海兰褐蛋鸡早期生长模型的拟合与分析简

为了掌握海兰褐蛋鸡早期的生长发育规律,运用Gompertz、vonBertalanffy和Richards三种非线性模型对0～10周龄的海兰褐蛋鸡体重数据进行了拟合与分析。结果表明：三种模型均能很好地模拟海兰褐蛋鸡早期的生长过程,拟合度均在0．99以上,但vonBertalanffij模型拟合效果更好,此模型拟合的生长曲线拐点周龄为19．98周,拐点体重为2358．44g,最大周增重为159．94g／周。yonBertalanffy模型在模拟海兰褐蛋鸡早期生长状况方面为理想的数学模型,此研究结果可作为科学饲养该鸡种的重要参考。     

Type 2 diabetes mellitus with pancreatic β cell dysfunction in 3 horses confirmed with minimal model analysis

Reasons for performing study: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is diagnosed rarely in equine practice although it may be under‐recognised. A greater awareness of the condition and therapeutic considerations would be to the benefit of such cases presenting in practice. More investigation into the pharmacological management of these cases is needed. Objectives: Three cases of diabetes mellitus were investigated using a specific test for insulin sensitivity and pancreatic β cell function in order to define accurately and characterise the existence of T2DM in all 3 subjects. Methods: The insulin‐modified frequently sampled i.v. glucose tolerance test was performed in each case and the data so obtained were subject to minimal model analysis of insulin‐glucose dynamics. Cases were then monitored following treatment using a combination of dietary modification, metformin, glibenclamide and pergolide. Results: Marked insulin resistance was identified in each case and, furthermore, severe pancreatic β cell dysfunction was present therefore classifying each case as end stage T2DM. Treatment was nevertheless associated with restoration of normoglycaemia in all cases. Conclusions: T2DM in horses may be more common than generally considered. In some cases individuals may respond to therapy aimed at restoring insulin sensitivity and pancreatic function. Drugs used in other species for the treatment of T2DM have not yet been adequately tested in horses. Potential relevance: T2DM should be considered as an important differential diagnosis in mature to elderly horses and ponies suffering from weight loss, polydipsia and polyuria. Clinicians should be encouraged to offer treatment and management advice when such cases are encountered.     

藏北草原生态文明评价与发展趋势预测

对藏北典型区域那曲县进行了生态文明统计测度与评价,并对未来8年生态环境与经济协调程度进行预测,为藏北牧区生态文明建设提出对策与思路。采用生态模型评价的方法,在分析生态文明内涵、发展、描述、评估和评价的基础上,寻求了一组具有典型代表意义并能反映藏北牧区生态文明建设各方面要求的特征指标;以那曲县为例建立了评价指标体系,利用生态脆弱地区"生态环境-经济发展"系统评价模型对当地生态文明建设的现状和目标进行了定量判断。引用协调发展程度计算模型,采用灰色系统方法(GM(1,1)模型)对那曲地区过去及未来经济与生态环境协调发展程度进行计算并预测。结果表明:那曲县生态环境与经济相互协调发展程度相对较低,2001~2013年生态环境与经济发展处在初级协调发展类和勉强协调发展类之间,未来8年协调发展程度呈下滑态势。     

实验性猕猴1型糖尿病模型的建立及评价

7～10岁健康猕猴15只,随机分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ组,每组5只,分别按照100、125、150mg/kg的剂量一次性静脉注射链脲菌素,连续观察血糖、血浆C肽和胰岛素浓度的动态变化,观察期15周.结果:与注射链脲菌素前比较,注射后1周,Ⅰ组猕猴血糖浓度明显升高,血浆C肽和胰岛素浓度显著下降(P＜0.01),随后趋于正常水平,而Ⅱ、Ⅲ组猕猴血糖浓度明显升高并在随后的时间内持续维持在高水平,血浆C肽和胰岛素浓度持续维持在低水平(P＜0.001),Ⅲ组动物至15周全部死亡.结论:按照125mg/kg的剂量一次性给猕猴静脉注射链脲菌素,可成功复制1型糖尿病动物模型,其维持高血糖和低胰岛素及C肽浓度至少15周.     

乳牛体型性状线性评定数学模型的指导和应用

本文说明了乳牛体型性状线性评定的常规方法,在此基础上推导出了该评定方法的数学模型。该模型的提出,极大地简化了常规评定方法的繁琐计算,值得在乳牛业生产实践中推广使用。     

大别山板栗片热泵干燥特性及动力学模型分析

为了研究大别山板栗片热泵干燥过程和特性,建立其干燥动力学模型,并优化干燥工艺以提高干燥后的品质,以大别山板栗为研究对象进行热泵干燥动力学研究,通过对7 种常用干燥模型线性化处理,筛选适合用来描述板栗片热泵干燥特性的数学模型,并利用试验数据与模型进行回归拟合,确定并建立最适合的数学模型。结果表明：Page 模型的预测值曲线和实测值曲线高度吻合,Page模型可用来描述板栗片热泵干燥过程中水分的变化规律。研究结果可为板栗片实际生产中的热泵干燥加工提供一定参考。     

基于广义混合效应模型的云冷杉林天然更新计数方法研究

天然更新是森林恢复较好的办法,对未来林分结构和生物多样性具有深远的影响。更新模型能够模拟天然更新的现实和未来状况,为森林经营者提供准确的森林计划。以吉林省汪清林业局2013年设置的12块云冷杉针阔混交林为例,选择泊松和负二项分布形式,考虑样地间的随机效应,构建基于林分因子的云冷杉针阔混交林天然更新模型。结果表明：各个树种对林分因子的反应不一,白桦更新株数与林分每公顷株数和平均直径均呈负相关;红松和水曲柳更新株数不受各个林分因子的影响,更新株数是随机的;冷杉更新株数与林分每公顷断面积呈负相关;色木槭和云杉更新株数均与林分平均直径呈负相关。在考虑样地的随机截距效应后,模型的模拟效果显著提高。在构建天然更新模型时,林分密度是十分重要的因子,如果要人工促进天然更新,就要科学合理的采取经营措施,以确保合理的林分密度。另外样地间的差异是不容忽略的因素,需要利用混合效应模型方法来降低预测误差。     

Analysis of regional variation of height growth and slenderness in populations of six urban tree species using a quantile regression approach

Inventory data of six urban tree species from seven cities across Germany were used to model regional variation of height growth, allometric scaling, and slenderness over a wide range of size and age using a quantile regression approach. Variation within and between species and cities was large. Height did not reach an asymptote but declined at higher ages, presumably because of reduction cuts. Allometric scaling and slenderness varied with wind climate, modulus of elasticity, and coefficient of drag. Our data do not support the use of a threshold value of slenderness in tree risk assessment.     

应用高光谱数据定量反演查干湖水质参数研究

湖泊水质下降和富营养化问题日益严重,传统监测方法已经日益不能满足水质监测的需要。该文通过野外高光谱仪器测定查干湖水体反射光谱,分析研究水体反射光谱特征与水质参数叶绿素a含量、透明度和浊度之间的关系,运用多种半经验算法建立反演模型。结果表明:单波段光谱反射率与叶绿素a和浊度的相关系数较小,但与透明度相关系数较高;光谱反射率通过对数、比值转换,可以有效的提高叶绿素a和浊度估测模型的精度,却对透明度作用不大。总体来说,叶绿素a和浊度估测模型效果较好,透明度高光谱估测模型相对较差,需进一步研究。     

Accounting for uncertainty in pedotransfer functions in vulnerability assessments of pesticide leaching to groundwater

A simulation tool for site-specific vulnerability assessments of pesticide leaching to groundwater was developed, based on the pesticide fate and transport model MACRO, parameterized using pedotransfer functions and reasonable worst-case parameter values. The effects of uncertainty in the pedotransfer functions on simulation results were examined for 48 combinations of soils, pesticides and application timings, by sampling pedotransfer function regression errors and propagating them through the simulation model in a Monte Carlo analysis. An uncertainty factor, f(u), was derived, defined as the ratio between the concentration simulated with no errors, c(sim), and the 80th percentile concentration for the scenario. The pedotransfer function errors caused a large variation in simulation results, with f(u) ranging from 1.14 to 1440, with a median of 2.8. A non-linear relationship was found between f(u) and c(sim), which can be used to account for parameter uncertainty by correcting the simulated concentration, c(sim), to an estimated 80th percentile value. For fine-textured soils, the predictions were most sensitive to errors in the pedotransfer functions for two parameters regulating macropore flow (the saturated matrix hydraulic conductivity, K(b), and the effective diffusion pathlength, d) and two water retention function parameters (van Genuchten's N and alpha parameters). For coarse-textured soils, the model was also sensitive to errors in the exponent in the degradation water response function and the dispersivity, in addition to K(b), but showed little sensitivity to d. To reduce uncertainty in model predictions, improved pedotransfer functions for K(b), d, N and alpha would therefore be most useful.