可持续发展产业政策评估的基本概念研究

为适应可持续发展由观念战略再行动的转变需要,以可持续发展产业政策评在结构为依据,制定,调整和完善可持续发展产业政策,具有十分重要的现实意义和战略意义,通过可持续发展,产业政策,评估以及它们复合而成的可持续发展产业政策评估概念的界定和分析,为评估机理研究,评估标准建立,评估指标体系构建和评估方法选择等后续评估工作提供了理论依据。     

防治水稻白背飞虱高毒农药替代药剂的室内筛选及对吡虫啉的抗性风险评估

 为筛选高毒农药的替代药剂,采用稻茎浸渍法测定了7类共21种杀虫剂对2006年和2007年采自南京市江浦地区的白背飞虱种群3龄若虫的毒力。结果表明,噻虫嗪、吡虫啉、噻嗪酮对白背飞虱3龄若虫的毒力最高(LC50=004~026 mg/L);烯啶虫胺、丁烯氟虫腈、吡蚜酮、啶虫咪、氯噻啉、毒死蜱、氟虫腈等也有较高的毒力(LC50＜4.50 mg/L）;异丙威、敌敌畏虽然触杀毒力稍低(LC50＞19.85 mg/L),但两者在生产上仍广泛应用,所以把以上12种药剂作为田间药效试验的推荐品种;同时还比较了该地区白背飞虱种群对供试药剂敏感性的年度间差异,其中对毒死蜱、异丙威、丁硫克百威、速灭威这4种药剂的敏感性下降了66.7%~71.4%。对2006年南京江浦种群用吡虫啉连续筛选15代的结果表明,1~15代抗性上升433倍,抗性现实遗传力为0.2295,存在抗性风险。另外,还讨论了白背飞虱的综合防治。     

基于光谱参数估算滴灌小麦干物质氮肥偏生产力和农学效率

为了解应用遥感技术估测滴灌小麦氮肥利用效率的可行性,以新春17号、新春6号和新春22号为材料,通过大田试验,分析了不同施氮处理下小麦干物质氮肥偏生产力(RDN)和干物质氮肥农学效率(DMA En)与光谱参数的相关关系,并建立小麦RDN和DMAEn的光谱参数估算模型.结果表明,在分蘖、抽穗和开花期RDN与绿度植被指数和比值植被指数呈极显著正相关,在拔节和抽穗期DMAEn与土壤调整比值植被指数和归一化差值植被指数呈显著正相关.光谱参数估算模型的均方根误差为7.64～33.31,说明利用光谱参数可以有效地估算小麦氮肥利用效率.     

转基因植物非预期效应检测评价技术的发展

检测和评价转基因植物非预期效应是转基因植物安全评价不可或缺的重要内容之一。介绍了转基因植物非预期效应的定义、成因及其检测评价技术的发展,指出了转基因植物非预期效应检测评价技术的难点和存在的问题。阐述了基因芯片分析技术在检测和评价转基因植物非预期效应中的应用前景,特别介绍了转基因植物在不同发育阶段和生长条件下差异表达基因的分布模型,并提出了利用基因芯片分析技术,从差异基因到代谢途径,再到非预期效应的转基因植物安全评价模式。这一评价模式可为今后创建高效、全面、客观、公正的转基因植物非预期效应检测和评价技术提供可能的实验模型和理论依据。     

A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.     

深沪湾海水、沉积物及贝类体内重金属的含量与评价

利用1998年5月和9月深沪湾海域环境调查资料，着重分析了深炉湾海水、表层沉积物及褶牡蛎和菲律宾蛤仔体内重金属的含量及分布，结果表明：深沪湾海水中Cu、Pb、Cd、Zn、Hg等含量均低于渔业水质标准，而表层沉积物的Pb、Zn含量大部分已超标，近岸水域海水和表层沉积物中Cu、Pb、Cd、Zn的含量明显高于湾中心水域，湾顶水域高于湾口水域。Hg的含量是湾南部水域高于北部水域。文中还根据全国海岸带污染综合调查专业组制定的海洋生物污染评价标准，对2种贝类的重金属污染程度进行评价，结果深沪湾的养殖贝类体内的重金属含量均未超标。     

Fish-based methods for assessing European running waters: a synthesis

Abstract  The European Union, Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires monitoring of riverine fish fauna. When the WFD came into force in 2000, most of the EU member states did not have fish-based assessment methods compliant to WFD requirements. Therefore, the objectives of FAME ( http://fame.boku.ac.at ), a project under the fifth R&D Framework Programme of the European Commission were to develop, evaluate and implement a standardised fish-based method for assessing the ecological status of European running waters. This paper synthesises the outputs of FAME and defines future research needs. Two different methodologies were used: the so-called spatially based modelling and the site-specific modelling, the latter leading to the European Fish Index (EFI). The advantage of the EFI is that, despite being a single index, it is applicable to a wide range of environmental conditions across Europe precluding the need for inter-calibration. The EFI will support the WFD towards harmonised/standardised assessment and management of running waters in Europe, thus enabling comparative analyses of the ecological status of running waters across Europe.     

厦门贝类养殖区沉积物中重金属的污染水平及其潜在生态危害

根据2005年4月和10月厦门贝类养殖区环境调查资料,着重对贝类养殖区表层沉积物中重金属的含量水平进行分析,并对贝类养殖区的表层沉积物进行质量评价及潜在生态危害评价.结果表明:厦门贝类养殖区沉积物中Cu、Pb、Cd、Zn、Hg、As的平均含量分别为20.0mg.kg-1,39.5mg.kg-1,0.07mg.kg-1,97.3mg.kg-1,0.05mg.kg-1,7.20mg.kg-1.其中同安湾北部和湾顶养殖区及西海域的杏林、东山养殖区,6种元素的含量均较高;位于同安湾的刘五店、澳头养殖区,含量均较低.沉积物质量评价结果表明,贝类养殖区沉积物中重金属的含量符合第一类海洋沉积物质量标准,属于较清洁水平.Hg、As和Cd的潜在生态危害系数大于Cu、Pb、Zn,整个养殖区沉积物中重金属为轻微生态危害,养殖环境良好.     

The impact of temperature on nitrification rate in fixed film biofilters

The impact of temperature on nitrification rate was evaluated in this study through experimental tests, mathematical modeling and sensitivity analysis. The results show that the impact of temperature on fixed film nitrification rate is less significant than that predicted by the van't Hoff–Arrhenius equation. In a fixed film biofilter, the impact of temperature on nitrification rate due to DO (dissolved oxygen) limitation is different from that due to TAN (total ammonia nitrogen) limitation. Sensitivity analysis indicated that a temperature increment at 20 °C resulted in nitrification rate increase of 1.108% per °C and 4.275% per °C under DO and TAN limited conditions, respectively. Diffusion mass transport plays an important role in fixed film nitrification processes. Consequently, the effect of temperature on nitrification rate due to bacterial growth rate change in fixed film processes is greatly reduced compared with that of suspended growth processes. When oxygen is limited, the decrease in saturation DO concentration as temperature increases results in a negative temperature impact upon the nitrification rate.     

珠三角地区密养淡水鱼塘水质状况分析与评价

池塘养殖是珠三角地区淡水渔业生产的主要形式。2012年5月～12月对草鱼（Ctenopharyngodon idellus）、云斑尖塘鳢（Oxyeleotris marmoratus）、大口黑鲈（Micropterus salmoides）和乌鳢（Channa argus）等该地区几种主要密养淡水品种鱼塘水质进行监测,分析水体理化环境因子,并选取pH、溶解氧（DO）、非离子氨（NH3）、氨氮（NH4^＋-N）、硝酸盐氮（NO3^--N）、亚硝酸盐氮（NO2^--N）、总氮（TN）、总磷（TP）、高锰酸盐指数（CODMn）和透明度等10项因子,采用单项污染指数和负荷比对监测参数进行单项评价,用综合污染指数法对各池塘水质进行整体评价。结果表明4种密养淡水鱼塘营养盐负荷高问题突出,NH3、NO3^--N、NO2^--N、TN和TP为池塘中的主要污染因素;草鱼池塘主要污染物为NH3和TN,其污染负荷合计为37.58%;云斑尖塘鳢池塘主要污染物为NH3、NO3^--N和TN,其污染负荷达59.37%;大口黑鲈池塘的主要污染物为NH3、TN、NO3^--N和NO2^--N,其污染负荷高达66.80%;乌鳢池塘的主要污染物为TN、NO3^--N、TP和NH3,其污染负荷达59.43%;对CODMn的分析与评价结果显示,池塘水体中还原性有机质含量高;由综合污染指数判定,所有池塘水体均为＂重污染＂等级,并超出警戒水平。