Risk Decision-making Method of Slope Resistant Engineering

Considering the character of slope resistant engineering invest benefit, in line with security and economy balmaced, combining initial investment and anticipated hazard loss, disaster resistant engineering should be satisfied with the criterion of minimum cost. Decision tree model is adopted as analyzing means, and risk decision-making of slope design is carried out. Project input-output radio adopting dynamic analysis can reflect project investment benefit more accurately. At last this paper analyzes some questions in process of slope resistant engineering with benefits enumerate.     

Correlation and Arithmetic of Operational Risk Measurement Basing on Loss Distribution Approach

Based on the principles of operational risk measurement provided by Basel II,the paper discusses the problem of operational risk correlations among different business lines / risk types.The correlation coefficients between the aggregate losses among different business lines / risk types are calculated.Copula arithmetic is put forward to compute correlation coefficients matrix of aggregate losses.Besides,the result is used to calculate the capital requirement of operational risk.     

Contracts of risk sharing of the enterprise, the employee and the dealer

The output of the enterprise changes with the change of natural states, therefore it brings relatively great risk to enterprise. The enterprise hopes to reduce the same kind of risk through more contracts than one kind of contract of risk sharing. This paper presents a new method to disperse the same kind of risk in two kinds of ways. Basing on principal-agent theory, through the optimum contract of risk sharing, the Pareto-optimum solving is solved-the optimum contract of risk sharing. The employee shares some risks through the optimum contract of risk sharing between the enterprise and the employee-when the output is high, the employee's income increases; when the output is low, the income decreases. In order to reduce the risk of the enterprise further, the dealer also shares the risk. To maximize the utility of the enterprise, the Pareto optimum solving is given-another optimum contract of risk. The dealer offers following contract of risk sharing to the enterprise-when the output is high, the dealer receives the repayment; when the output is low, the enterprise is compensated. The enterprise, the employee and the dealer share the risk together, thus the risk of the enterprise is reduced to relatively great degree.     

Application of Multivariate Statistics in Early-warning of Corporation Financial Crisis

This paper is focused on early warning of corporation financial crisis for the China's household electric appliance manufacturers in stock market. Firstly, using company's open-disclosed annual statements as data resource, the financial indexes system is constructed. Secondary, adopting the multivariable statistical analysis method, such as cluster, discriminate and principle component analysis, the multivariate models for the empirical study on early warning of financial crisis by making use of SPSS statistical software are set up. The corporation might discover the financial affairs crisis that shall probably arise beforehand by using the financial affairs crisis early warning system. This study and analysis may serve as reference for domestic industries and enterprises.     

Analysis of Causes and Impacts of Soft Budget Constraints of Enterprises Based on Dynamic Game for Three Players

This paper researches the behavior difference among government,banks and enterprises and how it affects soft budget constraints of enterprises and non-performing loans of banks based with dynamic game.The game model suggests that government will give banks some assistance and let them refinance enterprises,especially government has strong(incentive) to sustain SOEs in China's transitional economy.Banks will do it if the assistance from government is more than the loss from refinance enterprises.In addition the value of liquidation of enterprises and the new loans affect banks' refinancing old enterprises.     

河道堤防设计高程的概率设计和风

介绍河道堤防设计高程的概率和风险校核方法。该方法综合考虑多种不确定性因素的影响，利用随机微分方程推求河道水位的概率分布，并对风浪的随机影响进行分析，按照随机可靠性理论，对常规采用确定性方法确定的河道堤防高程进行漫顶风险校核和可靠性设计。     

基于模糊层次分析法的农产品加工企业风险评价研究

风险评价是风险管理的重要阶段,针对农产品加工企业特点,提出了一种基于模糊层次分析法的农产品加工企业风险评价方法。该方法初步解决了农产品加工企业风险管理中的关键问题——风险因素的识别。以某农产品加工公司为例,介绍了该方法的应用过程。     

农村污染缓流水体的修复研究

农村缓流水体是维系乡村生态平衡的重要组成部分, 水质污染已成为国内乡村缓流水体普遍现状。讨论了农村缓流水体的污染成因，并以水生植物大漂为水体修复主体，进行了大漂的水体修复特性的试验，讨论了在可控条件下用大漂对缓流污染水体进行修复治理的植物修复技术及大漂在水体修复中可能带来的生态风险及其防范。