长输油气管道经济寿命测算

油气管道运行寿命按其性质分为设计寿命、物理寿命和经济寿命,经济寿命的确定方法包括年均成本最小法和费用效益法,而费用效益法又包括年均利润最大法和总体收益分析法。年均成本最小法主要适用于成本中心和收入状况比较稳定或收入受计划控制而偏重成本控制的人为利润中心;费用效益法主要从运行效益的角度,根据经营者的承受程度和偏好,给出不同的经济运行参考年限。基于东北管网某管道的实际数据选用年均成本最小法和年均利润最大法,分别从全寿命周期和剩余寿命期两个视角,采用动态计算法,对该管道进行经济寿命测算,取得了具有参考价值的评估结果。     

祁连山青海云杉径向生长对气候的响应

为探明树木径向生长对气候变化的响应,以祁连山中部下限青海云杉为研究对象,采用年表气候相关分析和特征年分析方法,研究了青海云杉的年轮宽度、早材宽度、晚材宽度标准化年表与月均温度和降雨量的关系。结果表明:年轮宽度、早材宽度、晚材宽度与6、7月的月均温度显著负相关。年轮宽度、早材宽度与3、5、6月的降雨量显著正相关,与9月的降雨量显著负相关;晚材宽度与降雨量无显著相关,晚材宽度对气候的敏感性弱于早材宽度。特征年分析进一步发现:当夏季温度高于同期温度而夏季降雨量又低于同期降雨量时,容易形成窄年轮;相反,当夏季温度低于同期温度而夏季降雨量又高于同期降雨量时,容易形成宽年轮。表明春季和夏季降雨量对祁连山中部下限青海云杉的径向生长有促进作用,而夏季温度有抑制作用。      

一年生黑麦草制取燃料酒精发酵工艺的初步研究

 以分别经过酸预处理（１％ Ｈ₂ＳＯ₄）和碱预处理（１０％ ＮａＯＨ）,再用绿色木酶酶解的一年生黑麦草邦德（Ａｂｕｎｄａｎｔ）为材料,进行了燃料酒精发酵工艺研究。结果表明,通过预处理后,方案１（普通酵母＋毕赤酵母,体积比７∶３）的相对最优发酵条件为：温度３７℃,菌株浓度１０％,ｐＨ５．５,时间４８ｈ。方案２（普通酵母＋毕赤酵母＋黑曲霉,体积比７∶３∶２）的相对最优发酵条件为：温度３７℃,菌株浓度１２％,ｐＨ５．５,时间４８ｈ。２种方案中,菌株浓度和发酵温度是比较重要的影响因素。对于酸碱预处理而言,均是发酵方案２ 的原料酒精转化率相对较高,分别为８．３６％和８．３９％,差异不显著。     

区域尺度下气候因子的插值优化及其与草地NPP的相关性

利用甘肃省及周边42个气象站点的气象数据和154个草地样地地上生物量（风干质量）实测数据,在AMMRR插值方法的基础上,加入坡度、坡向两个变量,对甘肃省1996－2005年的年均温和年降水量、不同季节温度和降水量进行空间模拟,并分析了甘肃省年均温和年降水量的空间分布格局,以及草地净初级生产力(NPP)对年均温、年降水量和不同季节温度、降水量的响应。结果表明,1）相对其他插值方法,引入了坡度、坡向等微观地理因子的AMMRR插值方法,可充分体现甘肃省的年均温、年降水量受地形影响的微观变化,更符合实际情况。2）除冬季外,草地NPP与不同时期的温度之间均呈显著负相关（P<0.01）,与不同时期的降水量均呈显著正相关（P<0.01）,而且与降水量的相关性明显高于温度。     

基于多方法的高海拔城市暴雨强度公式分析

以定量衡量区域降雨规律为目标,推求了林芝市巴宜区城市的暴雨强度公式,收集了1993~2016年共计24年的降雨数据整编资料;采用年最大值法筛选出11个不同降雨历时的暴雨数据并进行水文频率统计分析;选取对数正态分布曲线、耿贝尔分布曲线和P-Ⅲ型分布曲线进行频率适线;采用麦夸特全局优化法、准牛顿全局优化法、模拟退火法、粒子群算法以及遗传算法分别对三种适线结果进行暴雨强度总公式的参数求解。结果表明:耿贝尔分布曲线相对另两种曲线精度最好,五种计算方法对三种曲线结果进行求解得到的暴雨值与实测值误差分析均符合要求。     

主要气候因素与云南松天然林生长率的关系研究

依据森林资源连续清查获得的云南松天然林样地调查数据及气象数据,研究了年均温、年均降水量与云南松天然林平均胸径生长率的关系。结果表明,不同年均温区域云南松天然林样木平均胸径生长率总体上呈现出温度越高生长率越大的趋势,但趋势在年均温为16℃时出现了拐点,当年均温>16℃时,随着年均温的升高,云南松天然林生长率反而开始降低。在不同降水量区域的云南松天然林平均胸径生长率总体上与年均降水量呈正相关,降水量越大,生长越快。但在降水量为900~1099mm区域,6~16径阶云南松天然林的生长率却超过了降水量≥1100mm区域。文中对上述现象进行了讨论,认为其原因涉及云南松的适生区、生态稳定性以及林木的生物学与生态学机制等。     

泰国土地发展部顾问Chinapatana Sukvibool先生论东南亚森林植被变化与土壤侵蚀管理

[目的]回顾和总结近年来东南亚地区森林植被变化与水土流失演变领域研究项目的成果,并探讨东南亚地区改良后的保育措施在流域尺度水土流失与产沙管理方面的成效。[方法]根据东南亚各国不同时空尺度的数据,分析了该区森林植被的变化及采取的对策。选择泰国实施流域管理的地区为研究区,阐述了被动和主动侵蚀控制策略的有效性和实用性。[结果]①在2000—2005年期间,东南亚地区的森林面积大幅减少,累计年度森林砍伐率达到2.76×10~6 hm~2。然而,由于森林种植园的建立,该区森林覆盖率近期已经增加。②东南亚雾霾是一种定期发生的大范围空气污染问题,它在很大程度上起因于农业上的非法放火烧荒。③东南亚地区土壤侵蚀管理措施包括带状种植、等高耕作、条状种植、草障、保护性耕作、免耕种植和植物篱间作。尽管在小区尺度上,保护措施在减少径流方面发挥了良好的作用,但对大尺度而言,其作用还有待进一步的研究和验证。水土保持对产量的潜在影响可能是影响水土保持投资价值的一个关键因素。[结论]东南亚地区森林覆盖变化的挑战既真实又迫切。我们应该建立区域防控机制减少森林火灾和雾霾,并通过保持一个可持续的林业,维护陆地生物多样性减少土壤侵蚀。为低收入小户型农民选择适当的水土保持方法,对于降低水土流失速度和提高作物产量至关重要。     

Validating a Time Series of Annual Grass Percent Cover in the Sagebrush Ecosystem

We mapped yearly (2000–2016) estimates of annual grass percent cover for much of the sagebrush ecosystem of the western United States using remotely sensed, climate, and geophysical data in regression-tree models. Annual grasses senesce and cure by early summer and then become beds of fine fuel that easily ignite and spread fire through rangeland systems. Our annual maps estimate the extent of these fuels and can serve as a tool to assist land managers and scientists in understanding the ecosystem’s response to weather variations, disturbances, and management. Validating the time series of annual maps is important for determining the usefulness of the data. To validate these maps, we compare Bureau of Land Management Assessment Inventory and Monitoring (AIM) data to mapped estimates and use a leave-one-out spatial assessment technique that is effective for validating maps that cover broad geographical extents. We hypothesize that the time series of annual maps exhibits high spatiotemporal variability because precipitation is highly variable in arid and semiarid environments where sagebrush is native, and invasive annual grasses respond to precipitation. The remotely sensed data that help drive our regression-tree model effectively measures annual grasses’ response to precipitation. The mean absolute error (MAE) rate varied depending on the validation data and technique used for comparison. The AIM plot data and our maps had substantial spatial incongruence, but despite this, the MAE rate for the assessment equaled 12.62%. The leave-one-out accuracy assessment had an MAE of 8.43%. We quantified bias, and bias was more substantial at higher percent cover. These annual maps can help management identify actions that may alleviate the current cycle of invasive grasses because it enables the assessment of the variability of annual grass ? percent cover distribution through space and time, as part of dynamic systems rather than static systems.     

Length of lags in responses of milk yield and somatic cell score on test day to heat stress in Holsteins

We used daily records from provincial Japanese weather stations and monthly test‐day records of milk production to investigate the length of the lags in the responses of cows’ milk yield and somatic cell score (SCS) to heat stress (HS). We also investigated the HS thresholds in milk yield and SCS. Data were a total of 17,245,709 test‐day records for milk and SCS in Holstein cows that had calved for the first time between 2000 and 2015, along with weather records from 60 weather stations. Temperature–humidity index (THI) values were estimated by using average daily temperature and average daily relative humidity. Adjusted THI values were calculated by using temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. The model contained herd, calving year, month of test day, age group, days in milk, and THI as a fixed effect. THIs for each day from 14 days before the test day until the test day were used to represent the HS effects. The HS occurring 3 days, and between 8 and 10 days, before the test day had the greatest effect on the milk yield and SCS, respectively. The threshold THI values for the HS effect were about 60–65 for both traits.