基于支持向量回归与地统计学的农民收入预测

农民收入既受其自身动态时序特性的影响,又与国家政策、农产品产量、天气等多种人为因素和自然因素关系密切,是一种典型的多维时间序列数据.该研究以国民总收入、乡村人口等11个可能与农民收入相关的影响因子为自变量,农村居民家庭平均每人纯收入为因变量,基于1982～2011年我国相关统计数据,采用支持向量回归与地统计学非线性时间序列预测模型对农民收入进行分析.结果表明：非线性时间序列预测模型大幅度提高了农民收入预测精度;农民的主要收入来源已不是粮食生产,而是向其他农业生产、进城务工等方面转移.     

基于灰色关联理论的海南省农民人均纯收入分析

运用灰色系统理论的关联分析方法,对海南省农民人均纯收入与影响农民人均纯收入的主要因素进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,各因素对农民人均纯收入影响的关联序为：农业贷款、乡镇企业贷款(0.838 2)＞农业机械总动力(0.835 3)＞农业生产资料价格总指数(0.796 4)＞农村家庭从业人员(0.730 3)＞粮食单位面积产量(0.701 1)＞农业人口数(0.684 3)＞农业生产总值(0.678 9)＞耕地总面积(0.670 8)＞粮食占农作物总播种面积比重(0.644 4)。在此基础上,根据关联度的分析,对如何发挥主导因素的作用,提高海南省农民人均纯收入提出了政策建议。     

Development of an irrigation regime for winter wheat to save water resources by avoiding irrigation at anthesis stage

Latest published information is limited on agronomic responses of winter wheat to irrigation quantity and the necessity of irrigation at the anthesis stage. This study was conducted to (1) evaluate winter wheat yield, water use, assimilate redistribution and economic benefit with respect to water input and (2) quantify relationship between water input and yield to develop a standard for withholding irrigation at anthesis. A 4-year long field experiment was conducted to evaluate winter wheat water use, yield formation pathway and farmers' income under three irrigation regimes: rainfed, irrigation at sowing and jointing (SJ-W) and irrigation at sowing, jointing and anthesis (SJA-W). The yield formation pathway was correlated with the water-induced variation in assimilate redistribution and accumulation. Throughout the experimental period, wheat yield was 19–38% lower in rainfed than that under other irrigation treatments. Moreover, SJ-W treatment substantially increased biomass accumulation at anthesis, accelerated assimilate redistribution in vegetative organs and eventually resulted in a similar wheat yield to that of SJA-W. Simultaneously, the SJ-W treatment had lower irrigation water, reduced additional irrigation cost, suppressed yield loss and obtained a similar farmer's net income to the SJA-W treatment. Water-induced variations in yield were determined by irrigation, rainfall and soil water storage. SJ-W plots receiving 204–331 mm water input (rainfall + irrigation) before anthesis and holding 549–587 mm soil water during anthesis stage achieved higher irrigation water use efficiency and yield relative to the rainfed and SJA-W plots. In contrast, water input under rainfed plots exceeded 200 mm before anthesis, limiting yield substantially even when seasonal soil water consumption exceeded 160 mm. Developing a standard for withholding irrigation at the anthesis stage should incorporate 204–331 mm of water input (rainfall + irrigation) before anthesis and 549–587 mm soil water storage at anthesis, which could achieve a high wheat yield and save water resources.     

基于Origin 7.5软件的地区生态足迹预测分析

利用生态足迹模型计算黔东南州1997～2006年人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力,并运用Origin 7．5软件对黔东南州1997～2006年人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行拟合分析,在此基础上对黔东南州2008～2020年人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行预测。预测结果表明：黔东南州人均生态足迹由2008年的1．227943hm^2升至2020年的2．458619hm^2,年均增长率达到8．35％,增长速度较快;人均生态承载力从2008年的0．957124hm^2降至2020年的0．945817hm^2,年均下降率为1．18％,相对下降缓慢;生态赤字由2008年的0．270819hm^2扩大到2020年的1．512802hm^2,年均增长率达到38．22％,上升幅度较大。     

The use of antibiotics on small dairy farms in rural Peru

Very little is known about the use of antibiotics on small dairy farms in lower/middle-income countries. The use of these drugs can have profound impacts on animal health, farmer income and public health. A survey of 156 farmers was conducted in Cajamarca, a major dairy-producing center in the highlands of Peru characterized by small farms (<15 cows) to assess patterns and determinants of antibiotic use and farmers’ knowledge of antibiotics. The reported incidence of disease on these farms was relatively low (0.571 episodes of disease per cow-year), but more than 83% of the reported episodes were treated with antibiotics. The most commonly used antibiotics were oxytetracycline, penicillin and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole drugs; antiparasitic drugs were also used to treat what were likely bacterial infections. An increased incidence of treated disease was significantly associated with smaller farm size, lower farmer income, the previous use of the Californian Mastitis test on the farm and antibiotic knowledge. Farmers’ knowledge of antibiotics was assessed with a series of questions on antibiotics, resulting in a “knowledge score”. Increased knowledge was significantly associated with the use of antibiotics for preventative reasons, the purchase of antibiotics from feed-stores, the experience of complications in animals after having administered antibiotics, the number of workers on the farm and the educational level of the farmer. Overall, antibiotics appeared to be used infrequently, most likely because therapeutic interventions were sought only when the animal had reached an advanced stage of clinical disease. Few farmers were able to define an antibiotic, but many farmers understood that the use of antibiotics carried inherent risks to their animals and potentially to the consumers of dairy products from treated animals. The results of this study are useful for understanding the patterns of antibiotic use and associated management, demographic and knowledge factors of farmers on small dairy farms in rural Peru.     

基于铁邮协同的鲜果电商物流的研究

根据水果的特点和社会消费需求的趋势,总结鲜果电商物流存在的问题,探讨铁邮协同的鲜果电商物流优势,分析其中转耗时及投送区域,并明确该模式的运行主体及分工、运作关键环节、成本控制与收益分配,以此为铁邮协同开展鲜果电商物流提供参考。     

Toward sustainable harvesting of Africa's largest medicinal plant export (Prunus africana): a case study in Tanzania

Global demand for treating prostate disorders with Prunus africana bark extract has made P. africana Africa's largest medicinal plant export. Unsustainable harvesting practices can lead to local extirpations of this multipurpose tree. Survey research targeting P. africana harvesters in a Tanzania forest reserve revealed that 78% of them used unsustainable harvesting practices. This research focused on establishing a socioeconomic profile of the harvesters, the profitability of their business operations, and identifying the factors that influence their selection of harvesting practices. Results indicate that harvesters have above-national-average education, double the average family size, and generate income exceeding government's minimum wages. Large family size and high earning potential imply increased future harvesting activity. Logistic regression results indicate that education and training level could predict the likelihood that a harvester would use unsustainable harvesting practices. Local- and district-level government organisations could implement a resource assessment as a basis to design and implement harvesting schedules and ensure that the harvesters receive appropriate training, regardless of their education level.     

泰州市稻田综合种养产业发展分析及建议

系统阐述了泰州市稻田综合种养产业的发展现状,包括分布区域、经营主体、种养模式等,统计了不同种养模式的应用面积、产量及收益,对稻田综合种养及常规稻麦种植两种模式下的经济效益进行了对比。结果表明,稻田综合种养模式能显著提高土地利用率,促进当地农业增效和农民增收。通过对稻田综合种养模式推广应用过程中的比较优势以及存在问题进行系统分析,提出了针对性的解决措施和建议。     

Income Distribution and Growth--Survey of Theories and Empirical in Modern Western Economics

Economic growth and income distribution are two of the major subjects in international economic studies. Perforce theory believes that inequality improve growth. Endogenous economic growth theory shows that inequality is harmful for growth. After summarizing western theory on growth and income distribution, this paper gives the detail survey of relationship between income distribution and growth, and the mechanism of the effect is discussed.     

Reviews

Book reviewed in this article: Winston Halapua, Living on the fringe: Melanesians of Fiji Patrick Fuery and Nick Mansfield, Cultural Studies and Critical Theory Keith Chambers and Anne Chambers, Unity of Heart. Culture and Change in a Polynesian Atoll Society Alice Aruhe’eta Pollard, Givers of Wisdom, Labourers without Gain: Essays on Women in Solomon Islands Prema–chandra Athukorala, Chris Manning and Piyasiri Wickramasekara, Growth, Employment and Migration in Southeast Asia: Structural Change in the Greater Mekong Countries Edvard Hviding and Tim Bayliss–Smith, Islands of Rainforest: Agroforestry, Logging and Eco–tourism in Solomon Islands