过去(1958-2007)和未来(2011-2060)50年淮河流域气候变化趋势分析

根据淮河流域1958-2007年观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式对该流域2011-2060年气候变化的预估结果,分析淮河流域1958-2007年平均气温、极端高(低)温、农业界限温度和年降水量变化,并对2011-2060年气温和降水量变化趋势进行预估。结果表明:(1)淮河流域年平均气温,20世纪90年代以前以降温为主,90年代中后期增温显著;季节变化上,春秋两季气温呈波动增加趋势,冬季增温速率较高,夏季则呈下降趋势,极端气温事件出现次数和温度变化幅度均减小。淮河流域热量资源的时间变化以增温趋势为主,各界限温度初日提前,终日推迟,持续日数和累积温度增加。从区域分布上,流域东部增温趋势强于西部。1958-2007年年降水量和极端降水等无突变性的增加或减少趋势;季节变化上,流域夏季降水量变幅较大。(2)3种排放情景下淮河流域年平均气温升高趋势一致,且SRES-A1B情景升温幅度大于其它两种情景且约在2040年突变增温,3种情景下季节平均气温均为冬季升高最快;未来年降水量有微弱增加,但M-K检测均无显著变化趋势,未来50a淮河流域季节降水仍以春、夏季降水为主,约占全年降水量的70%。     

内蒙古地区气候资源变化趋势分析

内蒙古地区有不同类型草地,也有典型的农牧交错带,对气候变化敏感,分析该地区气候干湿变化,对当地采取适应气候变化对策具有重要意义。利用内蒙古地区1961-2005年日平均温度、年平均温度、降水量、日照时数等主要气象要素资料,计算内蒙古地区湿润系数,综合分析气候变化背景下内蒙古地区气候资源变化情况。结果表明:近45a来,内蒙古地区年平均温度上升,T≥0℃积温均呈明显增加趋势;内蒙古东部及东北部大部分地区降水量有增加趋势,西部大部分地区降水量则呈减少趋势;荒漠、半荒漠、草甸草原景观面积呈增加趋势,典型草原、森林草原及森林类型区面积呈减少趋势。气候变化背景下,生长季延长给内蒙古东部湿润区的农林业生产带来机遇,但大部分地区荒漠化趋势加剧,草原生态系统脆弱性加剧,给农牧业生产与生活带来新的风险。     

近30年来黑龙江省气候变化特征分析

基于黑龙江省30个气象观测站的农业气象观测资料,利用气候倾向率和累积距平法,分析了1980-2009年黑龙江省年均温和年降水量的时空变化特征,以期揭示黑龙江省近30a来的气候变化规律。结果表明:(1)黑龙江省年平均气温呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.55℃/10a,从季节来看,以冬季升温最快,其中又以1月份升温最快(0.86℃/10a);(2)年降水量表现为明显的减少趋势,其中夏、秋2个季节降水减少显著;(3)年均温增温幅度在空间上总体表现为南高北低的趋势;年降水量减少幅度大的区域主要分布在松嫩平原南部和三江平原北部的大部分地区。     

气候因素对鲁西南棉花生长、产量和品质的影响

应用鲁西南1980-2009年植保部门棉花资料和气象部门气象资料,利用DPS专业版数据处理系统筛选一批影响棉花生长、产量和品质最优势相关气象因子,分析其相关性及对棉花生长、产量和品质的影响。结果表明:棉花衣分与7月降水量呈显著负相关;8月充足的光照有利于棉花裂铃、吐絮;9月降水量偏多,铃重严重减少。铃重随5月和8月平均气温升高而增加。铃重与5月日照时数呈正相关,光照充足,铃重增加;适宜的降水量对棉花纤维长度有利,降水量过大则棉花纤维长度减小。棉花皮棉及籽棉的产量均与年平均气温呈极显著正相关,说明气温偏高有利于棉花产量形成。分析气候因素对棉花生长及产量的影响,对发展当地棉花产业具有重要意义。     

Impacts of land use and plant characteristics on dried soil layers in different climatic regions on the Loess Plateau of China

A dried soil layer (DSL) formed in the soil profile is a typical indication of soil drought caused by climate change and/or poor land management. The responses of a soil to drought conditions in water-limited systems and the impacts of plant characteristics on these processes are seldom known due to the lack of comparative data on soil water content (SWC) in the soil profile. The occurrence of DSLs can interfere in the water cycle in soil-plant-atmosphere systems by preventing water interchanges between upper soil layers and groundwater. Consequently, a DSL may limit the sustainability of environmental restoration projects (e.g., revegetation, soil and water conservation, etc.) on the Loess Plateau of China and in other similar arid and semiarid regions. In this study, we investigated and compared the impacts of soil type, land use and plant characteristics within each of the three climatic regions (arid, semiarid, semihumid) of the Loess Plateau. A total of 17,906 soil samples from 382 soil profiles were collected to characterize DSLs across the Plateau.Spatial patterns of DSLs (represented by four indices: (1) DSL thickness, DSLT; (2) DSL forming depth, DSLFD; (3) mean SWC within the DSL, DSL-SWC; and (4) stable field water capacity, SFC) differed significantly among the climatic regions, emphasizing the importance of considering climatic conditions when assessing DSL variations. The impact of land use on DSLs varied among the three climatic regions. In the arid region, land use had no significant effect on DSLs but there were significant effects in the semiarid and semihumid regions (P < 0.05). The development of DSLs under trees and grasses was more severe in the semiarid region than in the semihumid region. In each climatic region, the extent of DSLs depended on the plant species (e.g., native or exotic, tree or grass) and growth ages; while only in the semiarid region, the DSL-SWC and SFC (P < 0.001) were significantly influenced by soil type. The DSL distribution pattern was related to the climatic region and the soil texture, which both followed gradients along the southeast-northwest axis of the Plateau. Optimizing land use can mediate DSL formation and development in the semiarid and semihumid regions of the Loess Plateau and in similar regions elsewhere. Understanding the dominant factors affecting DSLs at the regional scale enables scientifically based policies to be made that would alleviate the process of soil desiccation and sustain development of the economy and restoration of the natural environment. Moreover, these results can also be useful to the modeling of the regional water cycle and related eco-hydrological processes.     

Considering sink strength to model crop production under elevated atmospheric CO2

Climatic changes and elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations will affect crop growth and production in the near future. Rising CO₂ concentration is a novel environmental aspect that should be considered when projections for future agricultural productivity are made. In addition to a reducing effect on stomatal conductance and crop transpiration, elevated CO₂ concentration can stimulate crop production. The magnitude of this stimulatory effect (‘CO₂ fertilization’) is subject of discussion. In this study, different calculation procedures of the generic crop model AquaCrop based on a foregoing theoretical framework and a meta-analysis of field responses, respectively, were evaluated against experimental data of free air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) environments. A flexible response of the water productivity parameter of the model to CO₂ concentration was introduced as the best option to consider crop sink strength and responsiveness to CO₂. By varying the response factor, differences in crop sink capacity and trends in breeding and management, which alter crop responsiveness, can be addressed. Projections of maize (Zea mays L.) and potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) production reflecting the differences in responsiveness were simulated for future time horizons when elevated CO₂ concentrations and climatic changes are expected. Variation in future yield potential associated with sink strength could be as high as 27% of the total production. Thus, taking into account crop sink strength and variation in responsiveness is equally relevant to considering climatic changes and elevated CO₂ concentration when assessing future crop production. Indicative values representing the crop responsiveness to elevated CO₂ concentration were proposed for all crops currently available in the database of AquaCrop as a first step in reducing part of the uncertainty involved in modeling future agricultural production.     

气候变化对河南省主要农作物生育期的影响

利用河南省7个农业气象观测站1981-2004年冬小麦、夏玉米的生育期观测资料和同期的气象资料,分析了这两种作物主要生育期的变化趋势及对气候变化的响应。结果表明:河南省冬小麦自返青到成熟的各生育期均表现出提前的趋势,其中以拔节期提前最明显;冬小麦全生育期缩短,存在1.3d/10a的总减少趋势;相关分析显示导致冬小麦生育期提前的主要原因是2-5月平均气温的上升和3月日照时数的增加。夏玉米所有生育期都表现出延迟的趋势,以成熟期延迟程度最大;夏玉米全生育期天数呈现出显著增加的趋势,增加速率为2.1d/10a;6-9月总降水量减少是造成夏玉米生育期延迟的主要原因。     

河南雨养农业区土壤水分与气候变化的关系

利用河南省8个农业气象观测站1981—2005年的气象和土壤水分观测资料进行分析，结果表明：①河南省近25a来的年平均气温以0.05℃／a的速度上升，年降水量变化不明显；②土壤水分与气温呈极显著的负相关关系，而与降水呈极显著的正相关关系。得出：受气候变暖的影响，近25a来河南省雨养农业区土壤水分呈明显下降趋势。     

Amino acids in grassland soils: Climatic effects on concentrations and chirality

The response of soil organic nitrogen (SON) dynamics to climate may partly be deduced from changes in the concentration and origin of the major N constituents in soil, such as amino acids. In this study, we determined the enantiomers of bound amino acids in 18 native grassland soils (0–10 cm) that were sampled along a transect from central Saskatchewan, Canada, to Southern Texas, USA. Mean annual temperature (MAT) ranged from 0.9 to 23.4 °C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) from 300 to 1308 mm. d-alanine and d-glutamic acid served as markers for the bacterial origin of SON. The d-content of lysine, phenylalanine, and aspartic acid indicated an ageing of the respective SON forms. Deuterium labeling was applied to account for hydrolysis-induced racemization reactions. We found that the concentration of the bacterial biomarkers was weakly but significantly parabolically related to MAT, as previously reported for microbial-derived amino sugars. The age markers d-lysine, d-phenylalanine, and d-aspartic acid comprised 2–15% of the respective l-form. The presence of these compounds demonstrated that the structures that contained these d-enantiomers had survived microbial attack, i.e., these hydrolyzable SON forms were conserved in soil despite a living environment. First estimates indicate that the mean residence time of the lysine-containing organic matter forms extend beyond a century. Within this time-scale we did not find that climate significantly affects the degree of ageing of SON constituents in the studied topsoils.     

Tundra plants protect the soil surface from UV

In the Arctic, seasonal ozone depletion is resulting in periods of enhanced UV-B radiation at ground level while regional climate change is associated with increasing temperatures. These changes are likely to alter plant distribution, biodiversity and morphology, which may have knock-on effects for microbially driven biogeochemical cycling and other soil processes. Our study examined the transmission of solar UV radiation through arctic tundra plants using a portable UV radiometer and the DLR-biofilm biological UV dosimeter. A strong negative correlation was found between vegetation cover and UV transmission to the soil surface. Penetration of UV to the soil beneath tundra plants varied depending upon plant morphology, being greater through low creeping plants than cushion plants, grasses or mosses. UV transmission to the soil surface beyond the foliage edge also varied with plant morphology and the presence of flowers.