Grey Prediction Method in Gas Emissing Quantity

Bastd on dealing with the initial data of the gas emissing quantity of mining coal face by natural logarithm,the improved grey model(1,1) is built.The improved Grey Markov prediction mode is built through uniting the improved grey model(1,1) and the Markov mode.Comparing the fitting precision of the improved grey model(1,1),the Grey Markov prediction mode and the improved Grey Markov prediction mode respectively through actual survey data in scene,it shows that the precision of the improved Grey Markov prediction mode is the best of the three and its result is correct and reliable,having certain general applicability.     

A RELIABILITY PROCESSING ALGORITHM SUITABLE FOR STOCHASTIC AND SUDDENLY VARYING DATA

In regard to stochastic and suddenly varying data,a new kind of data processor algorithm based on adaptive prediction is presented.The algorithm describes the changing pattern of measured variables by means of time series models with slowly time-varying parameters,forms the criterion by use of the adaptive and its 95% belief limit,and processes the measured data so as to reject or restrain outliers mixed in them.The simulation example indicates that the algorithm surmounts difficulties which most current algorithms encounter when processing stochastic and suddenly varying data and that it is of obvious effects.     

Research of Failure Model and Life Prediction On Heater Tubes

An experimental research on the Alkylbenzene heater tubes material which has been operated for about 100 thousand hours is carried out. In addition, the corrosion product of heater tube has been examined by using an electronic probe and probe into the corrosion Mechanism of heater tubes. Based on the fault tree analysis on the heater tubes by using the FTA technology, the paper finds the main factors affecting the failure of the heater tubes, discusses the failure model of the heater tubes, put forward the mathematical mode of life prediction and failure model of the heater tubes.     

Coal Consumption Prediction in Chongqing Municipality on the Basis of Gray System Theory

On the basis of the theory of gray system, two models have been presented to forecast the coal consumed during 2005 -2011. The comparison between coal consumption over 1995 -2002 and the prediction show that the models enjoy a high precision and are practical,and the forecast results are reliable.     

Local Nonlinear Forecasting of Short-term Power Load Forecasting

The nearest points in phase space are determined by Euclid distance in chaotic local prediction. The prediction accuracy depends on quality of the nearest points. But the shortest distance does not imply better forecasting effect. While false nearest neighboring point or high embedding dimensions appear evolvement track of some nearest neighboring point should be apart from prediction point. Because it is difficult for Euclid distance to reflect the correlation degree between the nearest points and prediction point. So the idea of combining Euclid distance with correlation degree is put forward. The method is applied to short-term electrical load forecasting. The result of load series forecasting by the presented method is more effective to improve prediction accuracy.     

Some Key Technologies and System Development of Distribution Management on Time Limited Consumable

According to the characteristic of Time Limited Consumable and feature of line in Time Limited Consumable, some key technologies of if one studied, including early warning rule of product guarantee period, real time control strategy of available sale quantity when considering products being overdue, distribution pattern integration in Time Limited Consumable, and business process reengineering. On the basis of the above study, distribution management system oriented time limited consumable is constructed and implemented for validation with good effect.     

黄河流域棉花品种产量长期预测技术的比较研究

以黄河流域棉花品种区域试验参试品种的皮棉产量为原始资料,分别应用一元线性回归、GM(1,1)及谐波分析原理和技术建立模型,对三者的模型精度、拟合程度及预测结果进行比较研究。结果表明,对于波动性较大的皮棉产量时间序列,一元线性回归及GM(1,1)模型的精度低,拟合效果差,预测值不理想;而谐波分析模型的精度高,拟合效果好,预测值准确可信,其中,4个以上谐波迭加的模型可达"一级精度",历史符合率90%～100%,可直接应用于生产实践。分别选取4,5,6,...15个谐波迭加的谐波分析模型,预测2003年黄河流域棉花品种区域试验参试品种的皮棉产量为1181.73～1288.66kg·hm 2。     

碳达峰背景下遵义市土地利用转型的生态环境效应及预测

[目的]研究土地利用转型的生态环境效应及其发展趋势,为促进土地利用转型、低碳循环发展及实现“双碳”目标提供依据。[方法]基于贵州省遵义市2005,2010,2015,2020年4期的土地利用数据,运用空间分析技术,对该区土地利用转型的生态环境效应及其发展趋势进行研究。[结果](1)2005—2020年土地转型主要表现为碳汇用地之间的相互转换,以及碳汇用地向碳源用地转型。(2)净碳排放量由2005年的5.99×10⁵ t增加到2020年的9.87×10⁶ t,增加了9.27×10⁶ t,增幅达1 548.15%。但增量却呈逐渐减少的趋势,增幅也逐渐降低。(3)遵义市生态系统服务价值量由2005年的7.64×10¹⁰元增加到2020年的7.73×10¹⁰元,呈波动上升趋势,共增加了9.14×10⁸元,增长率为1.2%。(4)通过灰色预测模型得出遵义市未来净碳排放量和生态系统服务价值量会持续增加,且都呈规律上升趋势。[结论]遵义市在生态环境方面仍面临着不小的压力...     

基于耦合PLUS-SCS模型的城市用地内涝风险预测及优化管控——以湖南省长沙市为例

[目的]预测城市未来土地利用情况及内涝风险强度,并探讨未来城市内涝风险的优化管控措施及实施效果,为提升城市内涝防控水平,优化城市用地布局提供参考依据。[方法]以湖南省长沙市为例,借助PLUS和SCS模型,预测基准情景下城市用地布局及其内涝风险情况,将内涝高风险区域作为PLUS模型中的限制转化因子,耦合PLUS和SCS模型,模拟内涝管控情景下城市用地布局及其内涝风险情况。通过对比两种情景下的内涝风险差异来验证优化管控措施实施的效益。[结果]预测基准情景下2035年长沙市建设用地内涝高风险区面积为96.47 km²,在不减少建设用地面积的前提下,内涝管控情景下城市建设用地的内涝风险总面积相比基准情景减少了36.94 km²,其中新增建设用地中的高风险区全部被规避。[结论]未来城市用地内涝风险呈现出显著增加的趋势,耦合PLUS-SCS模型的优化管控方法能够帮助城市规避内涝风险。