美国贸易政策不确定性对中国畜产品价格时变冲击效应研究

本文基于2006年1月至2020年11月的中国猪、牛、羊等畜产品价格数据和美国贸易政策不确定性指数,利用带有随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-SV-VAR模型),考察美国贸易政策不确定性对中国畜产品价格波动的影响。研究发现:美国贸易政策不确定性对不同畜产品价格波动的影响存在阶段性特征,会推动畜产品价格周期性变动。在欧洲债务危机时期、中美贸易蓬勃发展后期、特朗普政府上台初期以及中美贸易摩擦升级时期这四个时期,美国贸易政策不确定性对中国不同畜产品价格波动的影响表现出差异性特征。美国贸易政策不确定性对中国猪肉价格的影响程度最深,对牛肉和羊肉价格冲击程度最小。据此,提出根据美国贸易条件变动预期相机抉择,达到平抑畜产品市场变动的目的,并以猪肉市场稳定为关键,多措并举,发挥市场供求调节能力。     

基于灰色预测模型的猕猴桃价格分析与预测

文章基于灰色系统理论,根据2014—2019年全国、北京、河北、河南和山西的猕猴桃市场价格变化,建立了GM(1,1)预测模型,对猕猴桃价格进行分析预测。结果显示,灰色预测模型GM(1,1)适用于猕猴桃价格预测,具有较高的准确度,全国和这4个省(市)的猕猴桃价格呈现周年波动和下降趋势。在不采取干预措施前提下,预计到2020年,全国、北京、河北、河南和山西的猕猴桃平均价格分别为8.96元/kg、11.18元/kg、8.13元/kg、5.21元/kg和8.65元/kg;到2021年,全国、北京、河北、河南和山西的猕猴桃平均价格分别为8.99元/kg、11.58元/kg、8.32元/kg、5.31元/kg和9.05元/kg。     

从“东坡模式”到“西湖镜像”:苏轼的生态农业构想与实践

北宋文学家苏轼宦海沉浮,荣辱不惊,在多年的外放生涯中,他关注农业与水利事业。无论躬耕东坡所构建的“东坡模式”,还是治理西湖所呈现的“西湖镜像”,都遵循自然规律,因地制宜,自力更生,体现“人与自然和谐共生”的生态农业观,所形成的生态农业模式既具有古老的农业传统背景与基础,又是一个不断创新发展完善的过程,对当下农业发展具有重要的借鉴作用。     

Assessment of Aspergillus fumigatus burden in lungs of intratracheally-challenged turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) by quantitative PCR,galactomannan enzyme immunoassay,and quantitative culture

Aspergillus fumigatus remains a major respiratory pathogen in birds and treatment is still difficult. We challenged different groups of few-day-old turkeys via intratracheal aerosolisation with increasing concentrations (10⁵ up to 10⁸) of conidia using a MicroSprayer^® device. The fungal burden was assessed by real-time PCR, galactomannan dosage, CFU counting and histopathological evaluation in order to provide a comparison of these results within each inoculum groups. Significant mortality, occurring in the first 96 h after inoculation, was only observed at the highest inoculum dose. Culture counts, GM index and qPCR results on the one hand and inoculum size on the other hand appeared to be clearly correlated. The mean fungal burden detected by qPCR was 1.3 log₁₀ units higher than the mean values obtained by CFU measurement. The new model and the markers will be used to evaluate the efficacy of antifungal treatments that could be used in poultry farms.     

Evaluation of different approaches to individual tree growth and survival modelling using data collected at irregular intervals - a case study for Pinus patula in Kenya

Background： The minimum set of sub-models for simulating stand dynamics on an individual-tree basis consists of tree-level models for diameter increment and survival. Ingrowth model is a necessary third component in uneven-aged management. The development of this type of model set needs data from permanent plots, in which all trees have been numbered and measured at regular intervals for diameter and survival. New trees passing the ingrowth limit should also be numbered and measured. Unfortunately, few datasets meet all these requirements. The trees may not have numbers or the length of the measurement interval varies. Ingrowth trees may not have been measured, or the number tags may have disappeared causing errors in tree identification. Methods： This article discussed and demonstrated the use of an optimization-based approach to individual-tree growth modelling, which makes it possible to utilize data sets having one or several of the above deficiencies. The idea is to estimate all parameters of the sub-models of a growth simulator simultaneously in such a way that, when simulation begins from the diameter distribution at the first measurement occasion, it yields a similar ending diameter distribution as measured in the second measurement occasion. The method was applied to Pinus patula permanent sample plot data from Kenya. In this dataset, trees were correctly numbered and identified but measurement interval varied from 1 to 13 years. Two simple regression approaches were used and compared to the optimization-based model recovery approach. Results： The optimization-based approach resulted in far more accurate simulations of stand basal area and number of surviving trees than the equations fitted through regression analysis. Conclusions： The optimization-based modelling approach can be recommended for growth modelling when the modelling data have been collected at irregular measurement intervals.     

基于CFD非稳态模型的温室温度预测控制

以Venlo温室内温度场为研究对象,提出了一种基于计算流体动力学(CFD)非稳态模拟模型的预测控制方法。CFD模型作为虚拟温室环境,将其非稳态模拟产生的时间序列数据代替真实的物理试验数据,结合系统辨识理论将CFD模型转换成基于数据的系统控制模型,实现基于CFD的温室温度预测控制。仿真结果表明,基于CFD的预测控制实现温室温度控制的平均偏差为2.65℃,标准偏差为3.27℃,可将室内温度平稳有效地控制在作物生长允许的温度范围内。系统辨识、控制算法和CFD技术的结合,提高了控制器设计的效率,丰富了温室控制系统的设计方法。     

基于经济博弈视角的奶牛合作社原奶价格分析

为了解析近年来中国奶牛合作社利润随着牛奶产量的增加利益不增反降的现象,从经济博弈论的角度出发,根据宏升村奶牛合作社具体情况,通过建立Bertrand模型,分析了牛奶利润减少的经济学原因：同质性的牛奶在供给大于需求的情况下,逐渐演变成合作社之间的成本战,合作社利润趋于0.为了转变这种情况,在不退市的前提下只有改变牛奶的同质性才能转亏为盈.合作社应当积极采用新技术新方法,努力提高牛奶品质以摆脱成本战的困境,在市场中占据优势地位.     

包头市休闲农业旅游模式探析

通过对包头市休闲农业旅游现状和资源的分析,提出了包头市休闲农业旅游的模式,以期为包头市休闲农业旅游发展提供借鉴。     

八荡河综合整治工程对太浦河北片地区防洪及水环境的影响

从防洪、水环境的角度,将太湖流域——维水量水质模型应用于太湖流域平原河网地区的水利计算中,分析太浦河北岸控制前后,八荡河工程实施对浦北地区防洪及水环境的影响。结果表明,工程实施可在一定程度上缓解太浦河高水位行洪对北片地区防洪排涝的影响,减少污染面源对太浦河水质的影响,以及缓解太浦河对区域河网水质的影响。     

私人投资农村社区在新农村建设中的作用

分析了私人投资农村社区的现状,对其导致的利弊进行了深入研究,并指出仍需要完善的管理模式加以规范和推广。