能源与农业价格传递分析

运用协整分析、向量自回归、误差修正模型和脉冲响应的方法,详细研究中国从2000年1月至2004年10月新的一轮原油价格上涨之后,月度原油现货价格和生产资料以及生活资料各部分(包括食品、服装、一般日用品、耐用消费品等)尤其是农副食品链之间的价格传导关系。研究结果表明,我国原油价格的传递在上游生产资料产品中显著且滞后期较短,在中游和下游生活资料的传递不畅通且影响的滞后期比较长。     

Policy reforms,rice production and sustainable land use in China: A macro–micro analysis

This paper presents a macro–micro analysis of the impact of policy reforms in China on agricultural production, input use and soil quality change for a major rice-producing area, namely Jiangxi province. This is done in three steps. First, a quantitative assessment is made of the impact of market liberalization policies on the economic environment of farm households in Jiangxi province. Econometric analyses based on provincial, national and world market data are used to explain changes in rice and fertilizer prices in Jiangxi province over time. Next, the impact of China’s recent income support policy and latest price trends on farm household choices with respect to activity choice (particularly rice and livestock) and input use (fertilizers, pesticides, manure) is assessed for two villages with different degrees of market access in north-east Jiangxi province. Two village-level general equilibrium models are used to analyse household decision-making and interactions between households within these villages. The parameters are estimated and calibrated from an extensive survey held in these villages in the year 2000. Finally, the impact of land tenure policy on farm management decisions (labour, manure and chemical input use), soil quality (available P and K and total N and C) and rice yields is analysed through an econometric analysis of plot-level data for three villages. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) is used to control for interactions with yields and for feedbacks towards input use. The paper ends with a number of suggestions for policy adjustments that would reduce the problem of natural soil compaction in the research area.     

工业企业调价方法的探讨

为提高工业企业在市场经济条件下的价格决策水平，根据工业企业调价的基本动因，探讨了其调价的基本思路。利用需求弹性理论导出了理论最佳调价幅度的计算公式，并引用“调模法”的思想对理论最佳调价幅度进行了修正。实践证明，该方法实用可行。     

中国大米国际竞争力研究 ——基于同印度、巴基斯坦、泰国和越南的比较分析

稻谷是中国主要的粮食生产作物，具有较强的创造经济效益的能力。从联合国粮农组织和世界贸易组织的相关数据上来看，中国大米产量与中国大米的出口量存在着明显的不对称。笔者从研究国际竞争力的显示性指标出发，选择了亚洲最大的5个大米出口国作为研究对象，运用了国际市场占有率、贸易竞争指数、显示性比较优势指数、进出口价格比4个指标对中国大米的国际竞争力作了实证分析。结果表明，中国大米与印度、巴基斯坦、泰国和越南4国相比，不具有国际竞争力优势。     

人民币汇率变动对中国进口商品价格传递效应的实证研究

通过选取国民经济的24个重点行业,使用从2009~2013年的共60个月度数据为研究样本,采用ADL模型,对汇率变动对按国民经济分类行业的进口价格的传递弹性系数进行实证研究。结果表明：从长期来看,我国人民币汇率变动与进口价格存在着负相关关系,不同行业和产品的传递弹性存在着较大差异。     

An analysis of price formation in the Dutch mussel industry

This paper presents the findings of a study aimed at identifying the determinants of price formation in the mussel industry in the Netherlands. The Netherlands is one of the major producers of mussels in Europe and the largest exporter. As such it is expected to have an important influence on price formation in Europe. The investigation of price formation attempted to identify the most important determinants of price at the wholesale market level and to test any interactions between the Dutch market and other markets in Europe. Estimation was by means of an econometric demand analysis using monthly data from the single auction market at Yerseke. The Dutch market was found to be highly competitive, with price highly responsive to supply, quality and seasonality. This short-term price elasticity is paired with price-inelastic short-term supply. Therefore there is potential for shifting the demand curve without inducing a shift in supply. The implications of these results are discussed and suggestions for marketing put forward.     

我国不同类型蔬菜价格波动分解与贡献分析

为了细致地考察我国不同种类蔬菜价格波动特征与规律,总结不同蔬菜价格波动的异同与变化,本文运用季节分解和H-P滤波法,将我国四大类28种蔬菜批发价格分解为趋势、周期、季节、随机4种波动类型。分析发现:近年来季节波动对蔬菜价格的波动贡献逐渐减弱;随机波动对瓜果类、叶菜类蔬菜价格的波动贡献不断加强。各波动类型对不同蔬菜价格的影响差异较大,季节波动对瓜果类蔬菜价格影响强于其他蔬菜;叶菜类蔬菜价格波动更容易受随机因素影响;周期波动对姜蒜类价格波动贡献明显。     

2014年辽宁省生猪生产形势分析及2015年预测

2014年,辽宁省乃至全国生猪生产遭遇寒冬,出现量价齐跌现象,小规模养殖户被迫退出生产,大中规模养殖场艰难运营,全年亏损严重。本文从价格、效益、生产三方面分析了2014年辽宁省生猪生产形势变化情况,并综合多方因素对2015年生猪生产形势进行预测,希望能给养猪人士带来启示。     

我国农业发展:现状分析与对策措施

目前，制约我国农业发展的主要因素是工业和城市不合理发展、农产品流通和加工发展滞后、农产品价格结构不合理、农业生产结构低级化、农业基础设施落后、农业技术进步缓慢和农业信息不发达。必须采取全面的、系统的和综合性的措施来解决这些问题。     

期货市场与棉花流通体制改革

本文回顾了我国棉花流通体制的沿革,评析了我国棉花流通体制市场化改革中面临的考验。文章进一步分析了棉花期货在棉花流通体制市场化改革中的作用,并就促进期货市场更好地服务棉花流通体制改革提出了一些尝试性的建议,即为我国棉花期货市场发展创造宽松的环境;积极培育棉花期货市场交易主体;尽快放开资金和投资者准入限制等。