近30年来黑龙江省气候变化特征分析

基于黑龙江省30个气象观测站的农业气象观测资料,利用气候倾向率和累积距平法,分析了1980-2009年黑龙江省年均温和年降水量的时空变化特征,以期揭示黑龙江省近30a来的气候变化规律。结果表明:(1)黑龙江省年平均气温呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.55℃/10a,从季节来看,以冬季升温最快,其中又以1月份升温最快(0.86℃/10a);(2)年降水量表现为明显的减少趋势,其中夏、秋2个季节降水减少显著;(3)年均温增温幅度在空间上总体表现为南高北低的趋势;年降水量减少幅度大的区域主要分布在松嫩平原南部和三江平原北部的大部分地区。     

气候因素对鲁西南棉花生长、产量和品质的影响

应用鲁西南1980-2009年植保部门棉花资料和气象部门气象资料,利用DPS专业版数据处理系统筛选一批影响棉花生长、产量和品质最优势相关气象因子,分析其相关性及对棉花生长、产量和品质的影响。结果表明:棉花衣分与7月降水量呈显著负相关;8月充足的光照有利于棉花裂铃、吐絮;9月降水量偏多,铃重严重减少。铃重随5月和8月平均气温升高而增加。铃重与5月日照时数呈正相关,光照充足,铃重增加;适宜的降水量对棉花纤维长度有利,降水量过大则棉花纤维长度减小。棉花皮棉及籽棉的产量均与年平均气温呈极显著正相关,说明气温偏高有利于棉花产量形成。分析气候因素对棉花生长及产量的影响,对发展当地棉花产业具有重要意义。     

Impacts of land use and plant characteristics on dried soil layers in different climatic regions on the Loess Plateau of China

A dried soil layer (DSL) formed in the soil profile is a typical indication of soil drought caused by climate change and/or poor land management. The responses of a soil to drought conditions in water-limited systems and the impacts of plant characteristics on these processes are seldom known due to the lack of comparative data on soil water content (SWC) in the soil profile. The occurrence of DSLs can interfere in the water cycle in soil-plant-atmosphere systems by preventing water interchanges between upper soil layers and groundwater. Consequently, a DSL may limit the sustainability of environmental restoration projects (e.g., revegetation, soil and water conservation, etc.) on the Loess Plateau of China and in other similar arid and semiarid regions. In this study, we investigated and compared the impacts of soil type, land use and plant characteristics within each of the three climatic regions (arid, semiarid, semihumid) of the Loess Plateau. A total of 17,906 soil samples from 382 soil profiles were collected to characterize DSLs across the Plateau.Spatial patterns of DSLs (represented by four indices: (1) DSL thickness, DSLT; (2) DSL forming depth, DSLFD; (3) mean SWC within the DSL, DSL-SWC; and (4) stable field water capacity, SFC) differed significantly among the climatic regions, emphasizing the importance of considering climatic conditions when assessing DSL variations. The impact of land use on DSLs varied among the three climatic regions. In the arid region, land use had no significant effect on DSLs but there were significant effects in the semiarid and semihumid regions (P < 0.05). The development of DSLs under trees and grasses was more severe in the semiarid region than in the semihumid region. In each climatic region, the extent of DSLs depended on the plant species (e.g., native or exotic, tree or grass) and growth ages; while only in the semiarid region, the DSL-SWC and SFC (P < 0.001) were significantly influenced by soil type. The DSL distribution pattern was related to the climatic region and the soil texture, which both followed gradients along the southeast-northwest axis of the Plateau. Optimizing land use can mediate DSL formation and development in the semiarid and semihumid regions of the Loess Plateau and in similar regions elsewhere. Understanding the dominant factors affecting DSLs at the regional scale enables scientifically based policies to be made that would alleviate the process of soil desiccation and sustain development of the economy and restoration of the natural environment. Moreover, these results can also be useful to the modeling of the regional water cycle and related eco-hydrological processes.     

Considering sink strength to model crop production under elevated atmospheric CO2

Climatic changes and elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations will affect crop growth and production in the near future. Rising CO₂ concentration is a novel environmental aspect that should be considered when projections for future agricultural productivity are made. In addition to a reducing effect on stomatal conductance and crop transpiration, elevated CO₂ concentration can stimulate crop production. The magnitude of this stimulatory effect (‘CO₂ fertilization’) is subject of discussion. In this study, different calculation procedures of the generic crop model AquaCrop based on a foregoing theoretical framework and a meta-analysis of field responses, respectively, were evaluated against experimental data of free air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) environments. A flexible response of the water productivity parameter of the model to CO₂ concentration was introduced as the best option to consider crop sink strength and responsiveness to CO₂. By varying the response factor, differences in crop sink capacity and trends in breeding and management, which alter crop responsiveness, can be addressed. Projections of maize (Zea mays L.) and potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) production reflecting the differences in responsiveness were simulated for future time horizons when elevated CO₂ concentrations and climatic changes are expected. Variation in future yield potential associated with sink strength could be as high as 27% of the total production. Thus, taking into account crop sink strength and variation in responsiveness is equally relevant to considering climatic changes and elevated CO₂ concentration when assessing future crop production. Indicative values representing the crop responsiveness to elevated CO₂ concentration were proposed for all crops currently available in the database of AquaCrop as a first step in reducing part of the uncertainty involved in modeling future agricultural production.     

锡林浩特市日照时数的气候变化特征分析

利用锡林浩特市50a(1961-2010)日照时数以及总云量、低云量、降水量和水汽压等资料,采用气候倾向率分析其变化趋势,利用滑动T检验法和累积距平结合的方法进行突变分析,并根据各气象要素的年、季变化趋势及其与日照时数变化趋势的对应关系对日照时数变化原因进行分析。结果表明,锡林浩特市年日照时数呈极显著增加趋势(P<0.01);从年代际变化看,20世纪60-90年代,年均日照时数呈持续增加趋势,90年代达到最大,进入21世纪后,年均日照时数则明显减少;四季中夏季日照时数呈极显著增加趋势(P<0.01)。各季日照时数偏少期为20世纪60-70年代,偏多期为80年代-21世纪初;各月日照时数均呈波动上升趋势,增加最多的为8月;年日照时数在1985年发生了由少到多的突变,季日照时数发生突变是导致年突变的原因,尤以春季和夏季最为显著;云量是决定日照时数增加的重要原因之一,日照时数增加还与夏季、冬季水汽压以及夏季和秋季降水量密切相关。     

气候变化与土壤湿度关系的研究进展

在分析气候变化与土壤湿度关系研究现状的基础上,综述了该研究的进展。首先,描述了用数值模拟方法研究气候变化与土壤湿度之间关系的现状;论述了该研究取得的成果和需要进一步研究的问题;其次,简要总结了目前研究仍显薄弱的资料诊断分析工作及取得的成果。土壤湿度的监测与预报是制定合理的灌溉制度从而实现适时适量灌溉的基础,因此本文对气候变化条件下土壤湿度变化趋势的研究及节水灌溉(特别是干旱地区)具有重要的意义。     

1981-2009年江苏省气候变化趋势及其对水稻产量的影响

利用江苏省1981-2009年7个农业气象站点的气象和水稻物候、产量资料,从平均气温和降水量对水稻产量影响的基本方程入手,定义了平均气温和降水量变化趋势对水稻产量趋势的贡献率,揭示江苏省近30a气候变化趋势对水稻产量的影响.结果表明,近30a来,江苏省水稻全生育期平均气温和最低气温呈上升趋势,最高气温的变化在苏南和苏北地区差异较大,尤其在开花-成熟阶段,苏南地区呈上升趋势,而苏北地区则呈相反变化趋势.气温(包括平均气温、最低气温和最高气温)与水稻产量呈正相关,1981-2009年平均气温升高对江苏省水稻产量影响的平均值约为1.2％,对产量趋势的贡献率约为30.0％.降水量的变化趋势不明显,降水量与水稻产量的相关性亦不显著,说明在研究区内降水量的变化对水稻产量的影响较小.总体上,江苏省近30a气候变化有利于水稻生产.     

过去(1958-2007)和未来(2011-2060)50年淮河流域气候变化趋势分析

根据淮河流域1958-2007年观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式对该流域2011-2060年气候变化的预估结果,分析淮河流域1958-2007年平均气温、极端高(低)温、农业界限温度和年降水量变化,并对2011-2060年气温和降水量变化趋势进行预估。结果表明:(1)淮河流域年平均气温,20世纪90年代以前以降温为主,90年代中后期增温显著;季节变化上,春秋两季气温呈波动增加趋势,冬季增温速率较高,夏季则呈下降趋势,极端气温事件出现次数和温度变化幅度均减小。淮河流域热量资源的时间变化以增温趋势为主,各界限温度初日提前,终日推迟,持续日数和累积温度增加。从区域分布上,流域东部增温趋势强于西部。1958-2007年年降水量和极端降水等无突变性的增加或减少趋势;季节变化上,流域夏季降水量变幅较大。(2)3种排放情景下淮河流域年平均气温升高趋势一致,且SRES-A1B情景升温幅度大于其它两种情景且约在2040年突变增温,3种情景下季节平均气温均为冬季升高最快;未来年降水量有微弱增加,但M-K检测均无显著变化趋势,未来50a淮河流域季节降水仍以春、夏季降水为主,约占全年降水量的70%。     

不同气候条件下潮土微生物群落的变化

针对气候变化的背景研究农田土壤微生物对气候变化的响应机制是调控农田土壤养分循环的理论基础。本研究基于设置在3个气候带(冷温带海伦、暖温带封丘和中亚热带鹰潭)的潮土移置试验,利用磷脂脂肪酸(PLFA)分析方法研究了移置第6年土壤微生物群落的变化特征。结果表明,在3种气候条件下潮土移置6年后土壤部分理化性质显著变化,土壤有机质含量表现为冷温带最高而中亚热带最低;在种植玉米的不同施肥处理中,土壤中微生物总PLFAs、革兰氏阳性细菌(G+)、革兰氏阴性细菌(G-)、细菌和放线菌PLFAs含量均表现为海伦封丘鹰潭,真菌/细菌比值在冷温带最低;PLFA图谱的主成分分析显示气候条件显著影响了土壤微生物的群落结构,海伦和封丘位于PC1正轴,而鹰潭位于负轴,受气候影响较大的特征PLFA包括18:1ω7c、16:1ω5c、16:0、18:0和18:2ω6,9c;逐步回归分析显示温度、降雨和土壤有机质是影响微生物群落的主要因子。总体上,气候条件的变化在短期内(6年)改变了土壤微生物的群落结构,可以影响农田生态系统的生物地球化学循环。     

不同气候和土壤条件下秸秆腐解过程中养分的释放特征及其影响因素

农田土壤中秸秆腐解伴随氮磷钾养分的释放是重要的生物地球化学过程,也是秸秆还田替代化肥养分的基础。了解不同农区秸秆分解过程中的养分释放动态,揭示秸秆、气候和土壤条件的交互作用机制,是制定秸秆还田合理措施的理论基础。基于寒温带-暖温带-中亚热带的黑土、潮土、红壤互置试验平台,研究了小麦、玉米秸秆在3年腐解过程中养分释放过程和影响因素。结果表明,秸秆中养分释放速率的大小顺序为KPN;秸秆中氮素和磷素在寒温带以及在红壤和潮土中表现为先富集再释放特征,在暖温带、中亚热带以及黑土中表现为直接释放特征;秸秆中钾素均表现为直接快速释放特征,在腐解0.5 a平均释放率达89.5%。气候和土壤条件主导了氮磷的释放,其相对平均贡献率分别为19.5%和15.2%。在腐解后期(2~3 a)气候、土壤和秸秆因素对养分释放的贡献率30%,说明土壤生物因素可能起了主导作用。