山区庄园式开发模式研究——以河北省元氏县为例

本文对河北省元氏县山区庄园式开发模式进行了论述,该模式通过山区“四荒”(荒山、荒坡、荒沟、荒滩)地使用权的拍卖调动了群众治理荒山的积极性,将“庄”与“园”相结合,对山区进行综合性、立体化治理,实现了生态效益、经济效益和社会效益的协调发展,是实现山区农民脱贫致富的有效途径。     

区域农业生产结构优化模型的建立

优化区域农业生产结构对于提高农民收入具有重要的现实意义。为此,在研究区域农业生产各单元之间结构关系的基础上,确定了决策变量和参数,建立了包括种植业、养殖业和加工业在内的农业生产结构优化的线性规划模型,对区域农业产业结构优化模型的建立进行了有益的理论探索。     

王家厂水库洪水实时预报方法及应用研究

考虑到流域降雨时空变化和流域地形、河道特征对流域产汇流的影响，应用新安江三水源产流模型、流域分散入流非线性汇流模型以及流域洪水实时预报校正模型，对王家厂流域洪水进行模拟，取得了较为满意的计算结果。     

施水播种条件下灌溉水入渗模型研究

运用土壤动力学原理建立了灌溉水入渗的数学模型，并进行了实际灌水的试验验证，试验结果表明所建模型的模拟结果与试验结果吻合较好。应用模型模拟分析发现：适量增加沟宽或回土量可以减小入渗时间，缩短播种机排水口至排种口距离。     

Bio-economic evaluation of farmers’ perceptions of viable farms in western Kenya

Arable land in western Kenya is under considerable pressure from increasing human population. Rural households depend on farming for at least part of their livelihood, and poverty rates are among the highest in Kenya. Land is often depleted of nutrients, and for most farmers, access to inputs and markets is poor. There is a need to identify options that are manageable within the context of the farmer’s resource base and the household’s objectives that could improve farm household well-being. In this study we integrated qualitative informal participatory approaches with quantitative mathematical programming and biophysical simulation modelling. Households in four sub-locations in Vihiga District were clustered and pilot cases identified. Meetings were held with farmers to elicit their perceptions of what their ideal farm would look like, and how its performance might compare with their own farm’s performance. With farmers’ help, a range of scenarios was analysed, relating to changes in current enterprise mixes, changes in current farm sizes, and changes in prices of staples foods and cash crops. A considerable mismatch was found between farmers’ estimates of their own farm’s performance, and what was actually produced. There seems to be a threshold in farm size of 0.4 ha, below which it is very difficult for households to satisfy their income and food security objectives. Even for larger farms whose households are largely dependent on agriculture, the importance of a cash crop in the system is critical. There is a crucial role for extension services in making farmers aware of the potential impacts on farm revenue of modest changes in their farm management systems. We are monitoring nine households in the district, whose farmers have made some changes to their system in an attempt to increase household income and enhance food security.     

水产品收购价格预测的时序组合模型研究

我国水产品市场已经出现了区域性、结构性的供大于求及价格持续下降的现象。为此，对水产品价格进行预测是必要的。以1978～1999年数据为样本，利用时序组合模型对2000年的水产品收购价格进行了预测研究。     

平面二维数模研究闸下淤积的缺陷

以姚江大闸和武障河闸为例，对河口水域建闸后的闸下淤积的机理进行了研究。通过应用二维悬沙模型的模拟计算，分析了数学模型在模拟近闸段的淤积时存在的缺陷，对产生问题的原因进行了初步探讨。由于闸下淤积问题存在明显的时空性和区域性特征，应积极研究解决措施。     

荒漠化预警模型及其应用研究

分析了土地生产潜力的影响因子及其计算方法，从机理上分析各因子给未来荒漠化的发展趋势可能造成的影响，并从土地生产潜力退化基本原理出发，建立了荒漠化顸警模型。以疏勒河流域为背景，在GIS平台支持下，应用预警模型分析了该流域昌马灌区农业综合开发后的荒漠化趋势，对灌区荒漠化的发展趋势和潜在危险性进行了分析判断。     

刚性暗管结构形式与排水性能关系的三维电模拟研究

作者选用电解液模型对农田排水暗管的五种结构处理进行了三维渗流测试，揭示了其渗流场的基本形态及势场变化规律，定性地描述了此五种暗管结构排水性能的优劣，同时采用能综合反映暗管排水性能的流量系数值，对不同结构在各种参数组合条件下的排水性能作了定量的分析对比，结合以往室内砂槽试验成果，提供了合理的暗管结构设计依据。此外，应用保角变换法求得了仅有纵缝和全管壁进水的两种结构的二维渗流量解析式，并通过对试验资料的统计分析和线性回归分析法推导出三维渗流量的近似计算式。     

咸水灌溉下土壤水盐变化的试验研究

2002年在内蒙古河套灌区红卫节水示范园进行了咸水灌溉试验,分析试验结果得出:咸水灌溉下的土壤经过秋浇后含盐量可以降到咸水灌溉前水平。以荷兰Wageningen农业大学等单位开发的土壤水分大气作物系统模拟软件SWAP为工具,应用示范园的土壤、水、盐分试验资料对模型的参数进行了率定和验证,模型模拟结果和田间试验结果符合较好。