Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production

Ecophysiological models are widely used to forecast potential impacts of climate change on future agricultural productivity and to examine options for adaptation by local stakeholders and policy makers. However, protocols followed in such assessments vary to such an extent that they constrain cross-study syntheses and increase the potential for bias in projected impacts. We reviewed 221 peer-reviewed papers that used crop simulation models to examine diverse aspects of how climate change might affect agricultural systems. Six subject areas were examined: target crops and regions; the crop model(s) used and their characteristics; sources and application of data on [CO₂] and climate; impact parameters evaluated; assessment of variability or risk; and adaptation strategies. Wheat, maize, soybean and rice were considered in approximately 170 papers. The USA (55 papers) and Europe (64 papers) were the dominant regions studied. The most frequent approach used to simulate response to CO₂ involved adjusting daily radiation use efficiency (RUE) and transpiration, precluding consideration of the interacting effects of CO₂, stomatal conductance and canopy temperature, which are expected to exacerbate effects of global warming. The assumed baseline [CO₂] typically corresponded to conditions 10-30 years earlier than the date the paper was accepted, exaggerating the relative impacts of increased [CO₂]. Due in part to the diverse scenarios for increases in greenhouse gas emissions, assumed future [CO₂] also varied greatly, further complicating comparisons among studies. Papers considering adaptation predominantly examined changes in planting dates and cultivars; only 20 papers tested different tillage practices or crop rotations. Risk was quantified in over half the papers, mainly in relation to variability in yield or effects of water deficits, but the limited consideration of other factors affecting risk beside climate change per se suggests that impacts of climate change were overestimated relative to background variability. A coordinated crop, climate and soil data resource would allow researchers to focus on underlying science. More extensive model intercomparison, facilitated by modular software, should strengthen the biological realism of predictions and clarify the limits of our ability to forecast agricultural impacts of climate change on crop production and associated food security as well as to evaluate potential for adaptation.     

Responses of time of anthesis and maturity to sowing dates and infrared warming in spring wheat

Reliable prediction of the potential impacts of global warming on agriculture requires accurate data on crop responses to elevated temperatures. Controlled environments can precisely regulate temperature but may impose unrealistic radiation, photoperiod and humidity regimes. Infrared warming with automatic control of temperature rise has shown potential for warming field plots above ambient temperatures, while avoiding such biases. In a field experiment conducted at Maricopa, AZ, we assessed the utility of a temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) approach by comparing phenology of wheat from a series of six sowing date treatments using T-FACE and an additional nine sowing dates that exposed crops to an exceptionally wide range of air temperatures (<0 °C to >40 °C). The T-FACE treatments were intended to achieve a warming of +1.5 °C during the daytime and +3.0 °C at night; the achieved warming averaged +1.3 °C during daytime and +2.8 °C at night. T-FACE and sowing date treatments had large effects on phenology. A regression-based analysis of simulations with the CSM-CROPSIM-CERES model showed that effects of T-FACE on phenology were similar to what would be expected from equivalent changes in air temperature. However, systematic deviations from the expected 1-to-1 relation suggested that assumed cardinal temperatures for phenology should be revised. Based on the single cultivar and location, it appeared that the base temperature for emergence to anthesis should be reduced from 0 °C to −5 °C, whereas the base temperature for grain filling should be increased from 0 °C to 4 °C and the optimal temperature, from 30 °C to 34 °C. Both T-FACE and extreme sowing date treatments proved valuable for improving understanding of high temperature effects on plant processes, as required for accurate prediction of crop responses to elevated temperatures under climate change.     

Optimization of ultrasonic-assisted extraction for herbicidal activity of chicory root extracts

The present study evaluated the herbicidal potential of extracts from chicory (Cichorium intybus L.) roots on the germination of Echinochloa crusgalli L. Beauv and Amaranthus retroflexus L. Eight ultrasonic assisted-extraction (UAE) conditions were optimized, using an orthogonal matrix design. The extract concentrations that would yield the largest allelopathic effects on the plant species were estimated by a modeling analysis. Our results showed that an alcohol solvent extract of chicory root had significant herbicidal activity which depended on the extract concentrations and the target species. The half-inhibitory concentrations of crude extract of chicory root ranged from 0.5 g l⁻¹ to 40.5 g l⁻¹. At a frequency of 40 kHz, the optimum UAE conditions to produce an extract for use as herbicide against E. crusgalli L. included an ethanol content (Ec) of 50% (v/v), a solvent-to-solid ratio (SR) of 16:1, an ultrasound temperature (UT) of 35 °C, an impregnation time (Imt) of 24 h with two rounds of impregnation (Imr), a sonication period (St) of 120 min with two rounds of sonication (Sr) and an ultrasound input power (P) of 200 W. The optimum conditions to produce an extract for use against A. retroflexus L. included an Ec of 100% (v/v), a SR of 16:1, an UT of 20 °C, an Imt of 48 h with two Imr, a St of 30 min with one Sr and a P of 400 W. The extract had the largest inhibitory effects on the germination index and root growth of both E. crusgalli L. and A. retroflexus L. at concentrations ranging from 30.8 to 33.7 g l⁻¹. At a concentration of 4.2 g l⁻¹, the extract significantly enhanced the shoot growth of A. retroflexus L. Overall, chicory root extract has potential for use as a main ingredient in natural herbicides or for development as a novel plant-derived herbicide.     

Crop water use indicators to quantify the flexible phenology of quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) in response to drought stress

Models can play an important role in agricultural planning and management. Thermal time accumulation is a common way of describing phenological development in crop models, but the sensitivity of this concept to water stress is rarely quantified. The effect of pre-anthesis droughts on the timing of anthesis and physiological maturity was assessed for quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) var. ‘Santa Maria’, with the help of two field experiments (2005–2006 and 2006–2007) in the central Bolivian Altiplano. Various treatments with different sowing dates and irrigation applications were considered. To evaluate the effect of drought stress on crop development, drought stress during the first 60 days after sowing was assessed with three different stress indicators: the number of days that the soil water content of the root zone was above a threshold, the average relative transpiration, and the sum of daily actual transpiration, standardized for reference evapotranspiration (∑(T_a/ET₀)). The best indicator to quantify the effect of pre-anthesis drought stress on phenological development was ∑(T_a/ET₀) cumulated until 60 days after sowing. This indicator showed a significant logarithmic relation with the time to anthesis and time to physiological maturity. Correlations of the drought stress indicator with thermal time accumulation were better than with calendar time accumulation. Due to an effect of post-anthesis droughts, the correlations of the drought stress indicator with the time to anthesis were stronger than with the time to physiological maturity. It was also demonstrated that deficit irrigation can contribute to a better agricultural planning due to a better control of the phenological development of quinoa. The proposed relations can be used for modeling phenological development of quinoa in drought prone regions and for efficient deficit irrigation planning.     

铲运机装载作业最小能耗轨迹研究

将铲运机装载作业部分处理成机械手模型系统,通过对装载过程中作用在机械手末端执行器－－铲斗切削边缘的作用力分析及轨迹分析,定义了最小能耗轨迹,通过运动学分析,找到了最小能耗轨迹。铲斗跟随上轨迹,系统消耗能量最小,生产效率更高。最小能耗轨迹对铲运机总体参数设计、工作装置设计、轨迹规划及操作控制方法确定等具有重要的理论和实际意义。     

Use of landscape pattern metrics and multiscale data in aquatic species distribution models: a case study of a freshwater mussel

The distributions of freshwater mussels are controlled by landscape factors operating at multiple spatial scales. Changes in land use/land cover (LULC) have been implicated in severe population declines and range contractions of freshwater mussels across North America. Despite widespread recognition of multiscale influences few studies have addressed these issues when developing distribution models. Furthermore, most studies have disregarded the role of landscape pattern in regulating aquatic species distributions, focusing only on landscape composition. In this study, the distribution of Rabbitsfoot (Quadrula cylindrica) in the upper Green River system (Ohio River drainage) is modeled with environmental variables from multiple scales: subcatchment, riparian buffer, and reach buffer. Four types of landscape environment metrics are used, including: LULC pattern, LULC composition, soil composition, and geology composition. The study shows that LULC pattern metrics are very useful in modeling the distribution of Rabbitsfoot. Together with LULC compositional metrics, pattern metrics permit a more detailed analysis of functional linkages between aquatic species distributions and landscape structure. Moreover, the inclusion of multiple spatial scales is necessary to accurately model the hierarchical processes in stream systems. Geomorphic features play important roles in regulating species distributions at intermediate and large scales while LULC variables appear more influential at proximal scales.     

基于数据约束的植物叶柄三维形态交互建模方法

提出了一种基于真实数据并保持原始参数不变的植物叶柄器官建模方法。首先通过叶柄长度、叶柄半径参数建立柄的三维模型,并加入表面绒毛的模拟以增强真实感;为了丰富模型的形态,提出了基于交互的形态调整方法,该方法以关节链及逆向运动学为基础,辅以误差补偿算法,使交互调整过程中模型的原始参数(长度、半径)保持不变。试验结果表明,该方法可以快速、灵活地构建出叶柄器官的三维形态,具有较好的真实感效果,且变形过程中参数的变化很小。     

Simulation of nitrogen leaching from a fertigated crop rotation in a Mediterranean climate using the EU-Rotate_N and Hydrus-2D models

Two different modeling approaches were used to simulate the N leached during an intensively fertigated crop rotation: a recently developed crop-based simulation model (EU-Rotate_N) and a widely recognized solute transport model (Hydrus-2D). Model performance was evaluated using data from an experiment where four N fertigation levels were applied to a bell pepper-cauliflower-Swiss chard rotation in a sandy loam soil. All the input data were obtained from measurements, transfer functions or were included in the model databases. Model runs were without specific site calibration. The use of soil input parameters based on the same pedotransfer functions in both models resulted in a very similar simulation of soil water content in spite of the different nature of the approaches. Good correlations were found between the simulated water draining below 60 cm and that calculated by water balance. Accuracy of the predicted nitrate nitrogen (NO₃-N) contents in the 0-90 cm soil profile was acceptable with both models, with values of the mean absolute error (MAE) below the average standard deviation of the observations. The uptake of nitrate was better simulated with EU-Rotate_N where specific crop N demand algorithms are involved. In the simulations with Hydrus-2D the evapotranspiration demand was a limiting factor for N uptake, resulting in an increasing underestimation of uptake with decreasing N fertilizer rates. Simulated N leaching below a depth of 60 cm was higher with Hydrus-2D due to a higher nitrate concentration in percolated water. Comparison of the observed and predicted yield response to N applications with EU-Rotate_N demonstrated that the best fertigation strategy could be identified and the risk of nitrate leaching quantified with this model. The results showed that for a successful solving of the problem studied, Hydrus-2D probably would need a more complex calibration, and that the EU-Rotate_N model can provide acceptable predictions by adjusting basic parameters for the growing conditions. Further research with other crops and soil types will allow up-scaling the quantification of N leaching from a field level to regional and national levels, identifying best management strategies in relation to N use from an environmental and economic perspective.     

Validation of a dust production model from measurements performed in semi-arid agricultural areas of Spain and Niger

Models of two processes (saltation and sandblasting) that lead to fine dust release in arid areas have recently been combined to form a dust production model (DPM), the physical bases of which are summarized. In order to validate DPM at field scale, its predictions in terms of horizontal and vertical mass fluxes are compared to direct measurements made in natural conditions on a silt loam soil in north–east Spain during Wind Erosion and Loss of SOil Nutrients in semi-arid Spain (WELSONS) experiment and a sandy soil in Niger during the PROgramme Soil and Erosion (PROSE) experiment. In the Spanish case, due to the formation of a coalescing crust after rainfall, a limited supply of loose particles on the soil surface restricts the availability of soil aggregates for saltation. Once this supply limitation is taken into account in the saltation submodel, the vertical fluxes, predicted by DPM with the binding energies previously determined in a wind tunnel experiment, agree well with the measured ones. In the Niger case, the agreement is found to be directly satisfactory for unlimited saltation, even in crusted conditions. However, in order to retrieve measured vertical fluxes, the aggregate binding energies that constitute key factors involved in the sandblasting computation must be divided by 3. These results validate the sandblasting part of DPM but show that saltation has to be adequately tuned when a coalescing crust forms on loamy soils. These results also show that the potential of soil for fine-dust production does not increase with its clay content which rather tends to slightly reduce sandblasting efficiencies. A high clay content favours formation of a coalescing crust that efficiently traps formerly loose soil aggregates. The supply limitation resulting from this crust formation controls the importance of saltation, and hence, of fine-dust production. Finally, saltation clearly appears as the limiting factor for fine-dust production.     

水泵叶轮的计算机三维实体造型研究

从计算机辅助设计（ＣＡＤ）与辅助制造（ＣＡＭ）的角度，分析了直接在计算机中进行水泵地轮三维实体造型的必要性，提出了具体的三维实体造型方法，给出了造型的步骤及造型实例，编制了造型函数库。