气象因素对毛竹秆形生长变异的影响

在我国毛竹中心产区的调查分析结果表明 :毛竹的秆形生长同气象因素关系密切 ,在毛竹生长期内不同的具体生理过程 ,各种气象因子的影响程度不同 ,其中的某一或几个因子为主导性或限制性因子并同时综合作用于毛竹的生长发育。但是出笋成竹期和孕笋期的气候因子对毛竹的秆形生长量起决定作用 ,而其中降水因素的作用大于温度因素。此外 ,无论从不同产区 ,还是同一产区内不同地点的毛竹秆形生长变异同气象因子之间相关分析 ,均可知生长地有利的基本温、湿条件(常年的温、湿度条件 )是毛竹生长的前提条件。     

基于轮廓重建的渔船雷达MAP-MRF快速反演研究

渔船雷达是渔船导航系统的重要组成部分,在海上复杂气象条件下,具有不受能见度影响进行全天候观测的优势。从雷达信号向可判读图像信号的反演过程中,对雷达照射夹角间的缺失数据进行重建是反演过程中计算和时间花费最大的部分。依据渔船反演过程中的特性,将统计力学模型引入到雷达图层轮廓的重建计算当中,应用最大后验概率马尔可夫随机场框架实现了渔船雷达的快速雷达图像反演过程。文章成果对于减少反演时间,提高雷达刷新率,及时准确地发现海上强对流灾害目标具有重要的意义和实用价值。     

龙口市一次强对流天气过程分析

本文利用常规高空资料、地面实况资料和雷达资料,从天气形势、物理量场和雷达回波变化特征等方面对2020年5月23日发生在龙口市的一次冰雹天气过程进行了分析。结果表明:此次降雹过程主要是在冷涡横槽和地面气旋的共同影响下发生的;充足的水汽条件,上干冷下暖湿的不稳定层结条件以及低层辐合、高层辐散动力条件是强对流天气产生的基础。可充分利用冰雹天气在雷达反射率和VIL图上的明显特征来做临近的预报预警服务。     

江苏沿江地区一次雷暴大风天气的中尺度特征分析

利用常规气象资料、雷达及NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,对江苏沿江地区一次雷雨大风过程的天气形势、热动力因子及中尺度特征进行分析,研究此次雷暴大风天气的成因。结果表明:此次雷暴大风天气发生在副热带高压边缘,前倾槽、中低层切变线和地面辐合线是主要影响系统,冷暖空气交汇导致不稳定能量触发;大的CAPE值提供了充足的水汽与能量条件;高空辐散与低空辐合的配置为雷暴大风的形成和维持提供有利的动力条件;VIL值达到最大后快速减小对雷暴大风灾害的预警具有指示意义。     

高致病性禽流感与天气条件分析

利用全国气象观测资料、NCEP／NCAR日平均再分析数据资料集和我国高致病性禽流感疫情资料,分析高致病性禽流感发生的时空特征以及与天气条件的关系。结果表明,我国高致病性禽流感全年可以发生,疫情的分布范围广,大部分地区都有出现。发生和传播与环境气象条件有关,季节性明显,冬季和秋季为主要发病季节。冬季禽流感发生前高空500hPa以槽为主,冷空气活动频繁。发生日基本在高压系统的控制之下,地面流场呈辐散状,风速稳定少变。     

Population trends in northern spotted owls: Associations with climate in the Pacific Northwest

We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (λ) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, λ was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in λ accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls.     

2008年持续低温降雪冻雨对梁子湖流域鸟类的影响调查

2008年1月,梁子湖流域遭遇历时罕见的持续低温降雪冻雨极端天气,304km~2梁子湖冰冻封湖15 d。地面持续冰雪覆盖,导致鸟类生境结构破坏,生境资源不可利用,最终因长时间食物匮乏和冷害的双重影响出现严重灾害性死亡。涉及鸟类22科42种,流域内数量损失30万～40万只。     

AFLA-maize,a mechanistic model for Aspergillus flavus infection and aflatoxin B1 contamination in maize

A mechanistic weather-driven model was developed based on the infection cycle of Aspergillus flavus on maize to predict the risk of aflatoxin contamination in field on a daily basis from silk emergence to harvest; hourly data of temperature, relative humidity and rain were used as model input. The work was done in four steps: (i) development of the model prototype; (ii) collection of Italian field data on aflatoxin contamination in maize with related crop and weather data; (iii) development of a probability index to exceed the legal limit of 5 μg of aflatoxin B₁ per kg of unprocessed maize by combining model predictions and field data in a logistic regression; and (iv) validation with Italian data of the probability index and release of the predictive model, named AFLA-maize. Predictions of maize contamination above the threshold of 5 μg/kg in the data set used for parameterization of the regression equation were correct for 73% of field samples; 59% and 14%, respectively, were not contaminated and contaminated. In a second independent data set, 68% of samples were correctly predicted. The model AFLA-maize provides prediction of A. flavus infection and aflatoxin contamination along the growing season and at harvest. This information is useful to support decision-making for (i) crop management, (ii) harvest timing, (iii) maize lots cleaning and logistic, and (iv) maize sampling for aflatoxin analysis at consignment.     

冷锋云系的多普勒雷达反射率因子特征总结

[目的]总结冷锋云系的多普勒雷达反射率因子特征。[方法]从反射率因子特征上来研究冷锋云系,利用2002～2007年哈尔滨新一代天气雷达资料,总结了冷锋云系的反射率因子特征。[结果]冷锋所产生的云总体上说呈带状,但其间云体有间隙,且强度分布不均匀;多数移动快的冷锋为长而窄的回波带,移动缓慢的冷锋或弱冷锋,则呈宽广的片状或片絮状回波;面积大的冷锋云系通过测站基本都可以分析出径向速度由西北风转为西南风;随着月份的不同,反射率因子特征也有很大的变化。在冬季,冷锋云表现为层状云,反射率因子特征非常弱,一般面积较大,呈片状,但结构松散,回波间有间隙,其中夹杂着几块比较强的回波;在冷锋两侧易产生强度大的对流单体回波,一般会随着整体云带移动,移速、移向基本一致;干冷锋移过时,易局地产生强对流,以对流云为主,回波面积较小,一般从径向速度图中分析不出风向转变,但单体的强度特征明显,一般有＂三体散射＂、＂旁瓣＂、＂弱回波区＂特征,具有超级单体的特征。[结论]该研究为多普勒雷达在黑龙江省监测灾害天气的应用上起到了积极作用。     

气候资源开发利用与安徽省农业可持续发展

从气候资源对农业生产的重要性出发 ,根据安徽省气候资源的特点和开发利用现状 ,分析了安徽省农业可持续发展所面临的气候资源方面的问题 ,指出今后气候资源开发利用的主要途径 ,并提出了近期加强气候资源开发利用的几项措施