Analysis of a Long-term Experiment with Repeated-measurement Models

Long‐term experiments are a classical case of repeated measurements. Traits are measured on the same experimental unit over many years so that correlations arise between the observations made on the same plot in consecutive years. This paper describes the analysis of a three‐crop‐rotation long‐term experiment. We analysed the yields of the crops and the organic carbon content in the topsoil over 30 consecutive years. Several variance–covariance approaches are discussed and the trait‐specific best fit is interpreted. Mixed models are used to describe the structure of the experiment. Both yields and soil organic carbon show a more or less pronounced variance heterogeneity. Especially for yields, the heterogeneity of cycles and years is dominant. The consideration of correlations results in a better model fit in all cases.     

浅谈建立郑州市道路路面养护管理系统

路面管理系统是通过对路面运行状况、使用性能、使用周期、进行对比、分析，预测路面管理的最佳养护预算投资并在最佳养护经济投资条件等各种因素限制下，寻求道路养护管理最佳战略决策。     

日粮锌、硒水平对肉鸡肠道黏膜屏障结构的影响

为了探讨微量元素锌和硒相互作用对肉鸡肠道黏膜屏障结构的影响，将24只1日龄AA肉鸡随机分3组，分别饲喂添加有高锌高硒(锌1000mg／kg、硒5mg／kg)、低锌低硒(锌34mg／kg、硒0．08mg／kg)或常锌常硒(锌50mg／kg、硒0．15mg／kg)的日粮45d后，观察肠黏膜上皮细胞、上皮内淋巴细胞和盲肠扁桃体的形态结构变化。结果表明：高锌高硒或低锌低硒组肉鸡的肠黏膜结构有明显的损伤，表现为肠黏膜上皮细胞萎缩，绒毛长度下降，上皮内淋巴细胞数量减少；盲肠扁桃体的弥散淋巴组织和淋巴小结中，淋巴细胞数量减少，细胞出现肿胀，有的核消失，结缔组织增生，淋巴小结萎缩。尤其是高锌高硒组的损伤最为严重。而常锌常硒组肉鸡肠黏膜和盲肠扁桃体的形态结构正常。结论：日粮中按锌50mg／kg、硒0．15mg／kg的比例添加，对于维持肠道黏膜的正常屏障结构是合适的。过高或过低的锌和硒对小肠黏膜有毒性作用，破坏其屏障功能；而且高锌和高硒可相互促进以增强其毒性作用。     

松嫩平原羊草草地水淹干扰恢复过程的群落动态

根据随机取样的测定数据，经过幂函数和多元回归分析及相关检验，揭示了草地水淹干扰对羊草 寸草苔、羊草 杂类草群范数量性状的变化规律。水淹干扰对草地植被的物种组成及其比例有明显的影响。水淹后基本恢复到正常草地的种类数量和生产量配置大约需要6—7年。随着生境水分减少和土壤变干，羊草种群的数量和生物量均以幂函数形式增加，而寸草苔和杂类草的数量和生物量则呈先增后降的变化过程。     

一类挖坑机械钻头横向振动系统的最优控制问题

建立了一类挖坑机械钻头横向振动系统的数学模型,并以阻尼函数作为控制变量,研究了该系统的最优控制问题,得出了两个定理。     

对小麦F1代正反杂交组合的灰色关联度分析

运用灰色系统的理论和方法,对2002～2003年18个小麦F1代正反杂交组合的7个主要性状进行综合分析,计算其灰色关联度,分析正反杂交组合的差异,结果表明:200237品系最好,200212品系次之,200246品系最差.同时只有200237和200238、200213和200214品系的正反杂交组合表现为优良组合.     

岷江上游乡村社区贫困成因及扶贫模式初探——以四川黑水国家扶贫开发重点县为例

农村发展包括乡村社区发展和农户发展两个方面 ,二者不能偏废。以岷江上游国家扶贫开发重点县———黑水为例 ,探讨乡村社区贫困成因及扶贫模式。社区贫困是多种因素长期综合作用的结果 ,包括自然环境条件、传统习俗与贫困文化结合、道路交通贫乏、森林资源利用政策以及落后守旧的农业生产技术和手段。乡村社区扶贫不同于区域扶贫 ,应以新村建设和易地迁建为主 ,辅以劳务输出、旅游开发和教育扶持。     

胶合板厂生产规划模型与运用

本文根据胶合板厂实际情况，建立了杨木胶合板厂生产规划模型。该模型考虑各主要设备工段、产品组合、产品混合、产品价格、流动资金、原材料供应以及市场约束等问题。本模型能够满足市场竞争，获取最佳利润，同时还能解决胶合板厂“三板”（表、背、芯单板）不平衡问题。     

Spring invasion of Heterodera schachtii in sugarbeet; a simulation study

A simulation model was developed for the spring invasion of the beet cyst nematode,Heterodera schachtii Schmidt, into sugarbeet roots, according to the state variable approach. This model describes the processes of egghatch, emergence of second stage larvae from cysts, migration to roots and penetration into roots quantitatively, using published data.In 1983 a field experiment was conducted to test this model.H. schachtii cysts were introduced at depths 6–29 cm in PVC-cylinders, buried in the soil. The rooting depth of sugarbeet seedlings, growing in these cylinders, was limited to 5 cm by 50 m mesh nylon gauze. Every 10 days the second stage larvae, which had penetrated into the roots of these seedlings were counted. After 50 days, about 40% of the eggs had hatched. More than 20% of the emerged larvae penetrated if the cysts had been buried undeeply, and only 4% if the cysts had been buried at 29 cm depth.The model predicted the course of penetration into the root during the first 40 days with reasonable accuracy (r²=0.79), but in the 5th period of 10 days the model made an overestimation of more than 100%. Egghatch after 50 days was correctly simulated. The differences in penetration into the root between the model and the experiment might result from an oversimplified simulation of the penetration success or the neglection of mortality of second stage larvae. Detailed experiments should be done to provide better parameters for these factors.Samenvatting Volgens de toestandsvariabele-benadering werd een simulatiemodel ontwikkeld van de voorjaarspenetratie van het bietecystenaaltje. Het model beschrijft aan de hand van literatuurgegevens het uikomen van de eieren, het verlaten van de cyst door de larven, de migratie naar en de penetratie in de wortel.In 1983 werd een veldproef uitgevoerd om het model te toetsen. Cysten vanH. schachtii werden op 5 dieptes tussen 6 en 29 cm ingegraven in PVC-cylinders, welke waren verzonken in de bodem. De bewortelingsdiepte van de suikerbiete-zaailingen die hierin groeiden werd beperkt tot 5 cm door nylon gaas van 50 m maaswijdte. Elke 10 dagen werden de larven geteld die in de wortels van deze plantjes waren gepenetreerd. Na 50 dagen was 40% van de eieren uitgekomen. Meer dan 20% van de gelokte larven penetreerden als de cysten ondiep waren ingegraven, en slechts 4% als de cysten op 29 cm diepte waren ingegraven.Gedurende de eerste 40 dagen werd het verloop van de penetratie in de wortel met redelijke nauwkeurigheid door het model voorspeld (r²=0.79). In de 5e periode van 10 dagen maakte het model echter een overschatting van meer dan 100%. Het uitkomen van de eieren werd correct gesimuleerd. De verschillen in penetratie tussen het model en de proef zouden het gevolg kunnen zijn van een oververeenvoudigde simulatie van het penetratiesucces of van het verwaarlozen van de mortaliteit van de migrerende larven. Betere gegevens hierover zullen moeten komen uit detailproeven.     

关联度分析在农业生态系统技术调控上的应用

农业生态系统是个“灰箱”.我们运用模糊数学的关联度分析,尝试对这类灰色系统的投入进行技术调控,并取得了良好的效果.通过对农田子系统投入的化肥(尤其是N化肥)、粪肥和还田秸秆进行技术调控的实例证明;它可以作为能、物流分析的辅助手段,互相取长补短.通过关联序分析和关联系数分析,来调整系统的投入结构和投入技艺(时、空、量级及方式的选择).本文提出了应用关联度分析的基本程序和要领以及“贡献曲线”、“潜力曲线”等概念.