我国开展食品安全风险分析的问题与对策

食品安全风险分析既是先进的管理模式,又是科学的思维方式。近几年我国食品安全事件频发,需要加快开展食品安全风险分析,以防患于未然。介绍了食品安全风险分析的基本原理,指出了我国开展食品安全风险分析的问题,并提出有关对策,以期对提高我国的食品安全水平有所裨益。     

Relating tradable credits for biodiversity to sustainability criteria in a dynamic landscape

Tradable biodiversity credit systems provide flexible means to resolve conflicts between development and conservation land-use options for habitats occupied by threatened or endangered species. We describe an approach to incorporate the influence of habitat fragmentation into the conservation value of tradable credits. Habitat fragmentation decreases gene flow, increases rates of genetic drift and inbreeding, and increases probabilities of patch extinction. Importantly, tradable credit systems will change the level of fragmentation over time for small and/or declining populations. We apply landscape equivalency analysis (LEA), a generalizable, landscape-scale accounting system that assigns conservation value to habitat patches based on patch contributions to abundance and genetic variance at landscape scales. By evaluating habitat trades using two models that vary the relationship between dispersal behaviors and landscape patterns, we show that LEA provides a novel method for limiting access to habitat at the landscape-scale, recognizing that the appropriate amount of migration needed to supplement patch recruitment and to offset drift and inbreeding will vary as landscape pattern changes over time. We also found that decisions based on probabilities of persistence alone would ignore changes in migration, genetic drift, and patch extinction that result from habitat trades. The general principle of LEA is that habitat patches traded should make at least equivalent contributions to rates of recruitment and migration estimated at a landscape scale. Traditional approaches for assessing the “take” and “jeopardy” standards under the Endangered Species Act based on changes in abundance and probability of persistence may be inadequate to prevent trades that increase fragmentation.     

Antipredator behaviour of naïve Arctic charr young in the presence of predator odours and conspecific alarm cues

Abstract –  We investigated how Arctic charr young respond behaviourally to olfactory cues from skin-damaged conspecifics, charr-fed pikeperch, and the combination of food-deprived pikeperch and skin-damaged conspecific cues in a two-channel Y-maze fluviarium test arena. Significant antipredator responses were found to skin-damaged conspecifics in three behavioural traits, to charr-fed pikeperch in two traits and to the combination of pikeperch and skin-damaged conspecific cues in all six behaviours investigated. The combination of predator and conspecific cues significantly increased spatial avoidance and cautiousness to approach the source of scent compared with odours from charr-fed predators. The results suggest that damage-released alarm cues exist in charr, and they strengthen the antipredator responses in conspecifics. As the charr used different behaviours and levels of response in the presence of different cues, they seem to have sophisticated skills to distinguish between different odour combinations and be able to adjust their behaviour according to the current predation risk level.     

Spatial integration of freshwater fish markets in the Northern Baltic Sea area

Freshwater fish species and Baltic salmon (Salmo salar) are important to small-scale fisheries in Finland and Sweden. The formerly local markets for these species have expanded as trade has been opened up to international competition. In this study we use cointegration analysis to test the spatial integration of freshwater fish markets in Finland and between Finland and Sweden. The analysed fish species are salmon, perch (Perca fluviatilis), pikeperch (Sander lucioperca), European whitefish (Goregonus lavaretus) and pike (Exos lucius), and the data covers ex-vessel prices from 1993 or 1995 to 2004. We found that the regional prices in Finland were cointegrated. This indicates that the prices are determined on a single market in Finland. Moreover, the study suggests that Finnish and Swedish markets in Baltic salmon, whitefish, pikeperch and perch were partially integrated, while integration of pike markets could not be found. The political implication is that an essential part of the local small-scale fisheries’ operational environment is determined outside the national borders.     

试论我国企业国际融资中存在的问题及对策

文章从分析我国企业国际融资的主要方式和特点入手,从筹资效益、融资范围等方面讨论了目前我国企业国际融资中存在的问题,并针对这些问题提出了一些优化对策,目的是使企业能够更合理、有效的利用外部的经济资源。     

风险视角下的动态信任关系模型

对风险问题的准确把握,是保证信任决策科学性的关键。针对目前在动态信任关系研究中对信任与风险本质关系理解不够和研究的不足,提出了风险视角下的信任关系理论模型和决策模型,详细分析并给出了信任与风险,以及信任决策与风险决策的本质关系,认为信任是风险的另一种表达形式,信任决策就是风险决策。通过对信任、风险和可信决策三者为一体的安全决策过程的分析,增强了安全决策的科学性,使得安全决策更加理性、全面和客观。     

天津新型日光温室风灾风险评估及区划

为了评估天津新型日光温室风灾风险,本研究在近10年天津日光温室风灾灾情大量实地调查的基础上,根据自然灾害风险评估理论,构建日光温室风灾风险评估模型,计算温室不同等级风灾风险指数,并从站点、空间、时间3个尺度分析了温室风灾风险指数的变化。风险指数站点结果和空间分布结果均表明,宁河、汉沽、塘沽、武清、西青等地是遭受轻、中度风灾风险较高地区。天津新型日光温室遭受轻度风灾的风险最高(风险指数介于0.62~3.15),明显高于中度(风险指数介于0.0~0.61)及重度风灾,而其遭受重度风灾的风险几乎为0,这与天津较少发生8级以上(最大17.2 m/s以上)大风有关。近10年日光温室中、重度风灾风险指数极小且变化基本持平,而轻度风灾风险指数从2005年的2.70逐渐降低至2007年的2.0,2007—2014年始终保持在2.0附近波动。     

吉林省主要粮食作物生产风险评价

充分认识吉林省主要粮食作物生产面临的风险,为稳定粮食产量和保障国家粮食安全提供参考。以县级行政单元为研究对象,在运用直线滑动平均法对作物单产进行趋势模拟的基础上,运用非参数信息扩散模型对吉林省玉米、水稻和大豆3种主要粮食作物的生产风险进行了评估。结果表明:不同类型作物生产所面临的风险大小不同,单产损失风险从大到小依次为大豆、玉米、水稻;西北部地区县域的风险普遍较大,其次是东南角地区,而中部地区县域的风险相对较小;吉林省玉米、水稻和大豆3种作物单产损失率30%以上的概率较小。     

基于GIS的低温冷冻灾害风险性评估

为了提高低温冷冻灾害的防御能力,为政府部门制定防灾减灾规划提供科学依据。本研究基于自然灾害形成机理及风险评估原理,以济南市长清区为例,利用气候资料、历史灾情数据、地理信息数据及社会经济等资料,采用层次分析法和加权综合评价法,借助GIS空间分析技术,通过对致灾因子危险性、敏感性、易损性和防灾减灾能力4个评价指标的空间评价,实现了对长清区低温冷冻灾害的风险性评估和综合区划。结果表明：长清区低温冷冻灾害总体表现为空间化强,没有规则的分布规律,综合风险性总体水平较高。文昌街道办事处、五峰山街道办事处、双泉乡的部分地区综合风险性最高,属于低温冷冻灾害的重点防御区域;轻、低风险主要分布在平安街道办事处、万德镇、马山镇、崮云湖街道办事处的部分辖区。该评估结果将对本地区农作物的种植规划及灾害防御措施的制定提供参考依据。     

农业面源污染负荷空间分布及风险评价研究进展

为了研究农业面源污染负荷空间分布及风险评估,综述了国内外近10年的最新研究进展,发现在农业面源污染空间分布及风险评估上的研究较多,其中污染的源因子及迁移因子空间分布研究进展颇多,而在综合风险评价上的研究还比较缺乏,对污染负荷的分布特征及其相关性的研究还存在不足,今后还需研究污染负荷分级区划与管理控制措施研究。