鞭角华扁时蜂滞育幼虫空间型测报抽样技术研究

鞭角华扁叶蜂滞育期幼虫通过空间分布型参数Ｋｕｎｏ指数、聚集指标Ｉ、ｍ／指数、扩散型指标Ｉσ及α、β值分析结果，滞育期幼虫呈聚集分布、个体群。应用空间分布型参数得抽样公式；序贯抽样累积虫量界限林间９０％抽样可靠性指标；５０条／ｍ２需样地４２块，２００条／ｍ２需样地２２块，３５０条／ｍ２需样地１９块。     

青杨虎天牛预测预报技术的研究

1993-1995年，对青杨虎天牛主要测报指标进行了研究。通过虫期发生量预测式，预测不同虫态的发生量，所预测的幼虫和成虫发生盛期与实查结果基本吻合。     

Predicting equations of main factors affecting regional climate in the "Three-North" Protective Forest Area

lntroductionInordertosolvetheseriousecologicaIproblemwefacedandimprovethephenomenonoflanddesertifi-cationinthenorthareaofChina.ChinahasbeguntoconstructtheThree-NorthProtectiveForestSystemsince1978.Withthehardworkoftwentyyears,itistold"Thegreatestecologicalprojectoftheworld"and"ThegreengreatwaIl".AIthoughthecountryinvestedIotsofcapitaItobuiIdtheThree-Northshelter-forestsystemthroughmanywayssuchasThree-Northspecialinvestment,financeappropriatefunds,finan-cialloansandtakeoutfundsforbringup…     

黄山松人工林球果生物量的测定

采取平均木法实测不同立地条件的 10年生黄山松球果生物量 ,阐明黄山松球果生物量与立地条件以及测树因子之间的相互关系。 10年生黄山松山脊球果生物量最高平均每株 0 5 8kg ,而山坡最低为 0 4kg。应用树高和胸径分别推导出预测黄山松球果生物量的回归方程。     

西北太平洋柔鱼渔情速报系统的开发

The neon flying squid, Ommastrephes bartrami, is one of the most important jig fisheries in the northwest Pacific Ocean. In order to understand the movement of O. bartrami fishing-ground better and supply O. bartrami fishing-ground information for Chinese fishing boats in the northwest Pacific ocean, the fishing condition analysis and forecasting system of O. bartrami was developed successfully. The system was based on established comprehensive database, which included the catch data of O. bartrami (total yields, count of total fishing boats, fishing position etc. ) and oceanic environmental information (SST, SST gradient etc. ). Artificial intelligent technology about case-based reasoning was also combined with GIS component technology successfully in the system. The process and function of system establishment are composed of four parts: setting up of case database for central fishing-ground and its environmental factors, knowledge reasoning of fishery information, GIS visualization analyzing as well as trend forecasting of central fishing-ground and information production mapping. At last as an example of the results, an experimental central fishing-ground forecasting of O. bartrami from 9 to 15 in July 2002 in the northwest Pacific Ocean was given in the paper. The results showed that through three class similar searching forecasting central fishing-ground would move west, and indicating that forecasting of the system for O. bartrami central fishing-ground was correct by comparing to real fishing-ground from 16 to 22 in July 2002. Consequently, artificial intelligent expert system technology about case-based reasoning is a useful method for fishing condition and fishing-ground forecasting.     

A structured approach to using biological and environmental parameters to forecast anchovy recruitment

Simulation studies have indicated that a valuable increase in mean annual yield could be achieved in the South African anchovy, Engraulis capensis , fishery if below-average recruitment could be forecast at the start of the fishing season, 6 months before recruitment can he reliably measured. This paper reports on initial investigations into biological and environmental indicator- which could be used to make such forecasts. Valid estimates of recruitment strength in the species are available from 1985 to 1992 and the environmental and biological indicators of interest have been monitored for periods starting from between 1984 and 1988, to the present. Most of the data were obtained from monitoring on anchovy spawner biomass surveys which have been undertaken each November since 1984.
A conceptual model of the factors influencing the recruitment process was constructed and the available data were examined for empirical evidence of the importance of each event included in the model. Fluctuations in copepod biomass and production on the spawning grounds, the incidence of oocyte atresia in adult females, the incidence of southerly winds at Cape Point and the distance offshore of the 16°C isotherm at Cape Columbine were associated with fluctuations in anchovy recruitment. It is suggested that particular attention should be paid to monitoring of these variables to investigate further these associations. If persistent relationships are found, it may be possible to construct an expert system to forecast recruitment from observed values of these variables at the start of a fishing season. A preliminary set of three decision rules is presented.     

Rainfall erosivity and erosivity density through rainfall synthetic series for São Paulo State,Brazil: Assessment,regionalization and modeling

Rainfall is the main cause of erosion of Brazilian soils, which makes assessing the rainfall erosivity factor (RE) and the erosivity density (ED) fundamental for soil and water conservation. Therefore, the objectives of this study were: i) to estimate the RE and ED for São Paulo State, Brazil, using synthetic series of pluviographic data; ii) to define homogeneous regions regarding rainfall erosivity; and iii) to generate regression models for rainfall erosivity estimates in each of the homogeneous regions. Synthetic series of pluviographic data were initially obtained on a sub-daily scale from the daily rainfall records of 696 rainfall gauges. The RE values were then estimated from the synthetic rainfall data, and ED was calculated from the relationship between erosivity and rainfall amounts. Monthly and annual maps for RE and ED were obtained. Hierarchical clustering analysis was used to define homogeneous regions in terms of rainfall erosivity, and regionalized regression models for estimating RE were generated. The results demonstrate high spatial variability of RE in São Paulo, where the highest annual values were observed in the coastal region. December to March concentrate approximately 60% of the intra-annual erosivity. The highest values of annual ED were observed in regions with intense agricultural activity. The definition of five homogeneous regions concerning the rainfall erosive potential evidenced distinct seasonal patterns of the spatial distribution of erosivity. Finally, the high predictive accuracy of the regionalized models obtained characterizes them as essential tools for reliable estimates of rainfall erosivity, and contribute to better soil conservation planning.     

组合预测模型在黑龙江省农机总动力预测中的应用

农机总动力是反映和评价农业机械化水平的一个重要指标.通过对黑龙江省农机总动力历史数据进行分析,建立了指数模型、GM（1,1）模型和BP神经网络模型3种预测模型,其次,应用基于离异系数法、二次规划法、Shapley值权重分配法分别构建组合预测模型.拟合结果表明,各种组合预测模型优于各单一模型.最后应用基于Shapley值权重分配法对黑龙江省农机总动力进行组合预测,为制定农机动力发展规划提供了依据.     

水稻条纹叶枯病的气象研究

采用1995～ 2011年原阳县气象观测站地面气象观测资料和原阳县农业科学研究所提供的对应年5～6月灰飞虱虫口密度资料,对影响灰飞虱虫口密度的因子进行了筛选.结果表明,3月份平均气温、5月份平均最高气温与灰飞虱虫口密度具有很好的相关性.利用SPSS统计平台,采用逐步回归的方法筛选预报因子,建立预测模式并进行检验订正,计算拟合准确率较高,具有指导意义.     

沧州市土壤墒情预报方法研究

结合沧州市实际情况,以冬小麦和夏玉米为典型作物分析沧州市土壤墒情变化特点,揭示沧州区域土壤墒情变化规律和演变趋势;对捷地旱情试验站土壤墒情监测资料进行分析研究,利用P—ρ0—Δρ增墒相关法建立增墒预报方案,利用退墒系数法以及ρt—T—ρ0相关法建立退墒预报方案,探讨适合沧州区域的土壤墒情预报方法,对类似地区相关研究具有重要的推广价值。