河套灌区粮食作物分层种植超吨粮田小气候生态效应研究

本文采用一元二次回归分析方法，对黄河河套灌区超吨粮田不同层次的光温风分布状况进行了定量分析，求算了三因子在不同层次的最佳指标值Ｘ１及其相应的期望产量值Ｙ＿（ｍａｘ）。鉴于植株２／３处光温风分布综合反映了群体结构的生产潜力，故组建了２／３层次的多元非线性复合小气候效应模型。给出了亩产１２５０．０公斤的超吨粮理论指标。指出实现这一理论产量的关键，是广泛推广玉米催芽栽培技术。     

Distribution and properties of geographically distinct isolates of sugar beet yellowing viruses

From a total of 261 yellow sugarbeet leaves collected from 10 countries representing three continents, the incidence and distribution of strains of Beet mild yellowing virus (BMYV), Beet chlorosis virus (BChV) and Beet yellows virus (BYV) were analysed using serological and molecular methods. BMYV was found in all countries except Greece, and more frequently in the northern and western areas of Europe, whereas BYV predominated in Turkey, Spain, Greece, the USA and Chile. BChV, originally found in the USA and the UK in 1989, was identified in France, Spain, the Netherlands and Chile. Nine sugar beet poleroviruses, plus a reference isolate of Turnip yellows virus (TuYV, syn. Beet western yellows virus ), were further characterized and compared. Isolates obtained from sugar beet infected this species, but not oilseed rape or lettuce; all isolates except one infected Capsella bursa-pastoris . The coat-protein sequences of these isolates were highly similar, with the consensus sequence representing 89% of nucleotide residues. Within the coat-protein gene, two regions were identified that could represent specific epitopes to which monoclonal antibody BYDV-PAV-IL-1 could bind; this antibody is used to distinguish beet poleroviruses in ELISA. Comparison of the sequences at the 5' end showed that sequence homology existed only between isolates with the same host range. The first sequence data of polerovirus isolates from Chile are presented, showing that the coat protein and the 5' end of their genomes are highly similar to those of BMYV isolates found in Europe. Chilean polerovirus isolates may have been imported from the northern hemisphere in sugar beet breeding material.     

甘肃秦王川灌区土壤盐分特征及次生盐渍化预测

在秦王川灌区水文地质条件和土壤盐分含量特征调查研究的基础上,采用有限差分法建立了预测模型,对灌溉实施后1～5年间地下水位及其埋深变化进行了预测。结果表明,地下水位呈普遍抬升趋势,可导致约2000ha土地产生次生盐渍化。如果不及时采取防治措施,土壤次生盐渍化面积还会进一步扩大。     

Transmission of classical swine fever virus within herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this paper, we describe the transmission of Classical Swine Fever virus (CSF virus) within herds during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. In seven herds where the infection started among individually housed breeding stock, all breeding pigs had been tested for antibodies to CSF virus shortly before depopulation. Based upon these data, the transmission of CSF virus between pigs was described as exponential growth in time with a parameter r, that was estimated at 0.108 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.060–0.156). The accompanying per-generation transmission (expressed as the basic reproduction ratio, R₀) was estimated at 2.9. Based upon this characterisation, a calculation method was derived with which serological findings at depopulation can be used to calculate the period in which the virus was with a certain probability introduced into that breeding stock. This model was used to estimate the period when the virus had been introduced into 34 herds where the infection started in the breeding section. Of these herds, only a single contact with a herd previously infected had been traced. However, in contrast with the seven previously mentioned herds, only a sample of the breeding pigs had been tested before depopulation (as was the common procedure during the epidemic). The observed number of days between the single contact with an infected herd and the day of sampling of these 34 herds fitted well in the model. Thus, we concluded that the model and transmission parameter was in agreement with the transmission between breeding pigs in these herds.

Because of the limited sample size and because it was usually unknown in which specific pen the infection started, we were unable to estimate transmission parameters for weaned piglets and finishing pigs from the data collected during the epidemic. However, from the results of controlled experiments in which R₀ was estimated as 81 between weaned piglets and 14 between heavy finishing pigs (Laevens et al., 1998a. Vet. Quart. 20, 41–45; Laevens et al., 1999. Ph.D. Thesis), we constructed a simple model to describe the transmission of CSF virus in compartments (rooms) housing finishing pigs and weaned piglets. From the number of pens per compartment, the number of pigs per pen, the numbers of pigs tested for antibodies to CSF virus and the distribution of the seropositive pigs in the compartment, this model gives again a period in which the virus most probably entered the herd. Using the findings in 41 herds where the infection started in the section of the finishers or weaned piglets of the age of 8 weeks or older, and of which only a single contact with a herd previously infected was known, there was no reason to reject the model. Thus, we concluded that the transmission between weaned piglets and finishing pigs during the epidemic was not significantly different from the transmission observed in the experiments.     

Use of Akaike information criteria for model selection and inference. An application to assess prevention of gastrointestinal parasitism and respiratory mortality of Guinean goats in Kolda,Senegal

A field experiment was carried out in Kolda (southern Senegal) from July 1986 to July 1988. Its goals were to: (1) describe the patterns of mortality of female Guinean goats by age, season and year; (2) assess preventive measures against respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal parasitism in reducing mortality; and (3) estimate the overall impact of these measures on survival to 1 year of age. Preventive measures for respiratory disease included vaccination against peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and pneumonic pasteurellosis (Pasteurella multocida types A and D). Control of gastrointestinal parasites was by deworming does with morantel (7.5 mg kg⁻¹, three times during the rainy season). The effects of vaccines and deworming were tested in a randomised factorial field experiment with villages being the experimental units. A total of 19 villages, 113 goat herds and 1458 goats were included in the study.

Generalised linear models of survival for five cohorts of goats (defined by five different birth seasons) used a binomial assumption for the response distribution and a complementary log–log link. Explanatory variables included age, season, year, vaccination, deworming and their interactions. A complex a priori model was built on the basis of previous epidemiological knowledge; a purposively selected set of simpler models was compared to this full model by the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and derived statistics. Inference on 1-year survival and treatment effects accounted for model-selection uncertainty. It was carried out with a bootstrap procedure and used information from the whole set of selected models.

Large variations in mortality by year and season were observed but no regular seasonal pattern was apparent. Mortality probabilities of kids in dewormed groups decreased quickly after birth, but remained elevated up to 9 months of age in the non-dewormed groups. Deworming lowered the risk of mortality. Vaccination alone was not protective (except during an observed outbreak of PPR).     

CARDIOVASCULAR AND GASTROINTESTINAL RADIOGRAPHIC CONTRAST STUDIES IN THE HORSESHOE CRAB (LIMULUS POLYPHEMUS)

Survey and contrast radiographic studies of the cardiovascular and gastrointestinal systems of the American horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) were undertaken using conventional and flouroscopic techniques. Normal gastrointestinal and cardiovascular structures were difficult to resolve on survey radiographs, but were well visualized with gastrointestinal follow through studies and angiography, respectively. All three contrast agents (iohexol, Gastrografin, and barium sulfate) used for the gastrointestinal studies varied minimally in their radiographic quality and transit times, and all appeared to be safe for use in the horseshoe crab.     

Development and evaluation of a model for prediction of fecal and urinary nitrogen excretions in cattle

The reduction of nitrogen (N) excretion in animal production is crucial in intensive farming systems particularly in the developed countries. In this study, a model to predict N excretion in cattle was developed based on existing feeding standards and evaluated using independent N balance experiments for Holstein steers and lactating cows and Japanese Black (JB) steers. Although model predictions for fecal and urinary N excretions appeared to be close to observed values in plot figures, statistical analysis showed that the model tended to over-predict both fecal and urinary N excretions, especially in Holstein lactating cows. This was because body weight changes of cows during lactation period were not considered in the model due to the lack of information (i.e., body weight gain or loss) available in the experimental data for evaluation. There were large mean bias and small line bias for urinary N prediction, but reverse results were obtained for fecal N prediction. The largest mean square prediction errors for both N excretions were due to random variation in all cases. When all data were pooled (combined), the accuracy for predictions for fecal N excretion was considerably high (r² = 0.94), indicating that the model may predict fecal N excretion beyond breeds, sexes and physiological states (growing and lactating). More information and accumulated data will be required to predict urinary N excretion under a wide range of genotype and environmental situation.     

Intraspecific Relationship of Plasmopara halstedii Isolates Differing in Pathogenicity and Geographic Origin Based on ITS Sequence Data

Sequence parts of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of nuclear ribosomal DNA were analysed to screen for the intraspecific variability of a non-coding genomic region in 15 Plasmopara halstedii populations of different pathotype and geographic origin. Samples revealed uniformity in a ca. 790 Bp fragment comprising of the ITS-1, 5.8S and front parts of the ITS-2. In contrast, clear differences were found in a ca. 810 Bp fragment of the ITS-2 thus allowing differentiation between populations of pathotype 100, 310 and 330 and a group of populations representing pathotypes 700, 701, 703, 710 and 730. Samples of pathotypes 700 to730 originated from Slovakia, France, and Germany, but were uniform in both ITS sequence parts, thus indicating very recent origin of these highly aggressive physiological races. The potential use of ITS sequences for pathotype differentiation and phylogenetic studies in P. halstedii is discussed.     

Role of Aeciospores in Outbreaks of Pea (Pisum sativum) Rust (Uromyces fabae)

Aeciospores in Uromyces fabae were found to be repeating spores and play an important role in pea rust outbreaks in the North Eastern Plain Zone (NEPZ) of India. Experiments conducted on pea rust from 2001 to 2004 revealed the dominance of aeciospores at all growth stages of pea in this region. Urediospore production was erratic and was only observed in a few samples of stems and tendrils (5–10%). Inoculation of pea plants either by aeciospores or urediospores resulted in the production of aeciospores. Production of aeciospores was observed at a temperature range of 10–25 °C, with a maximum at 25 ± 2 °C. Among the different growth stages of pea, the pod formation stage was highly susceptible and produced the maximum number (744) of aecidia/leaf at 20–25 °C. Significant effects of growth stages and temperature were also noticed for pustule number. Urediospore production mainly coincided with the senescence of the pea plants. Maximum germination (2%) of aeciospores was observed at 25 °C, whereas maximum urediospore germination (3.5%) was at 15 °C. Temperatures > 15 °C decreased urediospore germination. A relative humidity (RH) of 100% was favourable for aeciospore germination while 98% RH favoured urediospore germination. Typical histo-pathological behaviour of the aeciospores was observed.     

Comparison of the Sensitivity of Landscape-fire-succession Models to Variation in Terrain, Fuel Pattern, Climate and Weather

The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer & wetter, and warmer & drier) and weather (year-to-year variability) was determined for four existing landscape-fire-succession models (EMBYR, FIRESCAPE, LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) and a new model implemented in the LAMOS modelling shell (LAMOS(DS)). Sensitivity was measured as the variance in area burned explained by each of the four factors, and all of the interactions amongst them, in a standard generalised linear modelling analysis. Modelled area burned was most sensitive to climate and variation in weather, with four models sensitive to each of these factors and three models sensitive to their interaction. Models generally exhibited a trend of increasing area burned from observed, through warmer and wetter, to warmer and drier climates with a 23-fold increase in area burned, on average, from the observed to the warmer, drier climate. Area burned was sensitive to terrain for FIRESCAPE and fuel pattern for EMBYR. These results demonstrate that the models are generally more sensitive to variation in climate and weather as compared with terrain complexity and fuel pattern, although the sensitivity to these latter factors in a small number of models demonstrates the importance of representing key processes. The models that represented fire ignition and spread in a relatively complex fashion were more sensitive to changes in all four factors because they explicitly simulate the processes that link these factors to area burned. The US Government's and the Canadian Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license is acknowledged