Use of Akaike information criteria for model selection and inference. An application to assess prevention of gastrointestinal parasitism and respiratory mortality of Guinean goats in Kolda,Senegal

A field experiment was carried out in Kolda (southern Senegal) from July 1986 to July 1988. Its goals were to: (1) describe the patterns of mortality of female Guinean goats by age, season and year; (2) assess preventive measures against respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal parasitism in reducing mortality; and (3) estimate the overall impact of these measures on survival to 1 year of age. Preventive measures for respiratory disease included vaccination against peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and pneumonic pasteurellosis (Pasteurella multocida types A and D). Control of gastrointestinal parasites was by deworming does with morantel (7.5 mg kg⁻¹, three times during the rainy season). The effects of vaccines and deworming were tested in a randomised factorial field experiment with villages being the experimental units. A total of 19 villages, 113 goat herds and 1458 goats were included in the study.

Generalised linear models of survival for five cohorts of goats (defined by five different birth seasons) used a binomial assumption for the response distribution and a complementary log–log link. Explanatory variables included age, season, year, vaccination, deworming and their interactions. A complex a priori model was built on the basis of previous epidemiological knowledge; a purposively selected set of simpler models was compared to this full model by the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and derived statistics. Inference on 1-year survival and treatment effects accounted for model-selection uncertainty. It was carried out with a bootstrap procedure and used information from the whole set of selected models.

Large variations in mortality by year and season were observed but no regular seasonal pattern was apparent. Mortality probabilities of kids in dewormed groups decreased quickly after birth, but remained elevated up to 9 months of age in the non-dewormed groups. Deworming lowered the risk of mortality. Vaccination alone was not protective (except during an observed outbreak of PPR).     

甘肃省草业可持续发展策略刍议

甘肃省发展草业具有土地、气候、生物和劳力优势。根据4个生态经济区的特点,分别讨论了草业发展与生态建设的关系。牧区生态保护与草业开发和草地畜牧业的产业更新;河西农区草畜产品生产和荒漠生态系统保护;河东黄土高原区保持水土与草畜产业链延伸;特别是甘肃省陇南山区最适于发展包括生物柴油的新型生物产业。     

新时期工业工程领域工程硕士培养模式探索与实践

在分析工业工程专业特点的基础上，针对工业工程专业工程硕士的特点，提出了新时期对工业工程领域工程硕士研究生培养质量的要求和挑战。结合重庆大学在该方面的人才培养经验。探索在新时期适合工业工程领域工程硕士的人才培养模式。     

用循环经济理念治理畜禽养殖业污染

畜禽养殖带来的大量废弃物是农业面源污染的主要来源,畜禽养殖污染的防治主要采用还田模式、生化处理模式、沼气化处理模式及污染转移四种方式,沼气化处理模式是用循环经济理念治理畜禽养殖污染最有效的方法。     

畜果结合生态养殖模式的研究

本研究系统探讨了果园和畜禽养殖的种养结合型生态模式,分析研究了“猪-沼-果”、“草-鸡-果”两种生态模式下的猪、鸡生产性能,畜舍空气质量以及苹果的产量和质量。研究结果表明:生态养殖模式下生长肥育猪和鸡的增重显著高于庭院养殖(P<0.05),分别提高了17.46%和29.28%;猪舍、鸡舍空气中的CO2和NH3比庭院猪舍、鸡舍显著降低(P<0.05);苹果产量比单纯果园平均分别提高28.97%和21.15%,含糖量分别相对提高6.79%和6.36%。     

五指山猪小群体遗传学检测

本研究利用26个微卫星基因座对中国热带农业科学院热带作物品种资源研究所保种场的五指山猪小群体58个样本进行了遗传学检测,用非变性(中性)聚丙烯酰胺凝胶电泳检测微卫星的PCR扩增产物,统计了群体平均基因纯合率、等位基因数,利用等位基因频率计算出各群体的平均遗传杂合度(H)、多态信息含量(PIC)。统计结果:全群平均基因纯合率为66.5%;平均多态信息含量、平均观测杂合度为、平均期望杂合度分别为0.807、0.338、0.835;每个位点平均等位基因数为11.92,此结果说明该群体虽然近交程度较高,但仍具有丰富的遗传多样性,遗传变异较大。     

Postcards from the past: charting the landscape-scale conversion of tropical Australian savanna to closed forest during the 20th century

Repeated sequences of digitised and geo-referenced historical aerial photography provide a powerful means of understanding landscape change. We use this method to demonstrate a landscape wide expansion of closed forest (42% increase in total coverage) in the Australian monsoon tropics over the past five decades. Retrospective habitat suitability models (HSI) of closed forest derived using four landscape measures (drainage distance, slope angle, aspect and elevation) for imagery taken in 1947 correctly forecast the subsequent spatial distribution of the expansion, with topographic fire protection primarily determining the closed-forest distribution. The dynamics of the closed forest-savanna boundary were predicted accurately by generalised linear models, with closed-forest expansion in fire-protected sites along forest edges and regression in the more fire-prone areas. Two factors may plausibly explain the expansion of closed forests. First, eco-ethnographic records stress the skilful use of fire by Aboriginal people in protecting isolated and locally resource-rich closed-forest patches. Second, the recent global increase in atmospheric CO₂ may be changing the competitive balance between savanna and forest by enabling C₃ trees to grow fast enough to escape the fire trap presented by flammable C₄ grasses.     

象虫金小蜂中国新记录

本文首次报道了象虫金小蜂在中国的分布,并用图文简要地描述其特征。该蜂是四纹豆象、米象、谷象、玉米象、烟草甲和药材甲等重要贮藏物害虫的天敌。     

朝鲜鹌鹑遗传多样性微卫星标记分析

选用鹌鹑上的12个微卫星位点,对随机选取朝鲜鹌鹑的40个个体进行多态性检测,共检测到55个等位基因,每个座位平均等位基因数为4.583个。该群体平均多态信息含量和平均杂合度分别为0.6945和0.7111,表明朝鲜鹌鹑属多态性较丰富的群体。     

Landscape ecology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phragmites australis</Emphasis> invasion in networks of linear wetlands

The interaction between landscape structure and spatial patterns of plant invasion has been little addressed by ecologists despite the new insights it can provide. Because of their spatial configuration as highly connected networks, linear wetlands such as roadside or agricultural ditches, can serve as corridors facilitating invasion at the landscape scale, but species dynamics in these important habitats are not well known. We conducted a landscape scale analysis of Phragmites australis invasion patterns (1985–2002 and 1987–2002) in two periurban areas of southern Québec (Canada) focusing on the interaction between the network of linear wetlands and the adjacent land-uses. Results show that, at the beginning of the reference period, the two landscapes were relatively non-invaded and populations occurred mostly in roadside habitats which then served as invasion foci into other parts of the landscape. The intrinsic rates of increase of P. australis populations in linear anthropogenic habitats were generally higher than those reported for natural wetlands. Riparian habitats along streams and rivers were little invaded compared to anthropogenic linear wetlands, except when they intersected transportation rights-of-way. Bivariate spatial point pattern analysis of colonization events using both Euclidian and network distances generally showed spatial dependence (association) to source populations. An autologistic regression model that included landscape and edaphic variables selected transportation rights-of-way as the best predictor of P. australis occurrence patterns in one of the landscapes. Given the high invasion rates observed, managers of linear wetlands should carefully monitor expansion patterns especially when roads intersect landscapes of conservation or economic value.