水库汛期分期方法研究及其应用

应用矢量统计法和相对频率法，基于年最大值取样以及超定量取样进行汛期分期计算，并与现有的方法进行比较研究。实例应用结果表明，这两种方法均可用于汛期的分期计算中，具有一定的实用价值。     

基于信息扩散近似推理的年径流量预测模型

通过分析年径流时间序列的特性,利用信息扩散近似推理描述年径流量间的复杂非线性关系,建立起基于信息扩散近似推理的年径流预测模型.信息扩散近似推理将样本点转换成模糊集,部分弥补了由于数据的不完备性所造成的信息空白,并可以将矛盾模式转换成兼容模式.通过与传统预测方法相比较,发现该模型能够很好地光滑样本数据以及能够较好地发掘知识,有较高的预测精度和推广应用价值.     

An Expert Knowledge-acquisition Method on Line of Automatic Excluding Errors

Aimed at soving the problem existing in the knowledge-acquisition directing-operation expert systems, a new method is proposed to acquire knowledge of expert-operation, excluding errors existed in examples and reinforce the accuracy of examples,the goal of knowledge acquisition can be achieved, the method presented in this paper solves the problem of self-enhancement of expert knowledge on line efficiently.     

Environmental correlates of two macro-decapods distribution in Central Italy: Multi-dimensional ecological knowledge as a tool for conservation of endangered species

Using a multi-dimensional ecological design, this study aimed first to analyse whether local environmental conditions can account for the spatial segregation of two Italian native decapods, the crayfish Austropotamobius italicus and the river crab Potamon fluviatile, in Central Italy freshwater ecosystems. Second, we aimed to analyse which environmental variables were more closely associated with the presence/absence of the two decapods in specific sites within their distribution area. Following a factorial design, a total of 32 sites were selected in two neighbouring geographic areas, one occupied by crayfish and one by crabs. Within each distribution area, eight streams where the decapod was present and eight where it was not present were selected. At each site, macro-invertebrate community composition and 16 abiotic variables were recorded and analysed with multi-variate methods. Variations in physical (minimum and maximum temperatures), chemical (calcium, oxygen, nitrate and nitrite) and geomorphological (substrate composition) parameters explained spatial segregation of P. fluviatile and A. italicus in the study area. The occurrence of crayfish reflected variations of chemistry (such as pH, calcium, nitrate and nitrite concentrations), temperature, water depth and substrate composition. On the contrary, the presence of the river crab, within its occurrence zone, was not associated to any biotic and abiotic parameters and was probably affected by anthropogenic pressure and uncontrolled harvesting. These findings provide fundamental ecological data for the maintenance of the two decapod natural populations as well as for the selection of areas and streams adequate for their reintroduction.     

The magnitude and variability of soil-surface CO2 efflux increase with mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests

Soil-surface CO₂ efflux (F_S; ‘soil respiration’) accounts for ≥50% of the CO₂ released annually by the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, and the magnitude and variability of this flux are likely to be sensitive to climate change. We measured F_S in nine permanent plots along a 5.2 °C mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (13-18.2 °C) in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests where substrate type and age, soil type, soil water balance, disturbance history, and canopy vegetation are constant. The objectives of this study were to quantify how the (i) magnitude, (ii) plot-level spatial variability, and (iii) plot-level diel variability of F_S vary with MAT. To address the first objective, annual F_S budgets were constructed by measuring instantaneous F_S monthly in all plots for one year. For the second objective, we compared plot-level mean instantaneous F_S in six plots derived from 8 versus 16 measurements, and conducted a power analysis to determine adequate sample sizes. For the third objective, we measured instantaneous F_S hourly for 24 h in three plots (cool, intermediate and warm MATs). The magnitude of annual F_S and the spatial variability of plot-level instantaneous F_S increased linearly with MAT, likely due to concomitant increases in stand productivity. Mean plot-level instantaneous F_S from 8 versus 16 measurements per plot yielded statistically similar patterns. The number of samples required to estimate plot-level instantaneous F_S within 10% and 20% of the actual mean increased with MAT. In two of three plots examined, diel variability in instantaneous F_S was significantly correlated with soil temperature but minimal diel fluctuations in soil temperature (<0.6 °C) resulted in minimal diel variability in F_S. Our results suggest that as MAT increases in tropical montane wet forests, F_S will increase and become more spatially variable if ecosystem characteristics and functioning undergo concurrent changes as measured along this gradient. However, diel variation in F_S will remain a minor component of overall plot-level variation.     

周年施氮对冬小麦-夏大豆轮作产量及土壤氮素含量的影响

为探讨周年不同施氮组合对冬小麦-夏大豆轮作体系土壤氮素及产量影响规律,于2017-2018年,在伊宁县农业科技示范园内开展大田试验,以冬小麦-夏大豆轮作为研究对象,在前茬麦季设置4个施氮水平:0(N0)、104(N1)、173(N2)、242 kg·hm-2(N3);后茬大豆设置3个施氮水平:0(S0)、69(S1)、...     

黄土高原北部草地表层土壤水分状态空间模拟

为探明黄土高原北部草地表层土壤水分空间分布特征及其与环境因素的关系,该文用自回归状态空间模型和经典统计的线性回归模型对该区草地表层土壤含水率的分布状况进行了模拟。结果表明,状态空间方程可以应用于环境因素复杂的黄土高原水蚀风蚀交错区,其拟合效果优于线性回归模型。单因素中基于饱和导水率的模拟效果最佳（R2 = 0.936）;多因素模拟中以饱和导水率+海拔+凋落物模拟效果最佳（R2 = 0.976）,可以很好地解释表层土壤水分的变异状况。自回归状态空间模型可用于研究黄土高原北部水蚀风蚀交错区表层土壤水分与其他因素的空间关系。     

基于滑动无偏灰色马尔科夫模型的水库年降雨量预测

为了判别灰色模型与灰色马尔科夫模型哪一个更适合于降雨量的预测,以山西省寿阳县蔡庄水库为研究对象,通过灰色模拟、无偏灰色模拟、滑动无偏灰色模拟3种模拟方法对研究区40a的降雨量进行数值模拟,比较了3种方法的精确程度。选出最优方法,将精度最高的滑动无偏灰色模型辅以马尔科夫模型,形成灰色马尔科夫模型,再与灰色模型作对比较,判断其精度。结果表明,灰色模型对于长期预测和波动性较大的数据列拟合效果较差,灰色马尔科夫模型能够更好地适应数据的波动性,模拟效果更好。因此,在改进灰色模型的基础上辅以马尔科夫模型,形成改进的灰色马尔科夫模型,发挥出灰色模型与马尔科夫模型各自的优点,达到了更好的模拟效果。     

基于峰谷电价和年费用法进行输水方案的比选

选择合理的输水方案是降低输水工程费用的重要途径,合适的比较方法则是优选方案的前提。该文提出了基于峰谷电价的年费用法作为输水方案的比较方法。在满足输水水量、水压和可靠性的要求下提出不同的输水方案,考虑资金的时间价值、管网的动力费用、峰谷电价、折旧大修费用等因素,计算不同输水方案的最小年费用值,比较其大小,以此作为输水方案的优选依据。     

三类中文核心期刊被我校学报论文引用的情况调查

对《甘肃农业大学学报》１９９１～１９９７年期间所刊农学、草原、畜牧、兽医４个专业论文引用的中文核心期刊进行统计排序、并与《中文核心期刊要目总览》第２版中文核心期刊表对应类目作比较研究,结果表明采藏的中文核心期刊基本能满足教学科研的需求。