农业气象灾害风险分析及区划研究进展

为给农业气象灾害风险分析及区划研究提供理论参考,从农业气象灾害风险系统理论、分析概念模型、评估方法及区划方法等方面进行了综述,并对目前农业气象灾害风险分析存在的和有待进一步研究的问题进行了初步探讨.     

Effects of perioperative saphenous and sciatic nerve blocks,lumbosacral epidural or morphine–lidocaine–ketamine infusion on postoperative pain and sedation in dogs undergoing tibial plateau leveling osteotomy

ObjectiveTo compare the quality of postoperative analgesia and sedation after preoperative saphenous and sciatic nerve blockade, preoperative lumbosacral epidural injection and perioperative intravenous (IV) morphine, lidocaine and ketamine infusions in dogs undergoing stifle arthroscopy and tibial plateau leveling osteotomy (TPLO) under general anesthesia.Study designProspective, blinded, randomized, clinical comparison study.AnimalsA total of 45 dogs weighing 33.9 (15.9–56.7) kg and aged 5.2 (1.0–12.0) years, mean (range), undergoing elective unilateral TPLO for spontaneous cranial cruciate ligament rupture.MethodsClient-owned dogs were enrolled. Dogs were randomly assigned to one of three groups: group MLK, perioperative IV morphine, lidocaine and ketamine infusion; group EPID, lumbosacral epidural with ropivacaine and morphine; or group SSNB, saphenous and sciatic nerve blockade with ropivacaine. Routine stifle arthroscopy followed by TPLO surgery was performed. Sedation and pain scores were assessed at 0, 2, 4, 8 and 24 hours following extubation. Rescue analgesia was administered as prescribed by Glasgow composite pain score–short form score >5.ResultsSedation scores for MLK were higher than EPID and SSNB. Pain scores for SSNB were lower than those for EPID and MLK. No significant differences were found in anesthesia duration or surgery duration among groups. No dogs required rescue analgesia.Conclusions and clinical relevanceAlthough analgesia was adequate in all groups, the best combination of analgesia without increased sedation was recorded for SSNB.     

Synthetic Assessment of Power Transformer Condition Based on Matter-element Theory

Condition assessment on power transformer is an important approach to improve reliability of transformer and provide proper decision-making for condition-based maintenance. For long, static assessment method used in the past has already not adapted to the development of modem electricity transmission and distribution technology. So based on the deficiency of fuzzy synthetic assessment method, matter-element synthetic assessment method is introduced. The method can evaluate transformer condition not only in quality but also in quantity. Because each index weight can be given fairly and fast through improved analytic hierarchy process, which need not carry on consistency chec accuracy of assessment can be improved. Examples analysis has proved that assessment method of power transformer condition based on matter-element theory is rational and effective.     

Study and Practice of Safety Grade Assessment for Large Convention and Exhibition Centre

This paper takes "how to estimate the complex security of Large Convention and Exhibition Centre effectively" as the research goal.Based on analyzing the difficulties,target system,technical constitution,probing into the architecture,safety science,and using for reference the mathematics,operational research,statistics and modern system theory and method,trying to explore establishing an evaluation methodological system,which is provided with integrated characters on subject.Based on these ways,it exerts "quality to quantity" fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP) and aims at discussing the safety grade assessment of the Chongqing International Conference Exhibition Center focusing on designing theories.The aim is to enhance the integration of design practice and safe consciousness,strengthen the building safety management,and perfect city public security system.In practice,it is also an efficient tool for favoring values of architectural environmental safety.     

肥料减施下玉米-大豆间作对作物产量和昆虫群落组成及多样性的影响

为探究肥料减施下玉米-大豆间作对作物产量和昆虫群落组成及多样性的影响,在玉米、大豆单作及二者间作下施以标准肥料750 kg/hm~2和减半肥料375 kg/hm~2,于作物生长期调查田间昆虫群落组成及多样性,并在收获期对玉米和大豆进行测产。结果表明:与单作玉米相比,间作玉米在施用标准肥料下的百株生物量、百株籽粒重和千粒重分别显著增加78.33%、85.35%和38.71%,而在施用减半肥料下则分别显著增加90.91%、135.73%和33.33%;相同种植模式下,与施用标准肥料相比,减半肥料使单作玉米百株籽粒重显著降低22.45%。与单作大豆相比,在施用标准肥料下,间作大豆的百株籽粒重和千粒重分别显著降低49.47%和11.54%,在施用减半肥料下,间作大豆的百株生物量、百株籽粒重和千粒重分别显著降低73.94%、50.51%和17.39%;相同种植模式下,与施用标准肥料相比,减半肥料使大豆在单作和间作下的百株籽粒重分别显著降低65.02%和65.73%,使间作下大豆的百株生物量和千粒重分别显著降低73.14%和17.39%。与单作相比,间作均显著降低了标准肥料和减半肥料处理下玉米和大豆害虫群落的物种数、多样性指数和均匀度指数,还显著降低了标准肥料和减半肥料处理下玉米天敌昆虫群落的物种数和优势度指数以及大豆天敌昆虫群落的物种数和均匀度指数。表明玉米-大豆间作能有效提高玉米产量,降低虫害发生,但对大豆生产不利,而间作条件下减施肥料对玉米产量的影响更小。建议在田间生产中可将夏玉米和大豆间作种植,更有利于通过生态学方法控制田间害虫发生和增加作物总体产量。     

长沙市某县退出小反刍兽疫强制免疫暴发的定性风险评估

小反刍兽疫(PPR)是一种由小反刍兽疫病毒引起的疾病,主要感染山羊和绵羊。2021年为加快推进小反刍兽疫无疫区建设,实现小反刍兽疫非免疫无疫区建设标准,长沙市某县拟在本地开展小反刍兽疫退出强制免疫风险评估。通过对小反刍兽疫监测流调、危害识别、风险路径的确定和风险因素层级评估等方法进行的定性风险评估初步显示,在该地取消小反刍兽疫强制免疫后可能会发生小反刍兽疫的风险等级为中。在风险管理措施上,提出该地退出强制免疫应推迟一年,重点完善政策支持、加强监测排查、加强检疫监管、强化培训宣传等建议。     

面向资源认知变化的耕地评价研究进展与展望

科学的耕地评价是耕地合理开发、利用、保护的前提,耕地资源认知的深化引领耕地评价研究发展。为明晰耕地评价研究的发展历程、热点动态和未来前景,系统梳理1949—2023年引领耕地资源认知变化的理念、事件和政策,探讨耕地资源认知发展的阶段性特征,借助文献调查、文献计量分析、理论分析等方法,对不同阶段耕地评价研究的主要内容、政策支撑、技术方法与代表成果等进行总结,并提出面向新时期社会发展需求的耕地评价研究展望与关键问题。研究表明：1）耕地资源认知按时间顺序可划分为资源本体、资源平衡体和资源综合体3个阶段,认知对象由耕地数量单一维度向耕地数量与质量、数量-质量-生态、实体耕地与虚拟耕地等多维度转变,研究范围也由宜耕地、耕地等实体资源向近远程耦合框架下的全球虚拟耕地拓展;2）各阶段耕地评价的研究重点围绕耕地数量、耕地质量和耕地综合利用展开。在资源本体阶段,侧重土地开发适宜性评价,关注本底要素宜耕性;在资源平衡体阶段,注重耕地质量提升,对耕地资源的可持续利用潜力进行评价。在资源综合体阶段,评价对象向全球粮食贸易中的虚拟耕地拓展,评价内容关注耕地多功能及功能间权衡与协同关系。因此,未来耕地评价的研究内容需适应新时代发展的现实需求,耕地本体评价需兼顾实体和价值量,耕地质量评价需匹配人类福祉需求,耕地综合评价需考虑多元对象和指标。在评价理论与方法层面应加强学科交叉融合,充分利用新调查监测手段,丰富精细化耕地资源数据,为进一步拓展资源认知、丰富评价范式、优化耕地保护制度等提供支撑。     

Assessing the green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus drobachiensis) stock in Maine, USA

The green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus drobachiensis) fishery is of great importance to Maine’s economy. The fishery took off in the late 1980s as a result of expanding export markets, but has experienced substantial decline in landings since 1992 because of large decreases in urchin stock abundance. Fishery-independent surveys have not been conducted, and no formal stock assessment has been done prior to this study. Using the data collected from the fishery and urchin life history parameters derived from scientific studies, we conducted a formal stock assessment for the urchin stock. A stochastic observation-error length-structured model is used to describe the dynamics of the sea urchin population. A robust Bayesian approach is used for estimating fishery parameters because of concerns of possible outliers in fisheries data and mis-specification of priors. This study shows that the current stock is only 10% of the virgin stock biomass and that the exploitation rate is close to 40% suggesting that a large reduction in exploitation rate is necessary.     

溧阳市生物多样性评价

为溧阳市生物多样性的保护与利用提供依据,以溧阳市生物物种资源普查成果报告和溧阳天目湖森林公园植物资源调查报告为本底数据,采用综合指标体系评价方法对溧阳市生物多样性进行评价。结果表明:溧阳市生物多样性的综合评分为75分,其中物种多样性评分为35分,生态系统多样性评分为40分。溧阳市生物多样性评价结果等级为一般。     

草地生态系统安全及其评价研究

探讨了草地生态安全及其评价的概念与内涵,认为草地生态系统安全判断与度量准则应该是草地生态系统健康、草地生态系统服务功能及生态风险与管理的科学统一。同时尝试提出了草地生态系统安全评价的"健康-服务功能-风险与管理(health-service-risk and management,HSRM)"模型,构建了HSRM评价模型的指标体系,提出草地生态安全评价中草地生态安全度计算公式和安全状态分级标准。