河北省5个主要树种林分直径分布的研究

本试验根据100块标准地的实测资料,应用Weibull分布函数分析了河北省油松(人工林)、华北落叶松(人工林)、山杨、白桦和柞栎等5个主要树种的林分直径分布。用最大似然法则求解Weibull分布函数的参数。拟合结果:尺度参数b值基本上在3～10之间,形状参数c值均在1～3之间,参数的变动系数Cv(b)为17％～28％,Cv(c)为12％～17％.据此,5个树种的直径分布均应属于正偏的山状分布类型。且X~2检验结果表明,使用Weibull分布函数拟合以上树种的直径分布效果良好。     

Diameter distributions in Picea ables described by the Weibull model

The three‐parameter Weibull function met specified statistical standards for goodness of fit as a model for the diameter distribution of moderately thinned Norway spruce stands in Denmark. Weibull distributions estimated by percentile estimators fit the majority of 522 observed diameter distributions (material made available by the Danish Forest Experiment Station) at the 10% level of significance in the Chi‐square and Kolmogoroff‐Smirnow tests. The Weibull distribution was less suited to describe the diameter distribution in unthinned stands and heavily thinned stands. Weibull parameter predictions were developed and used in connection with a Danish yield table for Norway spruce on clay‐rich coastal soils. The use of the Weibull distribution to predict stem frequencies in different diameter classes before and after a specified thinning of stands is demonstrated.     

Fitting diameter distributions with a hand‐held,programmable calculator

Simple techniques are described and illustrated for fitting four common diameter distribution models: Beta, Gamma, Lognormal, and Weibull. A visual goodness of fit test is illustrated using typical plot data. Programs by the authors are available which allow all necessary computations to be easily performed on a hand‐held, programmable calculator.     

Modelling the emergence pattern of six summer annual weed grasses under no tillage systems in Argentina

Field trials were established in various growing seasons in four experimental sites with soyabeans or maize grown under no tillage systems. Seeds of Digitaria sanguinalis, Eleusine indica, Sorghum halepense, Setaria geniculata, Echinochloa colonum and Urochloa platyphylla were incorporated in surface soil, under the crop residues of the previous season, each autumn. Regular records of seedling emergence during the following spring and summer were used to model the pattern of each species as a function of the thermal time in the 2 cm upper layer of the soil profile. A Weibull function closely described ( r ² = 0.73–0.93) the relationship between thermal time and seedling emergence for all species in each site and year. The coefficient of determination for the model verification ranged from 0.71 to 0.98. Species may be grouped into three emergence time-span groups. Eleusine indica, U. platyphylla and E. colonum had a long-lasting emergence, requiring 940–1660 d°C (growing day degrees) to complete this process. Digitaria sanguinalis and S. halepense had an intermediate emergence time-span, completing this process in 540–1090 d°C. Setaria geniculata exhibited the shortest emergence time-span (290–660 d°C required for full emergence). Different hypotheses were tested in order to explain species model parameter differences in different sites and to establish the basis for more refined models with improved prediction capabilities.     

巴氏消毒及冷藏温度作用下副溶血弧菌菌株失活异质性的比较

温度是影响细菌生长与失活的关键因素,在食品生产中常用来控制致病微生物潜在的风险。但由于不同菌株间个体的差异,细菌在相同温度作用下呈现出不同的失活趋势,这种行为方式称为菌株的失活异质性,容易导致微生物风险控制的不确定性和变异性。比较了19株副溶血性弧菌(16株临床菌株和3株环境菌株)在巴氏消毒温度(65℃)及冷链温度(10℃)作用下的失活情况,并结合Weibull模型,拟合相应的失活参数(t_R值),探究了不同菌株间的失活异质性。在65℃处理条件下,19株副溶血性弧菌的t_R值介于22.62～67.23 s,VPC-1为耐热性最强菌株,而VPC-10为耐热性最弱菌株,热失活参数t_R值最适的概率分布为Normal (44.82, 12.27)。在10℃条件下,t_R值介于113.96～371.38 h,VPC-3为耐冷性最强菌株,VPC-2为耐冷性最弱菌株,冷失活参数t_R值最适的概率分布为Loglogistic (51.45,148.88,4.67)。结果表明,副溶血性弧菌的热失活和冷失活间没有显著的相关性,菌株的失活异质性广泛存在于副溶血性弧菌之中,仅基于单一菌株进行失活模型的拟合,很难描述其整体的失活趋势。同时,初步构建了菌株失活异质性的随机模型,并使用概率分布代替了传统的失活参数。     

Validation of predictive empirical weed emergence models of Abutilon theophrasti Medik based on intercontinental data

Good weed management relies on the proper timing of weed control practices in relation to weed emergence dynamics. Therefore, the development of models that predict the timing of emergence may help provide growers with tools to make better weed management decisions. The aim of this study was to validate and compare two previously published predictive empirical thermal time models of the emergence of Abutilon theophrasti growing in maize with data sets from the USA and Europe, and test the hypothesis that a robust and general weed emergence model can be developed for this species. Previously developed Weibull and Logistic models were validated against new data sets collected from 11 site-years, using four measures of validation. Our results indicated that predictions made with the Weibull model were more reliable than those made with the Logistic model. However, Weibull model results still contained appreciable biases that prevent its use as a general model of A. theophrasti emergence. Our findings highlight the need to develop more accurate models if the ultimate goal is to make more precise predictions of weed seedling emergence globally to provide growers with universally consistent tools to make better weed management decisions.     

延边地区天然赤松林直径分布的研究──延边地区天然赤松林研究之一

本文对吉林省延边地区天然赤松林（平均年龄为４０年）的直径分布进行了分析，认为随着林分密度的增大，天然赤松林的胸径分布表现出由正态分布型转向韦布（Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ）分布型，偏度由负偏趋于正偏，峭度逐渐变大的动态分布规律．可供合理经营等参考使用．     

基于Weibull函数不同干燥方式下的茯苓干燥特性

为缩短干燥时间,克服茯苓块干燥后表面龟裂、易于破碎的缺陷,改善干燥品质;将自然晾晒、普通热风干燥、气体射流冲击干燥、真空脉动干燥4种技术应用于茯苓块的干燥,研究了茯苓的干燥特性;利用Weibull函数对其干燥曲线进行拟合并分析干燥过程,结合尺度参数、形状参数计算茯苓块的水分有效扩散系数、干燥活化能,并与Fick第二定律进行比较;测定了不同干燥条件下的破碎率、浸出物质量分数;并基于能耗、尺度参数、破碎率、浸出物质量分数对3种人工干燥方式进行了综合评价。结果表明:1)茯苓块在4种干燥方式下均表现为降速干燥,但普通热风干燥、真空脉动干燥前期存在升速段;2)Weibull函数能够准确拟合不同干燥方式下的干燥曲线;尺度参数随着温度、风速的增加而减小;形状参数与干燥方式有关,普通热风、真空干燥的形状参数值均大于1,气体射流干燥的形状参数值均小于1;3)基于Weibull函数计算水分有效扩散系数、干燥活化能,可克服Fick第二定律只适用于降速干燥的缺陷;估算的水分扩散系数范围为3.90×10-9~20.40×10-9 m2/s;干燥活化能为29.45~40.09kJ/mol,且不同干燥方式间的活化能存在差异;4)不同干燥方式下茯苓块破碎率存在显著性差异(p0.05);真空脉动与自然晾晒的破碎率均低于5.00%;试验参数范围内,气体射流的温度、风速与破碎率无相关关系,破碎率均值为62.68%;普通热风干燥方式下,破碎率随温度的升高而增大;5)真空脉动干燥方式下浸出物质量分数最高,为4.54%~4.75%;综合评价结果表明茯苓块的干燥宜采用真空脉动干燥技术。该研究探索了不同干燥技术下茯苓块的干燥特性和品质,为选择合适的干燥工艺提供了理论依据。     

Weibull模型中未知参数的估计

韦布尔(Weibull)分布函数(y(t)=1-exp{-((t-a)/b)~c},t>a,b>0,c>0)自八十年代初期移植到植物病理学中以来,由于其可塑性大,适应性广,在植病流行、预测和损失估计研究中引起了广泛注意。本文着重探讨了韦布尔模型中参数估计的线性和非线性方法,并以一例用线性方法组配参数b,c。     

考虑冻融的粉质黏土统计损伤本构关系研究

【目的】研究冻融作用下土的物理力学性质的变化,构建一种同时考虑荷载效应和冻融循环的损伤模型,为预测冻土地基反复冻融作用下的沉降变形提供理论基础。【方法】以青藏铁路沿线常见的粉质黏土为研究对象,制备了20组同一目标含水量(16%)和干容重(1.30g/cm3)的重塑试样,开展了3种正压力(100,200和300kPa)下的直接剪切试验,剪切变形速率控制为0.8mm/min。以粉质黏土的抗剪强度数据为基础,采用3种常用的分布函数(正态分布、对数正态分布和Weibull分布),分析了粉质黏土的抗剪强度分布特征。之后基于Weibull概率密度函数和Lemaitre等效应力原理,推导出三维应力条件下冻土的本构关系;采用Drucker-Prager强度准则反映荷载所致土结构损伤,并选取冻融数次后弹性模量描述冻融循环所致结构损伤,最后提出了一种同时考虑冻融作用和荷载效应的损伤变量,并嵌入冻土损伤本构关系,构建了损伤模型。采用冻融试验数据和三轴剪切试验数据,验证该模型的合理性。【结果】相比于正态分布和对数正态分布,粉质黏土的强度数据更符合Weibull分布规律,曲线吻合程度和最大偏差均最小。验证试验结果表明,构建的损伤模型的计算结果与试验结果的相关系数均高于0.70,说明该模型能够较好地描述粉质黏土冻融数次后的应力应变特征。【结论】成功构建了一种同时考虑荷载效应和冻融作用的损伤模型,这为统计损伤本构关系的研究和有效的工程应用提供了参考依据。