农网电力负荷中期预测方法探讨

电力负荷中期预测是指未来3～5年的负荷预测,是制定电力系统发展规划的基础,也是规划工作的重要组成部分,其目的是为合理地安排电源和电网建设进度提供宏观决策的依据,使电力建设满足国民经济增长和人民生活水平提高的需要。为此,通过对各种预测方法及特点的分析比较,得出用灰色模型预测方法作为农网电力负荷中期预测的方法,且该方法所需原始数据少、误差小、精度高。     

基于平衡策略的支持向量机在电力系统中期负荷预测的应用

针对电力负荷中期预测比较困难并且存在较大误差的问题,提出了基于径向基核函数与基于平衡策略的Sequential minimal optimization(SMO)改进算法相结合的负荷中期预测方法,结合EUNITE网络提供的实际数据,研究了日最大负荷的前后期关系、日最大负荷与节假日的关系和当日与对应星期数的相关性,建立了相应的电力负荷中期预测模型。并对预测结果进行了分析。算例表明,该算法具有运算速度快、精度较高的优点。     

Effects of sediment load on the abrasion of soil aggregate and hydraulic parameters in experimental overland flow

The breakdown of soil aggregates under rainfall and their abrasion in overland flow are important processes in water erosion due to the production of more fine and transportable particles and, the subsequent significant effect on the erosion intensity. Currently, little is known about the effects of sediment load on the soil aggregate abrasion and the relationship of this abrasion with some related hydraulic parameters. Here, the potential effects of sediment load on soil aggregate abrasion and hydraulic parameters in overland flow were investigated through a series of experiments in a 3.8-m-long hydraulic flume at the slope gradients of 8.7 and 26.8%, unit flow discharges from 2×10~(–3) to 6×10~(–3) m~2 s~(-1), and the sediment concentration from 0 to 110 kg m~(–3). All the aggregates from Ultisols developed Quaternary red clay, Central China. The results indicated that discharge had the most significant(P0.01) effect on the aggregates abrasion with the contributions of 58.76 and 60.34%, followed by sediment feed rate, with contributions of 39.66 and 34.12% at the slope gradients of 8.7 and 26.8%, respectively. The abrasion degree of aggregates was found to increase as a power function of the sediment concentration. Meanwhile, the flow depth, friction factor, and shear stress increased as a power function along with the increase of sediment concentration at different slope gradients and discharges. Reynolds number was obviously affected by sediment concentration and it decreased as sediment concentration increased. The ratio of the residual weight to the initial weight of soil aggregates(Wr/Wi) was found to increase as the linear function with an increasing flow depth(P=0.008) or Reynolds number(P=0.002) in the sediment-laden flow. The Wr/Wi values followed a power function decrease with increasing friction factor or shear stress in the sediment-laden flow, indicating that friction factor is the best hydraulic parameter for prediction of soil aggregate abrasion under different sediment load conditions. The information regarding the soil aggregate abrasion under various sediment load conditions can facilitate soil process-based erosion modeling.     

新疆日光温室前屋面的风载数值模拟分析

【目的】 对日光温室前屋面风载大小和变化趋势进行模拟,可辅助前屋面骨架结构优化设计和前屋面实际风载计算,为提前预测和防灾功能提供科学依据。【方法】 将日光温室墙体、保温被和骨架等结构简化,使用UG 软件对日光温室进行造型,将模型与空气进行布尔求差,得到整体模型,将整体模型导入到ANSYS ICEM中,进行网格划分,得到保温被4种工作状态薄膜风压。再通过Y向的9条曲线画出不同条件下风压变化对比曲线。【结果】 在无保温被和保温被全铺时,薄膜最南侧风压最高,约1.014×10⁵Pa,往北侧风压逐渐降低,脊高位置风压最小约1.010×10⁵Pa。由于最南侧风遇到薄膜阻碍,造成风压的升高,而北侧接近日光温室顶端,风速快,而风速快的位置风压小。在保温被全卷及半卷时,也是最南侧风压较最高,约1.014×10⁵Pa,往北有风压的降低,总体屋面风压变化比较小,约1.013×10⁵Pa。只是保温被半卷时,在保温被卷放位置会有风压的突变为1.012×10⁵Pa。【结论】 无保温被、保温被全铺、保温被全卷及保温被半卷4种情况南侧风压较大且相差不大,但越往北侧,保温被全卷或半卷会造成薄膜风压的升高,尤其是顶部的突然升高。保温被全铺是最佳防风方案。南侧风压高,南侧前屋面钢骨架拱形段的性能对日光温室结构稳定性和安全性至关重要,设计和建设时需要着重计算和核验。     

汽车变速器齿轮修形仿真分析

汽车变速器的关键部件齿轮因其加工和装配质量的影响,工作时容易引起振动噪声大及承载能力降低等问题,而齿轮修形是解决这些问题的有效方法,且成本较低。针对某款汽车变速器,利用Romax对齿轮进行修形分析。结果表明,修形后减小了齿轮的传动误差和最大接触应力,齿面载荷分布更加合理。有效改善了齿轮的传动性能,增加了齿轮寿命。     

副车架疲劳载荷分析方法

结合LMSTWR软件,详细介绍了基于混合路面的轮心位移反求法求取副车架载荷谱的方法。通过在某MPV上布置合适传感器,在试验场测得道路载荷谱信号。根据实测的数据,建立整车多体动力学模型。基于处理后的道路载荷谱与多体动力学模型进行虚拟迭代,并进行副车架载荷分解。结果表明,迭代仿真得到的信号与试验值吻合度较好。     

田东县气候特征及舒适性分析

选取田东县1954—2010年的气温、风、相对湿度、特殊天气等4个因子,对其气候特征及人体舒适性进行分析。结果表明,田东县雨水充沛,光照充足,气候宜人;全年综合舒适指数总体平均为次舒适以上,气候舒适度高,舒适期长,为适宜旅游观光之地。本研究可以为旅游部门合理开发旅游资源提供参考性建议,以进一步推进田东县旅游业的发展。     

四川盆地东北部一次暴雨天气过程简析

本文利用常规观测资料、自动站雨量资料、多普勒天气雷达和闪电定位资料,使用天气学分析方法,分析2019年9月9日夜间至10日白天发生在四川盆地东北部的一次暴雨天气过程。结果表明：本次过程是在受地面冷空气抬升触发,中低层低涡切变系统叠加配合,高空辐散抽吸共同作用下发生的。地形强迫抬升,雨带停滞少动且降水强度大,是造成此次过程降雨量大而集中的主要原因。     

定量泵负载敏感系统卸荷压力冲击抑制研究

定量泵负载敏感系统在快速卸荷时容易出现压力冲击现象,对系统的可靠性和寿命产生较大危害。三通压力补偿阀是定量泵负载敏感系统中关键的调压元件,本文以三通压力补偿阀为切入点,建立定量泵负载敏感系统功率键合图模型,基于键合图模型推导系统的状态方程,建立Matlab动态仿真模型,探讨系统卸荷压力冲击的抑制方案。基于系统仿真模型,首先对系统卸荷压力冲击的仿真与试验进行对比,验证了仿真模型的正确性;然后,针对三通压力补偿阀的系统压力腔阻尼、阀芯直径、Ls腔阻尼、阀口锥角等关键参数,对卸荷压力冲击影响规律进行仿真;最后,基于关键参数对卸荷压力冲击影响规律的分析,提出了一种"小阀芯、双阀口"型三通压力补偿阀结构优化方案,并对其卸压冲击抑制效果进行了仿真和试验。结果表明,该方案可以有效抑制卸荷压力冲击,优化后系统卸压冲击压差比原系统降低了89%,卸荷压力降低了20%,进一步实现了节能。     

Field measurement of the sheltering effect of vegetation on erodible land surfaces

Natural vegetation on erodible land surfaces, such as the loose sandy soils found in the southwestern United States and in Soviet Central Asia, absorbs part of the wind momentum flux (stress) and thus protects the erodible soil to a degree that depends on the geometry of plant distribution and profile. The sheltering effect of natural plants may be expressed as the ratio, R, of threshold friction velocity for the bare soil (determined in the laboratory or in specially prepared areas of bare soil in the field) to that for the naturally vegetated surface. We used new automated instrumentation to detect erosion thresholds in locations where erosion events are widely separated in time. Measured values of R were low for our most vegetated sites and nearer unity for the sparsely vegetated site.