Improving cereal yield forecasts in Europe – The impact of weather extremes

The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system.     

花生黄曲霉生长预测模型的研究

通过对分离自花生的黄曲霉LYYSS03-3在不同温度(15-35℃)、不同相对湿度(水活度分别为0.5,0.7,0.9)下的菌落生长特性进行检测,采用Boltzmann和Logistic 模型对黄曲霉的生长曲线进行拟合,结果表明,在适宜温湿度阶段,花生黄曲霉的生长曲线更适合用Boltzmann模型拟合.     

基于高光谱特征参数的冬小麦氮营养指数估算

为了实现快速高精度获取冬小麦氮营养指数的高光谱监测技术，利用美国SVC HR-1024I型野外光谱辐射仪对2017-2019年关中地区的冬小麦进行遥感监测，获取“三边”参数、任意两波段光谱指数和植被指数，通过相关性分析和逐步回归分析方法筛选冬小麦氮营养指数的敏感光谱参数，结合偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)、随机森林算法(RFR)、支持向量机回归(SVR)和梯度增强回归(GBDT)建立冬小麦氮营养指数模型，并对模型估算精度进行验证。结果表明，从拔节期到灌浆期，各时期的氮营养指数与任意两波段光谱指数均呈极显著相关，其中拔节期氮营养指数与任意两波段光谱指数相关性均高于其他时期，且基于一阶导数光谱的归一化光谱指数和比值光谱指数与氮营养指数的相关系数最大，为0.66。拔节期基于梯度增强回归的冬小麦氮营养指数预测模型的决定系数(r²)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.96和0.05,模型验证的r²、RMSE和相对预测偏差(RPD)分别为0.95、0.12和2.12,模型预测精度最高。因此，拔节期基于梯度增强回归的冬小麦氮营养指数估算模型可用于冬小麦氮营养监测...     

基于SWAT模型的大安市降水入渗量变化的模拟研究

针对近年的研究热点,通过SWAT模型对半干旱、盐碱化严重的吉林省大安市进行降水入渗模拟。以2000、2004和2008年遥感影像解译得到的土地利用数据为基础,结合SWAT模型的模拟结果,讨论LUCC与降水入渗量的相关关系。2008年与2000年相比,难利用地的面积有所降低,旱地、草地等发生了大面积的增加,研究区内土地状况有所好转。通过SWAT模型运行得到的结果显示:2008年的平均降水入渗量为56.27 mm,比2000年的值高。利用降水入渗系数法进行计算,也得到了2008年的降水入渗量高于2000年的结果,这与SWAT模型模拟得到的结果有着相同的趋势,且平均降水入渗量的标准偏差为5.27,说明SWAT模型对于研究区有良好的适应性。同时,根据土地利用数据和SWAT模型模拟数据可以得知,LUCC对研究区的降水入渗量存在着一定的相关性。     

黄土坡面结皮对土壤水稳性团聚体的稳定性和可蚀性的影响

为了探析微地形下土壤受雨滴打击后产生的结皮类型及团聚体组成差异。通过人工模拟降雨,研究坡面不同位置的结皮土壤水稳性团聚体分布特征、稳定性以及土壤可蚀性的变化情况。结果表明：（1）土壤水稳性团聚体以大团聚体（粒径>0.25 mm）含量为指标,原状土、结构结皮、沉积结皮、过渡带结皮>0.25 mm粒级的水稳性团聚体分别占37.28%、43.58%、36.69%、40.34%;（2）以降雨历时5 min为例,原状土、结构结皮、沉积结皮、过渡带结皮的水稳性团聚体的破坏率分别为：51.49%、46.00%、62.76%、51.02%;（3）原状土、结构结皮、沉积结皮、过渡带结皮的水稳性团聚体的平均重量直径分别为：0.15、0.20、0.14、0.17 mm;（4）原状土、结构结皮、沉积结皮、过渡带结皮土壤可蚀性K值的大小分别为：0.223、0.200、0.229、0.205。微地形下产生结皮差异使得水稳性团聚体分布有所区别,因此土壤水稳性团聚体稳定性和可蚀性存在差异。     

A conceptual model of farmers' decision-making process for nitrogen fertilization and irrigation of durum wheat

With a 2 millions of tons production, France is the second country in the European Union to produce durum wheat. Durum wheat production requires high grain nitrogen concentration. Irrigation and nitrogen fertilization must be managed simultaneously to maximize grain yield and also avoid low protein concentration and environmental impacts. To help advisors and farmers to better manage together these two agricultural operations and to develop innovative managements, developing a biodecisional model is an interesting possibility. However, knowledge is still missing on how farmers already managed these operations and how these two operations are linked. We developed the conceptual model for the decision part of this computer model. We performed a survey of 28 farmers conducted over the five French production areas investigating a diversity of growing conditions to identify the set of possible constraints and farmers' decision rules. To analyze the survey, we first used a general inductive approach on individual cases and then built a conceptual model of the decision with a bottom-up approach. We identified four decision sequences for fertilization (N splitting, choice of N fertilizer, rate of application, fertilization triggering) and five for irrigation (irrigation period, anticipated number of irrigation cycles, irrigation cycles organization, irrigation triggering and irrigation cycle specificities). For each operation, the first three decision sequences refer to strategic decisions. The other decision sequences refer to tactical decisions. Coupling this model with a crop model could provide guidelines for managing durum wheat in the current climatic and economic changing context.     

林地水土保持功能持续提高的机制及对策

通过对不同林地水土保持功能分析得出,其发展过程可分为成长期、成熟期和减退期,并定义成熟期为可持续发展期。分析了影响水土保持功能持续提高的环境分配系数r和环境利用系数k,认为r是林地中光、水、肥分配的参数,k为光、水、肥利用的参数。林地水土保持功能的持续提高,应通过调整r和k,即调控林地的树种组成、林分层次和林分密度,形成合理的林分结构,保持成熟期的持续发展。并在此基础上提出了林地水土保持功能持续提高的相应对策。     

基于B-S模型的环保项目投资评价

以ABC公司环保产品开发为例,针对传统项目投资评价在环保项目上的缺点,分析了将实物期权理论运用到环保项目投资评价中的可行性,并运用B-S模型进行定量分析,以期为环保项目投资提供一个新的思路,同时也使环保项目决策变得更加合理。     

Polymorphic mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) in a coastal riverscape: size class assemblages,distribution, and habitat associations

We compared the assemblage structure, spatial distributions, and habitat associations of mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) morphotypes and size classes. We hypothesised that morphotypes would have different spatial distributions and would be associated with different habitat features based on feeding behaviour and diet. Spatially continuous sampling was conducted over a broad extent (29 km) in the Calawah River, WA (USA). Whitefish were enumerated via snorkelling in three size classes: small (10–29 cm), medium (30–49 cm), and large (≥50 cm). We identified morphotypes based on head and snout morphology: a pinocchio form that had an elongated snout and a normal form with a blunted snout. Large size classes of both morphotypes were distributed downstream of small and medium size classes, and normal whitefish were distributed downstream of pinocchio whitefish. Ordination of whitefish assemblages with nonmetric multidimensional scaling revealed that normal whitefish size classes were associated with higher gradient and depth, whereas pinocchio whitefish size classes were positively associated with pool area, distance upstream, and depth. Reach‐scale generalised additive models indicated that normal whitefish relative density was associated with larger substrate size in downstream reaches (R² = 0.64), and pinocchio whitefish were associated with greater stream depth in the reaches farther upstream (R² = 0.87). These results suggest broad‐scale spatial segregation (1–10 km), particularly between larger and more phenotypically extreme individuals. These results provide the first perspective on spatial distributions and habitat relationships of polymorphic mountain whitefish.     

温度和湿度对土壤中噁唑酰草胺降解的影响

噁唑酰草胺是一种芳氧苯氧丙酸酯类除草剂,近年来在我国使用面积快速上升。本文建立了土壤中噁唑酰草胺的快速灵敏检测方法,测定了土壤温度和湿度对土壤中噁唑酰草胺降解的影响。研究结果表明建立的土壤中噁唑酰草胺的高效液相色谱检测方法,最低定量限(LOQ)为4.00×10~(-3)μg/kg,最低检测限LOD为1.20×10~(-3)μg/kg。土壤温度为5、15、25和35℃时,土壤中10 mg/kg的噁唑酰草胺半衰期分别为16.8、9.9、3.5和0.9 d;土壤湿度为40%和80%时,土壤中噁唑酰草胺的半衰期分别为3.6和4.3 d。与土壤湿度相比,土壤温度对土壤中噁唑酰草胺降解的影响更大。