贵州省退耕还林与农村经济发展研究

通过对贵州省贞丰、桐梓、锦屏等若干县市林业生态建设监理、检查、造林实绩核查等工作的实践和研究，认为退耕还林工程与农村经济发展相结合，目前应加强以下工作：选择林业主导产业；林产业时间、空间的合理布局；树种、林种的结构优化；林业体制创新；实施相关配套工程。     

Assessing Knowledge Production for Agrosilvopastoral Systems in South America

In recent decades agroforestry has undergone significant development in Latin America. South America generates the most scientific research on the topic in the region. We conducted a comprehensive review and analysis of knowledge production for South American agroforestry that includes livestock grazing, known as agrosilvopastoralism (AS), examining how different sociopolitical factors such as sources of funding, institutional priorities, and international cooperation can bias the direction and objectives of scientific research. We assessed the major attributes of scientific publications on the topic (25 articles per country; overall n = 210) and the potential factors underlying the processes of research and development in the region. The tree component was the most studied, while the livestock component received less attention. Studies were mainly focused on the production of goods and services (monetary or nonmonetary approaches), except in Brazil, where conservation was the major study objective. Stakeholders were involved in more than half of the studies (60%), and they were mostly ranchers and local producers. More than half (70%) of the studies offered recommendations based on their results, and such recommendations were mostly concerned with the management of agrosilvopastoral system components. In general, studies were led just as often by local as foreign first authors and coauthored by more than three people as part of interinstitutional working groups. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and Chile had more frequent cooperation among institutions and countries but mainly used their own funding. In contrast, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru had almost 100% of their studies supported by foreign countries (North America and Europe). Countries with greater internal funding of research generated more long-term studies. Besides this, two clear trends were detected: 1) conservation and social aspects were mainly supported by sources from external countries led by foreign principal investigators, and 2) production issues were supported from sources within countries and supported high levels of cooperation among institutions.     

A stochastic model for simulation of the economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus infection in a dairy herd

A dynamic, stochastic model simulating the technical and economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infections for a dairy cattle herd for use on a personal computer was developed. The production and state changes of the herd were simulated by state changes of the individual cows and heifers. All discrete events at the cow level were triggered stochastically. Each cow and heifer was characterized by state variables such as stage of lactation, parity, oestrous status, decision for culling, milk production potential, and immune status for BVDV. The model was controlled by 170 decision variables describing biologic and management variables including 21 decision variables describing the effect of BVDV infection on the production of the individual animal. Two markedly different scenarios were simulated to demonstrate the behaviour of the developed model and the potentials of the applied modelling principle. The validation problem in relation to the model was discussed. A comparison between real and simulated data using data from a published case report was shown to illustrate how user acceptance can be obtained.     

甘南生态经济建设支撑体系研究(三)--生态产业的选择与培育

生态产业的选择与培育是甘南生态经济建设的关键。通过分析以生态产业替代传统的生态破坏型产业来保证甘南区域可持续发展的背景和意义，提出了生态产业选择的原则，构建了甘南生态产业体系，并对该产业体系整体功能发挥和各自产业的效益回收所需的保障机制作了深入研究。     

蚕茧价格、蚕种饲养量与蚕药用量关系的格兰杰因果检验

研究蚕桑产业经济中蚕茧价格(CAP)、蚕种饲养量(简称发种量,SSQ)、蚕药用量(SMQ)3个变量之间的关系,有助于科学预测蚕桑产业经济的发展变化规律。选取1991-2009年江苏省海安县蚕桑生产的年度数据,应用格兰杰因果关系检验(Granger causality test)方法,对上述3个变量进行平稳性检验、变量的一阶差分与单位根检验和格兰杰因果关系检验。结果表明,蚕茧价格与发种量、发种量与蚕药用量之间存在格兰杰因果关系,蚕茧价格与蚕药用量之间不存在格兰杰因果关系,即:蚕茧价格增长能引起发种量的增加,但发种量增加却不是蚕茧价格增长的原因,蚕茧价格对发种量的影响滞后期为2年,到第3年影响程度已逐渐弱化;发种量增加能引起蚕药用量的增加,但影响滞后期只有1年,超过1年后的影响不显著;蚕茧价格与蚕药用量之间从实际趋势看有一定的关联性,但相互之间的影响关系不是直接的,难以建立函数关系。研究结果与蚕桑产业发展变化的实际情况基本相符,认为格兰杰因果关系检验方法可应用于蚕桑产业经济相关因素的发展变化规律研究。     

城市化进程中失地农民的利益保障问题

城市化进程中，农村集体土地大量地被征用，大量农民成为失地农民。失地农民为我国城市化发展做出了巨大贡献，但他们的利益却没有得到根本的保障。为此，从当前失地农民的利益损失入手，对造成其利益损失的原因进行了探讨，最后提出了应该从短期和长期两方面出发，采取积极有效的措施，妥善解决失地农民的利益保障问题。     

做大做强特色产业加快富民强县步伐——盱眙县龙虾产业带动县域经济发展的实践与借鉴

盱眙县发掘资源优势，把龙虾作为特色产业，举办中国龙虾节，带动了一系列相关产业的发展，改变了当地的农业产业结构和就业结构，增加了就业和收入，增强了地方经济实力；并通过特色产业的品牌效应，带动了旅游等服务业的发展，吸引了外来投资，加速了工业化进程。通过总结盱眙县的经济发展实践，为落后地区的区域经济发展提供了参考和借鉴。     

层次分析法在畜牧业循环经济综合评价中的应用

对畜牧业实行循环经济的综合评价是衡量畜牧业可持续发展程度的重要措施。采用层次分析法的原理建立畜牧业循环经济综合评价的数学模型,对层次分析法的具体流程进行详细描述,同时对层次分析法存在的一些问题进行总结。通过相应的实例,证明层次分析法在畜牧业循环经济综合评价中应用的可行性,对畜牧业相关部门在制定政策时能起到决策支持的作用。     

循环经济理念下绿色饲料产业的机遇和挑战

传统经济对工业进步的推动作用不可小觑,但这种传统的经济理念在改变人们生活方式的同时也带来了资源的破坏.这种环境和经济发展不平衡的现象影响了未来人类的生存环境与经济发展方式.对此,建立循环经济理念,以可持续的资源保护方式推动产业发展,走资源循环路线非常重要.本文从循环经济的理论基础着手,探讨了循环经济与绿色饲料产业之间的...     

面向循环经济的畜禽养殖发展思路

本文阐述了循环经济的特征及其运行模式，分析了传统畜禽养殖业的污染现状及其原因，讨论了面向循环经济的畜禽养殖业应遵循的三大原则，即减量化、再利用和资源化，对畜禽养殖技术、废物利用技术进行了探讨，提出畜禽养殖业应该走循环经济的发展模式，通过研制生态饲料及废物综合利用，达到畜禽粪便的减量化、资源化和无害化。