利用OWA和电路模型优化黄河流域甘肃段生态安全格局

从生态系统服务视角出发优化生态安全格局,对于维护区域生态安全格局,确保经济社会稳定发展意义重大,但现有研究缺乏对多种生态系统服务之间权衡情景下生态系统状况的认知。该研究以黄河流域甘肃段为研究单元,在测度2019年食物供给、碳固定、产水量、土壤保持及生境质量5种典型生态系统服务的基础上,利用有序加权平均（Ordered Weighted Averaging,OWA）模型识别出生态系统服务权衡度最高的优先保护区作为生态源地,利用最小累积阻力模型和电路模型识别生态廊道和战略点区域,进行生态安全格局构建与优化。结果表明：黄河流域甘肃段生态源地斑块共计169个,总面积27 460.56 km2,约占研究区总面积的19.2%。5种生态系统服务之间在全流域尺度下呈现出协同关系,甘南高原、陇中、陇东黄土高原由于受地形气候和植被覆盖以及人类活动的影响,生态系统服务差异显著。利用电路模型提取得到441条生态廊道,总体呈网状分布,贯穿东西,识别出生态节点49个。提出构建\     

基于VG-PENG收缩特征曲线与收缩各向异性的裂隙率估算模型

为量化农田裂隙发育程度,考虑脱湿过程中土壤孔隙在基质域、沉降域和裂隙域间转化,该研究提出基于土壤收缩特征和收缩各向异性的裂隙体积比率(裂隙率)关于含水率的预测模型.该模型包括3个子模型:改进VG型式的基质域收缩特征VG-PENG模型,描述收缩各向异性的几何因子Logistic模型,基于上述VG-PENG收缩特征模型和几...     

巴氏杀菌乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长预测模型构建

巴氏杀菌乳中金黄色葡萄球菌污染可能会产生肠毒素,对人体健康造成危害。分别监测在4、10、16、20、24、28℃储藏条件下金黄色葡萄球菌在巴氏杀菌乳中的生长数据,采用Modified Gompertz模型、Logistic模型、Huang模型和Baranyi模型构建金黄色葡萄球菌动力学一级模型,采用平方根模型和Arrhenius模型建立二级模型以描述温度与相对最大生长速率(μ_max)的关系。结果显示,各温度下Modified Gompertz模型的拟合度更优,决定系数(R²)>0.98,均方根误差(RMSE)<4.6,为最合适的一级模型。二级模型中,Arrhenius模型的拟合度更优(R²=0.99,RMSE=0.60)。相较于平方根模型,外部验证显示Arrhenius模型的精确度因子(A_f)和偏差因子(B_f)分别为1.39和0.87,较接近于1,说明预测效果更好。研究结果可为巴氏杀菌乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的风险评估提供数据基础,为乳品货架安全期预测提供科学依据。     

基于广义混合效应模型的云冷杉林天然更新计数方法研究

天然更新是森林恢复较好的办法,对未来林分结构和生物多样性具有深远的影响。更新模型能够模拟天然更新的现实和未来状况,为森林经营者提供准确的森林计划。以吉林省汪清林业局2013年设置的12块云冷杉针阔混交林为例,选择泊松和负二项分布形式,考虑样地间的随机效应,构建基于林分因子的云冷杉针阔混交林天然更新模型。结果表明：各个树种对林分因子的反应不一,白桦更新株数与林分每公顷株数和平均直径均呈负相关;红松和水曲柳更新株数不受各个林分因子的影响,更新株数是随机的;冷杉更新株数与林分每公顷断面积呈负相关;色木槭和云杉更新株数均与林分平均直径呈负相关。在考虑样地的随机截距效应后,模型的模拟效果显著提高。在构建天然更新模型时,林分密度是十分重要的因子,如果要人工促进天然更新,就要科学合理的采取经营措施,以确保合理的林分密度。另外样地间的差异是不容忽略的因素,需要利用混合效应模型方法来降低预测误差。     

新冠肺炎疫情与猪肉价格波动初探

基于2020年3月-2020年10月猪肉价格及新冠肺炎疫情指数,借助VAR模型,定量研究新冠肺炎疫情对于猪肉价格的影响。研究结果表明:新冠肺炎疫情对猪肉价格存在影响,促使猪肉价格上涨,在此基础上文章提出相应措施。     

干旱胁迫对3种冷季型草坪草光谱反射率及生理特征的影响

为探讨高光谱分析技术在草坪草水分监测上的应用,以草地早熟禾、高羊茅、多年生黑麦草为试验材料,测定了干旱胁迫下3种冷季型草坪草生理指标及光谱反射率。结果表明:随着干旱胁迫程度的加深,供试草坪草叶片相对含水量和叶绿素含量显著下降(P0.05),丙二醛含量、脯氨酸含量及敏感波段的(550和760 nm)的光谱反射率显著上升(P0.05),3种草坪草抗旱性能的强弱顺序为:高羊茅多年生黑麦草草地早熟禾。3种草坪草敏感波段光谱反射率(R_(550 nm),R_(760 nm))及高光谱参数(Rg,R0,GNDVI)与生理指标间呈显著或极显著相关,以R_(550 nm)与生理指标间的相关系数绝对值最大。同时R_(550 nm)构建了供试草坪草生理指标的估测模型,经检验,模型估测值与实测值相关性达显著或极显著水平。     

Characterization of tuberculous granulomas in different stages of progression and associated tertiary lymphoid tissue in goats experimentally infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. hominissuis

Oral infection of goats with Mycobacterium avium subsp. hominissuis (MAH) resulted in a large variety of granulomas in organized gut-associated lymphatic tissues and intestinal lymph nodes. To characterize the cellular composition of granulomas, CD4⁺, CD8⁺, γδ, B lymphocytes and plasma, CD25⁺, CD68⁺, MHC-II⁺, Ki67⁺ and endothelial cells were labeled in consecutive frozen sections by immunohistochemistry and acid fast bacilli (AFB) by Kinyoun stain. Granulomas with extensive necrosis, little mineralization and variable numbers of AFB surrounded by many CD4⁺ T cells, but only few epitheloid macrophages were observed in severely sick goats at 2–3 mpi. They were interpreted as exuberant immune reaction. Organized granulomas with very few AFB were seen in clinically healthy goats at 13 mpi. The necrotic cores were surrounded by a zone of granulomatous infiltrate with many epitheloid macrophages and few lymphocytes. This zone was initially wide and highly vascularized and became progressively smaller. It was enclosed by an increasing layer of connective tissue. All organized granulomas were surrounded by compartimentalized tertiary lymphoid tissue. The granulomas in experimental infection of goats with MAH reflect the heterogeneity of lesions seen in mycobacterial infections of humans and ruminants and are therefore valuable for comparative research.     

Day-to-Day variation of the urine protein: creatinine ratio in female dogs with stable glomerular proteinuria caused by X-linked hereditary nephropathy

BACKGROUND: Interpretation of serial urine protein:creatinine (UPC) values is confounded by a lack of data regarding random biologic variation of UPC values in dogs with stable glomerular proteinuria. HYPOTHESIS: That there is minimal day-to-day variability in the UPC of dogs with unchanging proteinuria and the number of measurements needed to reliably estimate UPC varies with the magnitude of proteinuria. ANIMALS: Forty-eight heterozygous (carrier) female dogs with X-linked hereditary nephropathy (XLHN) causing stable proteinuria. METHODS: Urine samples were obtained daily by cystocentesis for 3 consecutive days on 183 occasions (549 samples). The UPC was measured for each sample with a single dry-film chemistry auto-analyzer. Data were analyzed retrospectively by a power of the mean model because the variance of UPC values within the 3-day evaluation periods increased as the magnitude of proteinuria increased. RESULTS: To demonstrate a significant difference (P < .05) between serial values in these proteinuric dogs, the UPC must change by at least 35% at high UPC values (near 12) and 80% at low UPC values (near 0.5). One measurement is adequate to reliably estimate the UPC when UPC <4, but 2-5 determinations are necessary at higher UPC values. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: These guidelines for interpretation of serial UPC values in female dogs with XLHN may also be helpful for interpretation of UPC values in dogs with other glomerulopathies.     

Neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis: clinical and morphologic findings in nine affected Polish Owczarek Nizinny (PON) dogs

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to characterize the clinical and morphologic features of neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (NCL) in the Polish Owczarek Nizinny (PON) breed of dog. ANIMALS: Nine Swedish PON dogs of both sexes were included in the study. PROCEDURE: All dogs underwent a detailed clinical evaluation, with emphasis on ophthalmic exams. Histopathology and electron microscopy were performed on the eyes, brain and various internal organs. Immunohistochemical staining for detection of sphingolipid activator proteins (SAPs) and mitochondrial ATP synthase (SCMAS) was performed on the eyes and brain. RESULTS: The dogs showed behavioral abnormalities, motor disturbances and visual impairment or blindness. Pupillary responses were abnormal while fundus changes varied from normal to severe retinal atrophy. Electroretinography (ERG) showed variable changes, from slight alterations in the process of dark adaptation to severely reduced or nonrecordable ERG a- and b-wave amplitudes. Histopathology revealed intracytoplasmic storage bodies within neurons of the brain and in retinal cells, especially the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE). Round to oval granular type of inclusion bodies, known as granular osmiophilic dense deposits (GRODS), were found in neuronal cells in the brain and in the retina. Immunohistochemistry identified the storage material in the brain and retina as consisting of SAPs. CONCLUSION: The presently described NCL disease in PON dogs shows similarities to previously recorded cases in the Miniature Schnauzer. The closest human equivalent to this disease is infantile NCL (CLN1), in which the major stored proteins are SAPs and the ultrastructure of the inclusion bodies of neuronal cells is granular.     

海河二道闸和防潮闸优化调度研究

汛期为腾空海河河道并保证二道闸下咸水不致上溯，二道闸闸下水位应控制在1.0m左右。利用一维非恒定流模型对海河自西河闸至入海口河段进行数值模拟，研究了西河闸分流量为80、100、120m3/s3种情况下，海河防潮闸和二道闸优化调度结果。