GM(1,1)建模机理与应用条件分析及其改进方法

GM(1,1)拟合的原始序列为非负齐次指数函数,对任何呈指数变化的序列x(k),可采用x~(0)(k)=x(k)—M或x~(0)(k)=M—x(k)将其转换为非负齐次指数函数变化。GM(1,1)建模的背景值生成Z~(1)=xx~(1)(k)+(1—α)x~(1)(k+1),应满足α=1/α—1/(e~0—1)。当|α|较小时,α非常接近0.5,但当|α|较大时,α偏离0.5值较大,这是在|α|较大时GM(1,1)传统建模方法失效的原因。文中基于建模机理与应用条件的分析,提出了改进的计算方法。     

Effect of temperature on metabolic activity of intact microbial communities: Evidence for altered metabolic pathway activity but not for increased maintenance respiration and reduced carbon use efficiency

We used metabolic tracers and modeling to analyze the response of soil metabolism to a sudden change in temperature from 4 to 20 °C. We hypothesized that intact soil microbial communities would exhibit shifts in pentose phosphate pathway and glycolysis activity in the same way as is regularly observed for individual microorganisms in pure culture. We also hypothesized that increased maintenance respiration at higher temperature would result in greater energy production and reduced carbon use efficiency (CUE). Two hours after temperature increase, respiration increased almost 10-fold. Although all metabolic processes were increased, the relative activity of metabolic processes, biosynthesis, and energy production changed. Pentose phosphate pathway was reduced (17-20%), while activities of specific steps in glycolysis (51%) and Krebs cycle (7-13%) were increased. In contrast, only small but significant changes in biosynthesis (+2%), ATP production (−3%) and CUE (+2%) were observed. In a second experiment, we compared the metabolic responses to temperature increases in soils from high and low elevation. The shift in activity from pentose phosphate pathway to glycolysis with higher temperature was confirmed in both soils, but the responses of Krebs cycle, biosynthesis, ATP production, and CUE were site dependent. Our results indicate that 1) in response to temperature, communities behave biochemically similarly to single species and, 2) our understanding of temperature effects on CUE, energy production and use for maintenance and growth processes is still incomplete.     

Spatial-temporal patterns in Mediterranean carnivore road casualties: Consequences for mitigation

Many carnivores have been seriously impacted by the expansion of transportation systems and networks; however we know little about carnivore response to the extent and magnitude of road mortality, or which age classes may be disproportionately impacted. Recent research has demonstrated that wildlife-vehicle-collisions (WVC) involving carnivores are modulated by temporal and spatial factors. Thus, we investigated road mortality on a guild of small and medium-sized carnivores in southern Portugal using road-kill data obtained from a systematic 36 months monitoring period along highways (260 km) and national roads (314 km) by addressing the following questions: (a) which species and age class are most vulnerable to WVC? (b) are there temporal and/or spatial patterns in road-kill? and (c) which life-history and/or spatial factors influence the likelihood of collisions? We recorded a total of 806 carnivore casualties, which represented an average of 47 ind./100 km/year. Red fox and stone marten had the highest mortality rates. Our findings highlight three key messages: (1) the majority of road-killed individuals were adults of common species; (2) all carnivores, except genets, were more vulnerable during specific life-history phenological periods: higher casualties were observed when red fox and stone marten were provisioning young, Eurasian badger casualties occurred more frequently during dispersal, and higher Egyptian mongoose mortality occurred during the breeding period; and (3) modeling demonstrated that favorable habitat, curves in the road, and low human disturbance were major contributors to the deadliest road segments. Red fox carcasses were more likely to be found on road sections with passages distant from urban areas. Conversely, stone marten mortalities were found more often on national roads with high of cork oak woodland cover; Egyptian mongoose and genet road-kills were found more often on road segments close to curves. Based on our results, two key mitigation measures should help to reduce WVC in Portugal. The first involves the improvement of existing crossings with buried and small mesh size fence to guide the individuals towards to the passages, in road segments with high traffic volume (>1200 vehicles/night) and located in preferred carnivore habitats. The second mitigation involves cutting or removal of dense vegetation in verges of road segments with curves to aid motorists in seeing animals about to cross.     

Cotton responses to ultraviolet-B radiation: experimentation and algorithm development

The potential impact of an increase in solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation due to human activity on higher plants has been the subject of many studies. Little work has been carried out so far on cotton responses to enhanced UV-B radiation. The objective of this study was to determine whether or not the current and projected increases in UV-B levels affect cotton growth and development, and to quantify and develop UV-B radiation functional algorithms that can be used in simulation models. Two experiments were conducted during the summer of 2001 using sunlit plant growth chambers in a wide range of UV-B radiations under optimal growing conditions. Leaves exposed to UV-B radiation developed chlorotic and necrotic patches depending on the intensity and length of exposure. Along with changes in visible morphology, cotton canopy photosynthesis declined with increased UV-B radiation. The decline in canopy photosynthesis was partly due to loss of photosynthetic pigments and UV-B-induced decay of leaf-level photosynthetic efficiency (maximum photosynthesis) and capacity (quantum yield) as the leaves aged. The total leaf area was less due to smaller leaves and fewer leaves per plant. Less plant height was closely related to a shorter average internode length rather than a fewer mainstem nodes. The UV-B did not affect cotton major developmental events such as time taken to square, time to flower, and leaf addition rates on the mainstem. Lower biomass was closely related to both smaller leaf area and lower photosynthesis. The critical limit, defined as 90% of optimum or the control, for stem elongation was lower (8.7 kJ m⁻² per day UV-B) than the critical limit for leaf expansion (11.2 kJ m⁻² per day UV-B), indicating that stem elongation was more sensitive to UV-B than leaf expansion. The critical limits for canopy photosynthesis and total dry weight were 7 and 7.3 kJ m⁻² per day, respectively. The identified UV-B-specific indices for stem and leaf growth and photosynthesis parameters may be incorporated into cotton simulation models such as GOSSYM to predict yields under present and future climatic conditions.     

Simulation of land use impacts on groundwater levels and streamflow in a Virginia watershed

Increase in withdrawal and decrease in recharge of groundwater due to urbanization influences subsurface flow regimes. The overall objective of this study was to determine the impact of land development activities on the subsurface flow regime in the Upper Roanoke River Watershed (URRW). A regional groundwater model of the URRW was constructed using Modular Three-Dimensional Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW) and calibrated for steady-state conditions. Then, eight land use management scenarios were simulated on the Back Creek (BC) subwatershed to assess the impacts of residential density, residential location, and land-cover on hydraulic head of groundwater and streamflow. The average recharge output from the Hydrological Simulation Program, FORTRAN (HSPF) simulation was used as the direct input to MODFLOW to take changes in land use into account in the BC watershed. Development of agriculture and forest areas with low-population density on larger area (low-density scenario), near the middle of the watershed (mid-section scenario), and with changes all open space to lawn (lawn scenario) had greatest overall impact on the BC watershed for both hydraulic head and streamflow among density, location, and land-cover scenarios, respectively. The simulated scenarios indicated that decreases in both hydraulic head and streamflow coincided with the increases in impervious land. The reductions in hydraulic head and streamflow were restricted to the subwatershed where land use changes occurred. The urbanization impacts on both surface and subsurface regimes were very local with 20.8 cm of maximum difference in local hydraulic head and 0.532% of maximum percent difference in local streamflow at lawn scenario while average corresponding values through BC watershed was 4.3 cm and 0.153%, respectively. Use of a fully distributed surface model in a dynamic manner was recommended to solve the inconsistencies in the spatial and temporal scale of surface and groundwater models. However, the proposed approach can be used as a management and planning tool for evaluating the local and overall impacts of land use management on the surface and subsurface flow regimes.     

非统计在林火蔓延趋势建模中的粗差探测应用

将非统计理论引入林火蔓延趋势的建模实践中,通过非统计理论,针对林火蔓延趋势建模的小量数据,找出数据中存在的粗差,为后续的建模做好准备。结果表明,非统计理论对于小数据研究对象的粗差探测实用性强,有统计理论不可比拟的优势。     

Comparative performance of fixed-film biological filters: Application of reactor theory

Nitrification is classified as a two-step consecutive reaction where R₁ represents the rate of formation of the intermediate product NO₂-N and R₂ represents the rate of formation of the final product NO₃-N. The relative rates of R₁ and R₂ are influenced by reactor type characterized hydraulically as plug-flow, plug-flow with dispersion and mixed-flow. We develop substrate conversion models for fixed-film biofilters operating in the first-order kinetic regime based on application of chemical reactor theory. Reactor type, inlet conditions and the biofilm kinetic constants K_i (h⁻¹) are used to predict changes in NH₄-N, NO₂-N, NO₃-N and BOD_5. The inhibiting effects of the latter on R₁ and R₂ were established based on the γ relation, e.g.:

where BOD_5,max is the concentration that causes nitrification to cease and N is a variable relating K_i to increasing BOD₅. Conversion models were incorporated in spreadsheet programs that provided steady-state concentrations of nitrogen and BOD₅ at several points in a recirculating aquaculture system operating with input values for fish feed rate, reactor volume, microscreen performance, make-up and recirculating flow rates. When rate constants are standardized, spreadsheet use demonstrates plug-flow reactors provide higher rates of R₁ and R₂ than mixed-flow reactors thereby reducing volume requirements for target concentrations of NH₄-N and NO₂-N. The benefit provided by the plug-flow reactor varies with hydraulic residence time t as well as the effective vessel dispersion number, D/μL. Both reactor types are capable of providing net increases in NO₂-N during treatment but the rate of decrease in the mixed-flow case falls well behind that predicted for plug-flow operation. We show the potential for a positive net change in NO₂-N increases with decreases in the dimensionless ratios K_2,(R2)/K_1,(R1) and [NO₂-N]/[NH₄-N] and when the product K_1,(R1)t provides low to moderate NH₄-N conversions. Maintaining high levels of the latter reduces the effective reactor utilization rate (%) defined here as (RN_avg/RN_max)100 where RN_avg is the mean reactive nitrogen concentration ([NH₄-N] + [NO₂-N]) within the reactor, and RN_max represents the feed concentration of the same. Low utilization rates provide a hedge against unexpected increases in substrate loading and reduce water pumping requirements but force use of elevated reactor volumes. Further γ effects on R₁ and R₂ can be reduced through use of a tanks-in-series versus a single mixed-flow reactor configuration and by improving the solids removal efficiency of microscreen treatment.     

Modeling responses of dryland spring triticale,proso millet and foxtail millet to initial soil water in the High Plains

Dryland farming strategies in the High Plains must make efficient use of limited and variable precipitation and stored water in the soil profile for stable and sustainable farm productivity. Current research efforts focus on replacing summer fallow in the region with more profitable and environmentally sustainable spring and summer crops. In the absence of reliable precipitation forecasts for the crop growing season, farmers rely mainly upon knowledge of plant available water (PAW) in the soil profile at planting for making crop choice decisions. To develop a decision support strategy for crop selection based on initial PAW, experiments were conducted with spring triticale (XTiticosecale Wittmack), proso millet (Panicum miliaceum L.), and foxtail millet (Setaria italica L. Beauv.) under artificially controlled Low, Medium, and High initial PAW levels during 2004 and 2005 at Akron, Colorado, and Sidney, Nebraska. The objectives of this study were to adapt an existing cropping systems model for the simulation of triticale and millet and to evaluate simulations from the adapted model by comparing results with field data collected under varying initial PAW conditions. The Root Zone Water Quality Model with DSSAT v4.0 crop growth modules (RZWQM2) was used. Specifically, the Cropping System Model (CSM)–CERES–Wheat module was adapted for simulating triticale, and CSM–CERES–Sorghum (v4.0) module was adapted for simulating proso millet and foxtail millet. Soil water, leaf area index, grain yield, and biomass data for the highest PAW treatment from one crop season for each of the three crops were used to adapt and calibrate the crop modules. The models were then evaluated with data from the remaining PAW treatments. The proso millet module was further tested with four years of data from a crop rotation experiment at Akron from 2003 to 2006. Simulation results indicated that the adapted and calibrated crop modules have the potential to simulate these new crops under a range of varying water availability conditions. Consequently, these models can aid in the development of decision support tools for the season-to-season management of these summer fallow replacement crops under dryland conditions in semi-arid environments.