湖南省粮食产量波动的影响因素分析及预测

旨在维护国家稳定,为预判粮食生产前景、提高粮食生产效率、保障粮食安全提供理论依据。利用湖南省统计数据,运用灰色关联分析法筛选关联性较强的影响因素,并建立GM(1,N)预测模型预测粮食产量。2008—2017年与湖南省粮食产量关联度最大的影响因素是粮食作物播种面积和农业机械总动力;科技因素是影响2008—2017年湖南省粮食产量的主要因素,其次是自然因素,社会因素;2018—2027年湖南省粮食产量有较小波动,且农业机械总动力和财政农业支出影响较大;农业机械总动力在前后十年对粮食产量都有较重要的影响,越来越占据主导地位。粮食产量受国家政策的影响,受农业机械总动力影响最大,维持产量水平需高度重视农业机械化水平,稳步提高粮食作物播种面积。     

Effects of Adding Mannan Oligosaccharides to Diets with Different Concentrate to Forage Ratios on Ruminal Fermentation of Sheep in vitro

The test was aimed at determining the effects of adding MOS to diets with different concentrate to forage ratios on ruminal fermentation of sheep in vitro.The 4×6 two-factor experimental design was chosen.There were 4 diets with different concentrate to forage ratios(20:80, 30:70, 40:60 and 50:50) and added to 6 dosages MOS(0, 0.4%, 0.8%, 1.2%, 1.6% and 2.0%), respectively.The method of gas production in vitro was used to measure the total gas and CH₄ production, IVDMD, IVCPD and IVOMD after cultured for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 24 h.The results showed that the gas(except 12 and 24 h) and CH₄ production(except 9 h) were not impacted by the two factors(P>0.05).The IVDMD, IVCPD and IVOMD were significantly affected by concentrate to forage ratios(P<0.05), while the IVCPD at 24 h was significantly affected by MOS(P<0.05).Meanwhile, all the indexes were not influenced by the interaction of two factors(P>0.05).The IVDMD and IVOMD increased with the rising of concentrate approximately, while the IVCPD decreased with the rising of MOS roughly.The biggest associative effect was gained in 30:70 concentrate to forage diet when adding 1.2% MOS.     

基于改进GM(1,N)模型的我国大豆价格影响因素分析及预测研究

大豆是我国重要的粮食作物和油料作物,其价格对于国民经济尤其是农业经济的影响意义深远。大豆价格的稳定对于我国大豆市场的健康发展有着重要的现实意义。在灰色理论的基础上,提出了一种改进GM(1,N)大豆价格预测模型,首先运用灰色关联分析法对我国大豆价格的影响因素进行分析,选择主要的影响因素;再将这些影响因素作为模型的相关因素变量,构建GM(1,N)大豆价格预测模型。采用2010-2015年的大豆数据进行实证研究,模型选取国内大豆自给量、世界大豆产量、国民消费价格指数、消费者信心指数4个变量作为相关因素变量;模型预测误差为2.10%,预测精度较高,能够较好地掌握大豆价格的变化规律,可以为大豆价格市场预测及国家宏观政策的制定提供理论指导。     

插条粗度和萌芽度对降香黄檀扦插成活率的影响

在江门市林科所苗圃选择不同粗细度、不同萌芽度的降香黄檀插条进行扦插繁殖试验,每10 d进行1次成活率调查。结果表明:插条的萌芽度和粗细度均极显著影响扦插的成活率,萌芽度和粗细度的交互作用对扦插的成活率也有极显著影响;未萌芽插条扦插成活率明极显高于已萌芽插条的扦插成活率;3种粗细度的枝条中以粗细度为0.7~1.2 cm的插条扦插成活率最高;在枝条萌芽度及粗细度交互作用下,粗细度为0.7~1.2 cm的未萌芽插条扦插成活率最高,粗细度小于0.7 cm的已萌芽插条扦插成活率最低。     

基于变分法的FY-3C土壤水分产品适用性分析

FY-3C作为我国风云三号首颗业务卫星,其上搭载的微波成像仪(MWRI)可提供全天候土壤水分数据。【目的】获取高质量土壤水分数据可以对合理利用土壤水资源提供参考,为农田干旱监控和预报提供基础参数。【方法】选取山东省农业气象站土壤水分数据对FY-3C土壤水分产品进行检验,为获取更高质量FY-3C土壤水分产品,选用变分订正方法对FY-3C土壤水分产品进行偏差订正。【结果】FY-3C升降轨土壤水分产品与地面站土壤水分相关系数R分别为0.481 6和0.408 2,RMSE分别为0.099 6和0.091 0 cm~3/cm~3。订正后FY-3C升降轨土壤水分产品与地面站土壤水分R分别为0.701 4和0.892 4,RMSE分别为0.021 7和0.011 cm~3/cm~3。对2016年3—4月山东省干旱过程订正前、后FY-3C土壤水分变化情况进行对比,订正后FY-3C土壤水分更准确地反映出此次干旱过程。【结论】FY-3C土壤水分产品可以准确反映土壤水分随时间的变化趋势,订正后FY-3C土壤水分产品与地面站土壤水分间误差减小、相关性提高。     

油草混播种类对油菜生产和草地生产性能的影响

为筛选与门源油菜混播效益最高的牧草种类,解决油菜连作障碍问题,提高青藏高原高海拔区土地的生产能力,本研究采用油菜混播箭筈豌豆、青稞和燕麦的方式,分时段取样,探究了油菜混播不同牧草对在不同时段牧草自身生产能力的影响,并通过土地当量比判断各混播组合的优劣。研究表明油菜-燕麦混播处理在7月6日时表现干重最高,单位面积达174.48 g；在7月21日表现为鲜重和鲜干比最高,在8月15日时表现为株高显著高于单作油菜(p＜0.05),较单作油菜高97.02%；鲜重最高,达2817.00 g。在9月11日,油菜-青稞和油菜-燕麦混播处理的株高显著高于单作油菜(p＜0.05),分别较单作油菜高64.33%和99.68%,以油菜-青稞混播处理的干重最高,达589.00 g,较单作油菜处理高147.51%。油菜-箭筈豌豆混播和油菜-燕麦混播有产量优势,油菜-燕麦混播的土地当量比最高,为1.11,土地利用效果最好。     

Early resynchronization protocols for goats: Progestogens can be used prior to an early pregnancy diagnosis without affecting corpus luteum functionality

This study aimed to evaluate the exogenous progesterone (P4) effect on the luteal function from Day 16 to Day 21 of the oestrous cycle in inseminated goats with unknown pregnancy status. A total of 54 does passed through a short progestin-based synchronization protocol and, on Day 16 of the following oestrous cycle, 27 does received a new P4 device which was retained until Day 21. Blood samples were collected daily from all does during this period, as well as on Day 24. Pregnancy diagnoses were performed on Day 30. Serum P4 values from 26 animals (G_NPSP: Group of non-pregnant does with second sponge: n = 8; G_NPNSP: Group of non-pregnant does without second sponge: n = 6; G_PSP: Group of pregnant does with second sponge: n = 5; G_PNSP: Group of pregnant does without second sponge: n = 7) were determined by radioimmunoassay commercial kits. No P4 differences were found between groups (G_NPSP: 3.1 ± 2.8; 1.7 ± 1.8; 0.4 ± 1.0; and 0.0 ± 0.0 vs. G_NPNSP: 4.4 ± 1.8; 3.0 ± 2.2; 0.8 ± 0.8; and 0.0 ± 0.0 or G_PSP: 4.2 ± 1.0; 3.4 ± 0.6; 3.3 ± 1.6; 3.2 ± 0.9; 3.6 ± 1.2; 3.5 ± 1.3; 2.7 ± 1.3 vs. G_PNSP: 4.4 ± 1.6; 3.6 ± 1.5; 3.7 ± 1.5; 3.8 ± 1.4; 3.2 ± 1.2; 3.1 ± 1.2; 3.6 ± 1.1; D16, D17, D18, D19, D20, D21, D24, respectively) or for the interaction of group and time. In conclusion, a second progestogen device had no effect on luteolysis or early pregnancy in the following oestrous cycle.     

Variations of SOC and MBC observed in an incubated brown loam soil managed under different tillage systems for 12 years

To assess changes in organic carbon pools, an incubation experiment was conducted under different temperatures and field moisture capacity (FMC) on a brown loam soil from three tillage practices used for 12 years: no‐till (NT), subsoiling (ST) and conventional tillage (CT). Total microbial respiration was measured for incubated soil with and without the input of straw. Results indicated that soil organic carbon (SOC) and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) under ST, NT and CT was higher in soil with straw input than that without, while the microbial quotient (MQ or MBC: SOC) and metabolic quotient (qCO₂) content under CT followed the opposite trend. Lower temperature, lower moisture and with straw input contributed to the increases in SOC concentration, especially under NT and ST systems. The SOC concentrations under ST, with temperatures of 30 and 35°C after incubation at 55% FMC, were greater than those under CT by 28.4% and 30.6%, respectively. The increase in MBC was highest at 35°C for 55%, 65% and 75% FMC; in soil under ST, MBC was greater than that under CT by 199.3%, 50.7% and 23.8%, respectively. At 30°C, the lower qCO₂ was obtained in soil incubated under NT and ST. The highest MQ among three tillage practices was measured under ST at 55% FMC, NT at 65% FMC and CT at 75% FMC with straw input. These data indicate the benefits of enhancing the MQ; the low FMC was beneficial to ST treatment. Under higher temperature and drought stress conditions, the adaptive capacity of ST and NT is better than that of CT.     

Vitamin C in broccoli (Brassica oleracea L. var. italica) flower buds as affected by postharvest light,UV-B irradiation and temperature

In this study, the changes in vitamin C, l-ascorbic acid (AA) and l-dehydroascorbic acid (DHA) levels in broccoli flower buds were examined during pre-storage and storage periods, simulating refrigerated transport with wholesale distribution and retail, respectively. Broccoli heads were pre-stored for 4 or 7 days at 0 °C or 4 °C in the dark and then stored for 3 days at 10 °C or 18 °C. During storage the broccoli heads were exposed for 12 h per day to three different levels of visible light (13, 19 or 25 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹) or a combination of visible light (19 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹) and UV-B irradiation (20 kJ m⁻² d⁻¹), or they were stored in the dark. The vitamin C content in broccoli flower buds during storage was significantly affected by pre-storage period and temperature. Higher vitamin C levels in flower buds after storage were observed for broccoli heads pre-stored for 4 days or at 0 °C as compared to those pre-stored for 7 days or at 4 °C. Storage temperature also affected vitamin C in broccoli flower buds, with higher levels observed for broccoli stored at 10 °C than at 18 °C. Hence, vitamin C in broccoli flower buds was demonstrated to decrease together with increasing pre-storage period, pre-storage temperature and storage temperature. AA in broccoli flower buds was influenced mainly by storage temperature and to a minor extent by pre-storage temperature. The DHA level and DHA/AA ratio were stable in flower buds of broccoli pre-stored for 7 days, whereas increasing tendencies for both DHA level and ratio were observed after pre-storage for 4 days. These results indicate a shift in the ascorbate metabolism in broccoli flower buds during storage at low temperatures, with its higher rate observed for broccoli pre-stored for shorter time. There were no effects of the light and UV-B irradiation treatments on vitamin C, AA and DHA levels in broccoli flower buds.