Effects of temperature and wetness duration on conidial infection, latent period and asexual sporulation of Pyrenopeziza brassicae on leaves of oilseed rape

Experiments in controlled environments were carried out to determine the effects of temperature and leaf wetness duration on infection of oilseed rape leaves by conidia of the light leaf spot pathogen, Pyrenopeziza brassicae . Visible spore pustules developed on leaves of cv. Bristol inoculated with P. brassicae conidia at temperatures from 4 to 20°C, but not at 24°C; spore pustules developed when the leaf wetness duration after inoculation was longer than or equal to approximately 6 h at 12–20°C, 10 h at 8°C, 16 h at 6°C or 24 h at 4°C. On leaves of cvs. Capricorn or Cobra, light leaf spot symptoms developed at 8 and 16°C when the leaf wetness duration after inoculation was greater than 3 or 24 h, respectively. The latent period (the time period from inoculation to first spore pustules) of P. brassicae on cv. Bristol was, on average, approximately 10 days at 16°C when leaf wetness duration was 24 h, and increased to approximately 12 days as temperature increased to 20°C and to 26 days as temperature decreased to 4°C. At 8°C, an increase in leaf wetness duration from 10 to 72 h decreased the latent period from approximately 25 to 16 days; at 6°C, an increase in leaf wetness duration from 16 to 72 h decreased the latent period from approximately 23 to 17 days. The numbers of conidia produced were greatest at 12–16°C, and decreased as temperature decreased to 8°C or increased to 20°C. At temperatures from 8 to 20°C, an increase in leaf wetness duration from 6 to 24 h increased the production of conidia. There were linear relationships between the number of conidia produced on a leaf and the proportion of the leaf area covered by 'lesions' (both log₁₀-transformed) at different temperatures.     

Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, recruitment in the Bering Sea and north-east Pacific Ocean, II: relationships to environmental variables and implications for forecasting

Previous studies have shown that Pacific herring populations in the Bering Sea and north-east Pacific Ocean can be grouped based on similar recruitment time series. The scale of these groups suggests large-scale influence on recruitment fluctuations from the environment. Recruitment time series from 14 populations were analysed to determine links to various environmental variables and to develop recruitment forecasting models using a Ricker-type environmentally dependent spawner–recruit model. The environmental variables used for this investigation included monthly time series of the following: southern oscillation index, North Pacific pressure index, sea surface temperatures, air temperatures, coastal upwelling indices, Bering Sea wind, Bering Sea ice cover, and Bering Sea bottom temperatures. Exploratory correlation analysis was used for focusing the time period examined for each environmental variable. Candidate models for forecasting herring recruitment were selected by the ordinary and recent cross-validation prediction errors. Results indicated that forecasting models using air and sea surface temperature data lagged to the year of spawning generally produced the best forecasting models. Multiple environmental variables showed marked improvements in prediction over single-environmental-variable models.     

森林火险中长期预测预报研究进展

概述了我国和美国、加拿大的森林火险中长期预测预报的理论和方法。国内研究大多建立在对历史火灾资料与气象资料进行统计分析研究的基础上, 预测结果多是定性的、间断性的。美国和加拿大则依托成熟的全国性森林火险等级系统, 结合气象局的中长期降水和温度预报, 给出各火险指数实时的一周尺度预报及每周1次的16周尺度的季节性预报。我国今后应加强森林火险的中长期预测预报研究, 要由单纯定性分析转向定量化研究, 由一般数理统计模型转向具有明显物理意义的数学物理模型。     

Weather-Centric Rangeland Revegetation Planning

Invasive annual weeds negatively impact ecosystem services and pose a major conservation threat on semiarid rangelands throughout the western United States. Rehabilitation of these rangelands is challenging due to interannual climate and subseasonal weather variability that impacts seed germination, seedling survival and establishment, annual weed dynamics, wildfire frequency, and soil stability. Rehabilitation and restoration outcomes could be improved by adopting a weather-centric approach that uses the full spectrum of available site-specific weather information from historical observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and climate-change projections. Climate data can be used retrospectively to interpret success or failure of past seedings by describing seasonal and longer-term patterns of environmental variability subsequent to planting. A more detailed evaluation of weather impacts on site conditions may yield more flexible adaptive-management strategies for rangeland restoration and rehabilitation, as well as provide estimates of transition probabilities between desirable and undesirable vegetation states. Skillful seasonal climate forecasts could greatly improve the cost efficiency of management treatments by limiting revegetation activities to time periods where forecasts suggest higher probabilities of successful seedling establishment. Climate-change projections are key to the application of current environmental models for development of mitigation and adaptation strategies and for management practices that require a multidecadal planning horizon. Adoption of new weather technology will require collaboration between land managers and revegetation specialists and modifications to the way we currently plan and conduct rangeland rehabilitation and restoration in the Intermountain West.     

应用性诱剂防治甘蔗螟虫

对甘蔗螟虫的为害特点和防治现状以及性诱剂的特点和应用现状进行了概述。为了有效防治甘蔗螟虫,利用性诱剂进行预测预报,指导适时防治具有重要意义。     

气象行业标准《小麦干热风灾害等级》在滨州市预报服务中的应用

为检验气象行业标准《小麦干热风灾害等级》在预报服务中的应用效果,以惠民县为例,利用2004—2017年惠民基准站的气象要素资料对干热风发生情况及其对小麦千粒重的影响进行统计分析,并对标准正式实施前后的小麦产量进行对比。结果表明,滨州市冬小麦几乎每年都会受到干热风灾害不同程度的影响,干热风以高温低湿型为主,雨后青枯型出现相对较少;轻干热风对小麦千粒重的影响不大,造成小麦千粒重差异显著的原因是雨后青枯型干热风,应重视此类型干热风的预报服务;标准的应用对预报服务工作具有较好的指导作用,对减小干热风对小麦产量的影响也起到了积极的作用。     

桑蛀虫性信息素研究

采用大田性诱测定及触角电位测定技术,从八种合成样品中筛选出反3,顺13-十八碳双烯醇-1乙酸酯,对桑蛀虫雄蛾具有明显的生物活性和触角电位响应,这一结构通过雌成虫性腺体漂洗液的气相层析而得到确证。触角毛测定结果表明,雄成虫对性信息素的感受主要是通过其触角上的毛形感器接受并作出的反应,通常在0.01μg就能引起敏感反应,且这种反应是专一的。性诱测报试验结果表明,性诱蛾量高峰日与全代发蛾50％高峰期之间的差异不显著。因此,性诱蛾量高峰日可作为蛾高峰期的指标发布虫情预报。     

作物产量分类预报模型

本文把主成份分析方法应用在最优分割预报方法中,用主成份值作为最优分割方法中的分割因子,并在此基础上,建立了作物产量的最优分割预报模型。     

中国关税及进口预测软件系统的总体设计与实现

设计了中国关税与进口额预测软件系统，它具有关税及进口量的年度预测，月度高频预测，关税调控效果分析和高低频模型结合等５个主要功能，旨在为有关管理部门提供定量决策支持，认为：专用的预测决策支持系统设计首先要保证重要功能；适用模型和计算方法须由设计者明确，给用户的选择应集中外生可调控变量；软件本身应具备对数据维护方式的适应能力。