This paper presents a scenario-based analysis of the impacts of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform for upland agriculture using a Welsh case-study. Specifically the paper examines the impacts of the introduction of the single-farm payment (SFP), the modulation of direct payments under Pillar I of the CAP and the increase in agri-environment payments under Pillar II. Three enterprises are examined, upland sheep rearing with lamb finishing, spring- and autumn-calving suckler-cattle with calf rearing. These enterprises are modelled under conditions in 2002/3, 2004/5 and for the reformed CAP in 2005/6. To support this analysis a livestock system model (LSM) was implemented. The model assesses alternative management regimen using a flexible state-transition approach. This simplifies the realisation and parameterisation of potentially complex management regimen. The model tracks fodder requirements to achieve targets based on defined diets. The LSM underpins whole-farm analyses of stocking-rates, labour and other resource requirements and net-farm income. From the case study the paper concludes that the impacts of the introduction of the CAP reform on the financial performance of the systems are small but negative (a net reduction of around 5% in support). The larger reduction in direct payments (15–18%) is partially offset by agri-environment measures. The paper concludes that while SFP encourages a more market-oriented outlook, the adaptive capacity within systems as they stand is very limited. There are a range of possible adaptation strategies, but for the uplands the extensification of cattle systems by reducing stock numbers and cutting back on labour seems most probable. 相似文献
There is a widespread consensus about the importance of sustainable agriculture. In France, the Farming Orientation Law of July 1999 has set down a precise procedure for the implementation of sustainable agriculture: the contrat territorial d’exploitation – or territorial farm contract (TFC). This paper aims to analyse the TFC effectiveness. An analysis has been made of the TFCs signed in the Midi-Pyrenees Region in south-western France, using statistical analysis and qualitative surveys of a sample of farms. The results show that the most valuable effects have been mainly economic. Effects regarding social and environmental aspects were very limited. But from the point of view of an integrated approach, indirect effects of TFCs can be observed on social and environmental aspects. These results are explained, on the one hand, by farmers’ motivations guided by economic objectives, and on the other hand, by the dominance of professional farming organisations in the implementation of TFC’s procedure. Given these results, two ways of improving the elaboration procedure for TFCs are proposed. Firstly, technical improvements can be made to the diagnostic assessment of farms, and to the choice of actions addressed by the contract. Secondly, organisational improvements can be applied to TFCs elaboration and implementation process, in order to adopt a participatory approach which would involve all rural stakeholders. 相似文献
It is assumed that Agent-Based Modeling is a useful technique for water management issues. In particular, it may provide a suitable framework for representing irrigated systems. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate its potential for a specific use: research on irrigated systems’ viability in the Senegal River Valley. The main assumption to be verified is that Multi-Agent Systems constitute a suitable architecture to study theoretically irrigated systems’ viability using simulations. By using Multi-Agent Systems, virtual irrigated systems can be designed that might then be used as virtual laboratories. These virtual labs constitute an alternative when real labs cannot exist for some reason.
In this paper we report on experiments we have conducted using such virtual labs for exploring an Agent-Based Model through the simulation of scenarios. A scenario is defined as a triplet: an environment, a set of individual rules, a set of collective rules. It is evaluated according to the longevity of the irrigated system. An index is defined, based on the ratio of long-enduring simulations among a set of repetitions of a given scenario. Even if simulation results display significant diversity for a given scenario due to random factors in the processes simulated, the ratio of long-enduring simulations is repeatable. This entails to explore the overall behavior of the virtual irrigated system and to build theories concerning the viability of Senegalese irrigated systems. An example is given showing the need for strong coherence for a given environment among individual rules and collective rules. 相似文献
As a response to inadequacy in canal water supplies, farmers in Pakistan have invested in private tubewells to control irrigation water resources. Also, they participate in surface water and groundwater markets that take place within tertiary units of the irrigation system.The present paper describes the functioning and organization of these water markets, using information collected in sample watercourses of the Fordwah Branch irrigation system, South-Punjab, Pakistan. The variability in type and intensity of water markets is investigated with regard to access to water resources and farm production strategies and constraints. 相似文献
Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions make up a significant part of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. There is an urgent need to identify new approaches to the mitigation of these emissions with emerging technology. In this short review four approaches to precision managements of agricultural systems are described based on examples of work being undertaken in the UK and New Zealand. They offer the opportunity for N2O mitigation without any reduction in productivity. These approaches depend upon new sensor technology, modeling and spatial information with which to make management decisions and interventions that can both improve agricultural productivity and environmental protection. 相似文献