更新株数与林分每公顷断面积呈负相关;色木槭和云杉更新株数均与林分平均直径呈负相关。在考虑样地的随机截距效应后,模型的模拟效果显著提高。在构建天然更新模型时,林分密度是十分重要的因子,如果要人工促进天然更新,就要科学合理的采取经营措施,以确保合理的林分密度。另外样地间的差异是不容忽略的因素,需要利用混合效应模型方法来降低预测误差。     

基于线性谱聚类的林地图像中枯死树监测

【目的】将基于线性谱聚类超像素的方法应用在森林病虫害防治领域,可智能监测无人机森林虫害图像中的枯死树,为森林有害生物的监测工作提供技术支撑。【方法】分别以湖北省受松材线虫与辽宁省受红脂大小蠹侵害的松林无人机图像为试验数据,首先使用线性谱聚类超像素分割算法将图像划分为多个超像素;然后基于枯死树木的颜色特征,初步提取可能为枯死树的超像素区域;最后基于枯死树木与其他干扰地物具有不同的纹理特征,计算超像素的区域密度和缝隙量,利用支持向量机对初步提取的超像素进行分类,从而检测出图像中的枯死树。【结果】基于线性谱聚类超像素和支持向量机的枯死树监测方法可有效排除与枯死树木颜色相近的其他干扰地物,较准确地提取出枯死树木。使用该方法与基于植被颜色指数的阈值分割方法、基于简单线性迭代聚类超像素和随机森林的方法,对35幅受灾松林无人机图像进行试验,并选用交并比、虚警率和漏检率3个评价指标对3种方法进行定量对比分析。结果表明,基于线性谱聚类超像素的方法监测出的枯死树区域最精确,其监测结果与人工检测结果的交并比均值大于58%,且虚警率和漏检率均优于另外2种方法。【结论】基于线性谱聚类超像素的枯死树监测方法能实现松林中枯死树的快速、准确检测及定位。     

中蜂越夏及秋季繁殖试验

在贵州锦屏进行的中蜂越夏及秋繁试验表明，４框以上的群势越夏较为安全。越夏期间每框足蜂约需补喂白糖１．５公斤。越夏后，蜂群群势约下降１／３左右。蜂群在越夏期间飞逃的主要原因是缺蜜及巢虫危害。当地中蜂在秋季大流蜜初期发生分蜂，分蜂群势均为８框足蜂以上，７框左右不分群。为控制不同起繁群势的蜂群在秋季大流蜜初期正好繁殖到７框左右，不致因分蜂影响秋冬蜜的采集，应分期起步秋繁。根据本试验所建秋季起繁群势（ｘ）与达７框群势所需繁殖天数（ｙ）之间的回归直线方程推算，在起繁群势为１～５框蜂量时，最适的秋繁开始期，１框群为７月３１日，２框群８月１０日……蜂群的基础群势每增加一框，则秋繁开始期应相应推迟１０～１１天。     

Microsoft Excel sensitivity analysis for linear and stochastic program feed formulation

Sensitivity analysis is a part of mathematical programming solutions and is used in making nutritional and economic decisions for a given feed formulation problem. The terms shadow price and reduced cost are familiar linear program (LP) terms to feed formulators. Because of the nonlinear nature of stochastic programming (SP), different methods and terminology are used to define shadow prices and reduced costs. The Lagrange multiplier is used instead of shadow price to describe marginal value of nutrients. Reduced gradient is used instead of reduced cost to describe the price at which ingredients not used in the formulation would be included in the solution. A spreadsheet feed problem was set up with 11 ingredients and 11 constraints. The LP and SP solutions were determined using the Excel Solver algorithm. Two problems compared LP and SP solutions at 50 and 69% probabilities for the protein constraint. All other constraints were held at a 50% probability. Results for the 50% probability comparison showed that the feed formulations, as expected, were the same for both LP and SP. Wheat was not included in the solution. The LP reduced cost and the SP reduced gradient for unused wheat were equivalent. The LP shadow prices and the SP Lagrange multipliers were equivalent. Results for the 69% probability problem showed a difference in the formulated rations. The LP reduced cost was $34.25 and the SP reduced cost was $34.52, showing the respective amounts that the cost of wheat would have to be reduced to be included in the solution. The shadow price and the Lagrange multiplier were $2.73 and $2.71, respectively, for the amount of increase in diet cost that could be expected by a unit of change in the protein requirement. Some differences in precision were noted with the results. A caveat is that, because of nonlinearity, sensitivity analysis for SP is valid only for the single point of the optimal solution.     

Evaluation of smallholder pig production systems in North Vietnam: Pig production management and pig performances

This study investigated the productive adaptability of pig breeds under different smallholder production conditions in Vietnam, comparing an indigenous with a Vietnamese improved breed. Fieldwork was conducted in four villages with different remoteness in North Vietnam from 2001 to 2002, in 64 households keeping the improved Mong Cai or indigenous Ban as sow breeds and progeny for fattening. Four visits per farm yielded 234 structured interviews. Reproductive performances were derived from 135 litters. Individual weights of pigs (n = 755) were obtained. Data were analysed by regression, linear and generalised linear, especially loglinear models.

Two distinct pig production systems were identified, that differed in remoteness, market access, resource availability, distribution of pig breeds and pig production intensity. Higher performances of 1.4 and 1.5 litters year^− 1, 8.4 and 8.4 piglets weaned litter^− 1, 66.6 and 93.0 kg piglets weaned sow^− 1 year^− 1, and 136 and 177 g day^− 1 ADG were found in two villages near town with semi-intensive production conditions and a high rate of improved Mong Cai sows and MC and LW × MC offspring in the observed population. Lower performances of 1.1 and 1.1 litters year^− 1, 4.6 and 5.5 piglets weaned litter^− 1, 20.5 and 30.9 kg piglets weaned sow^− 1 year^− 1, and 66 and 85 g day^− 1 ADG were observed in parallel to higher incidences of indigenous Ban pigs away from town under extensive conditions. Total live weight offtake per household per year was higher near town and in one village distant to town. MC and LW × MC remained even under demand-driven conditions below the performance potential reported for improved genotypes. Under resource-driven conditions with a saving-oriented production pattern, the higher-yielding but more demanding Mong Cai might not be an efficient production alternative as a further performance reduction can be assumed. A considerable live weight output was observed under resource-driven conditions and with a higher percentage of crossbred LW × Ban offspring in the population, possibly representing a promising production alternative. Factors influencing the performance expression of pigs, and the suitability of different methods for the assessment of performance parameters on-farm are discussed.     

An Adjustable Nutrient Margin of Safety Comparison Using Linear and Stochastic Programming in an Excel Spreadsheet

A stochastic-linear program Excel workbook was developed that consisted of 2 worksheets illustrating linear and stochastic program approaches. Both approaches used the Excel Solver add-in. A published linear program problem served as an example for the ingredients, nutrients, and costs and as a benchmark in the development of the linear and stochastic programs. Standard deviations for ME and nutrients were taken or calculated from CV, and from a commercial publication of sources for amino acids. The Excel spreadsheet was set up so that the calculated margin of safety (MOS) value, according to the requested probability, was the same for both the linear and stochastic programs. As an example, the probability for meeting the nutrient value for protein was compared at 50% (MOS = 0) and 69% (MOS = 0.5) by using both linear and stochastic programming. Spreadsheet results illustrated the flexibility, accuracy, and precision of the stochastic program over the linear program in meeting the requested nutrient probability.     

甘肃高山细毛羊的生产效益分析

根据收集不同年龄羊的养殖产投数据，建立数学模型，得知纯收入最高，应在1．6岁屠宰，但考虑牧草供给与绵羊生长情况，最佳屠宰年龄还与出栏率有关。     

利用广义线性模型预测家畜离散性状育种值

将广义线性混合模型(GLMM)引入动物离散性状的遗传分析及个体的遗传评定,初步比较了GLMM方法与一般线性方法(LM)的估计效果。模拟研究的性状为单阈值二项分类性状,选用的连接函数为对数连接μi=eη/(1+eη),方差函数为V(μi)=μ(i1-μi)/n,试验设计为全同胞-半同胞混合家系,参数估计采用Fisher迹法。结果表明:GLMM方法能较准确地估计公畜的个体育种值,在个体的遗传评定效果方面要明显优于常规的线性方法,其预测的育种值排序结果与真实育种值的排序之间存在极显著的相关性(P<0.001)。