Durum wheat quality prediction in Mediterranean environments: From local to regional scale

Durum wheat is one of the most important agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area. In addition to yield, grain quality is very important in wheat markets because of the demand for high-quality end products such as pasta, couscous and bulgur wheat. Grain quality is directly affected by several agronomic and environmental factors. Our objective is to determine the general principles underlying how, in Mediterranean environments, grain protein content (GPC) is affected by these factors and provide a system model with high predictive ability. We initially evaluated the capability of the Delphi system to simulate GPC in the major Italian supply basins (Basilicata, Capitanata, Marche, Tuscany) for 9 years (1999–2007) a month ahead of harvesting and we then analyzed relations between Delphi system errors and selected environmental variables during flowering and grain filling stages. The results were evaluated on the basis of regression with observed GPC, while errors were calculated performing a linear correlation analysis with environmental variables. The model showed a high capability to reproduce the inter-annual variability, with important year to year differences, with better performance in the southern study areas (Basilicata and Capitanata). In this study the highest overestimation occurred in conjunction with the year (2004) characterized by the lowest quality in terms of GPC, lowest average temperature in May and highest yield production for the whole study period.     

＂Wutongyi＂ cultivation techniqne of single late rice

为了稳定粮食种植面积,增加农民经济收入,在浙江省莲都区雅溪镇单季晚稻示范推广＂五统一＂栽培模式,平均每667 m2产量达619.8 kg,比原有的栽培技术节本增收792.7元。该文总结了雅溪镇示范推广＂五统一＂栽培模式的主要做法。     

浅析西藏花卉产业的发展现状及前景

论述了西藏目前花卉生产的现状,存在的主要问题及可行性的解决方案,并对花卉产业今后的发展作出可行性预测。     

信息技术在森林病虫害测报中的应用现状

概述了信息技术的发展，国内外对森林病虫害的测报；介绍了国内外信息技术在森林病虫害测报中的应用现状以及“3S”技术在森林病虫害测报中的应用。指出，在未来的森林病虫害防治中，信息技术将上升到更加重要的地位。     

黄脊竹蝗集中产卵地的识别与测报方法研究

在测定黄脊竹蝗产卵量的基础上，观察黄脊竹蝗的迁飞落脚交尾地、鸟啄卵块留下的痕迹、立竹下方枝盘竹叶被害症状等产卵地的直观识别特征，可快速准确识别黄脊竹蝗集中产卵地。根据黄脊竹蝗造成的立竹下方枝盘竹叶被害程度制定了卵粒密度查定表，可测报集中产卵地卵粒密度和次年跳蝻发生面积、危害程度；根据集中产卵地上跳蝻先喜取食立竹顶梢竹叶造成的危害程度制定了立竹上已有跳蝻密度查定表，可测报跳蝻发生面积与危害程度。     

Load Forecasting Based on BP ANN for Economical Operation of Electric Boiler with Heat Reservoir Under Time-sharing price

Along with the generalization of DSM and time-sharing price system, the use of electric boiler with heat reservoir becomes more and more extensive. Load forecasting of heat supply system is an important base in the study of economical operation of electric boiler with heat reservoir under time-sharing price. The BP ANN modeling of the load forecasting for a 1200 kW electric boiler is discussed. The result of hourly heat load forecasting accords well with the real heat load.     

Local Nonlinear Forecasting of Short-term Power Load Forecasting

The nearest points in phase space are determined by Euclid distance in chaotic local prediction. The prediction accuracy depends on quality of the nearest points. But the shortest distance does not imply better forecasting effect. While false nearest neighboring point or high embedding dimensions appear evolvement track of some nearest neighboring point should be apart from prediction point. Because it is difficult for Euclid distance to reflect the correlation degree between the nearest points and prediction point. So the idea of combining Euclid distance with correlation degree is put forward. The method is applied to short-term electrical load forecasting. The result of load series forecasting by the presented method is more effective to improve prediction accuracy.     

种植业机械化程度与劳动力需求的关系模型

该文提出并探讨了种植业机械化程度与劳动力需求关系问题。其目的旨在发展完善农业机械化理论,为科学估算种植业劳动力数量和农村剩余劳动力数量提供理论参考。该文首先分析指出了用同型号的机组替代种植业劳动力具有线性替代关系,指出了机械化程度具有可分性,并对其进行了证明。在此基础上,建立了种植业机械化程度与劳动力需求关系模型,利用该模型不仅能够计算某一地区目前种植业劳动力需求数量,而且通过对未来各种作物机械化程度和播种面积的预测,也可计算出未来各时刻的种植业劳动力需求数量。最后进行了示例计算。     

混沌理论与BP网络融合的稻瘟病预测模型

为了能更有效地预测稻瘟病的发生,将混沌理论（G-P算法）与BP人工神经网络融合建立了稻瘟病预测模型,并运用QPSO算法优化BP神经网络,避免了BP算法易陷入局部极小值的缺陷。运用G-P算法对云南省凤庆县历年稻瘟病发病情况的历史数据进行了研究。研究发现最小嵌入空间维及K熵都为正数,故稻瘟病的发生具有一定的混沌特性,从而确定了模型输入层的个数。应用该模型对2001－2009年稻瘟病发生程度进行预测,并与其他预测模型进行比较。结果表明：该模型预测的准确率和收敛速度明显高于其他预测模型,且预测结果有效可行,为解决     

南方水稻黑条矮缩病对水稻产量损失及测报因子的初步研究

南方水稻黑条矮缩病是近年来在我国南方稻区新发生的一种重要病毒性病害.本文通过测定水稻品种‘T优272'上该病不同发病程度所对应的产量损失,分别建立了以病丛率、病株率与产量损失率之间的线性回归方程y=1.0270x1-1.363 4(R=0.999 6)、y=1.050 9x2-0.450 8(R=0.999 2).依据回归方程及南方稻区水稻生产实际情况,南方水稻黑条矮缩病在中稻上经济允许水平与成灾水平因子是病丛率4.79％与30.54％或病株率3.81％与28.98％,晚稻上经济允许水平与成灾水平因子分别是病丛率5.06％与30.54％或病株率4.08％与28.98％,中晚稻的绝收水平因子是病丛率79.22％或病株率76.55％.