黑龙江省农业机械化与农民非农收入互动关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

为了提高农民的非农收入,解决“三农”的核心问题,运用VAR（向量自回归）模型,实证探究了黑龙江省农业机械化与农民非农收入之间的互动关系。研究结果表明：黑龙江省农业机械化与农民非农收入互为格兰杰因果,黑龙江省农业机械化的发展对非农收入的增加有着较为稳定的促进作用,但短期来看存在一定的滞后性;而非农收入的增加会较为强烈地抑制农业机械化的发展,两者尚未形成良性的相互促进的互动关系。鉴于此,研究提出依靠科技进步带动黑龙江省农业机械化发展,通过完善农业合作组织提升农业机械服务保障水平,加强农机技能培训发挥农业机械利用效率,拓宽农民的非农就业渠道增加农民的非农收入等方面的建议,以期促进黑龙江省农业机械化和非农收入之间形成互相促进的良性互动关系。     

工厂化循环水鱼类养殖脱氮趋零排放系统研制

为摆脱生物膜脱氮技术的制约,提高循环水脱氮处理效率,营造适合鱼类养殖的富氧环境,增加鱼类养殖经济效益;基于鱼菜共生生态及经济效益,提供一种设计合理、高效环保的工厂化循环水鱼类养殖脱氮趋零排放系统,重点解决种养殖水体营养浓度需求不一致的关键技术瓶颈。将养殖污水经过电迁移和膜浓缩工艺结构,得到能够满足植物营养需求的高氮水,同时得到能够用于鱼类养殖池的循环水,解决鱼菜营养物质浓度需求矛盾,大大提高植物和鱼类的产量,获取鱼菜共生效益。同时,为方便对工厂化循环水鱼类养殖脱氮趋零排放系统的操作,设置了总控制平台和分控制平台,具备24h集中与分布控制性能。应用试验分析表明,经系统处理的养殖水体可以满足鱼菜生长需求,系统研制是成功的。     

香蕉化肥农药减量化模式和配套技术研究

介绍了适宜珠三角地区的香蕉化肥农药减量化模式,并提出了香蕉平衡施肥、病虫草害综合治理、香蕉间作栽培、香蕉废弃茎叶循环利用等4方面的配套技术,模式与技术示范显示出良好的效果。     

Use of Akaike information criteria for model selection and inference. An application to assess prevention of gastrointestinal parasitism and respiratory mortality of Guinean goats in Kolda,Senegal

A field experiment was carried out in Kolda (southern Senegal) from July 1986 to July 1988. Its goals were to: (1) describe the patterns of mortality of female Guinean goats by age, season and year; (2) assess preventive measures against respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal parasitism in reducing mortality; and (3) estimate the overall impact of these measures on survival to 1 year of age. Preventive measures for respiratory disease included vaccination against peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and pneumonic pasteurellosis (Pasteurella multocida types A and D). Control of gastrointestinal parasites was by deworming does with morantel (7.5 mg kg⁻¹, three times during the rainy season). The effects of vaccines and deworming were tested in a randomised factorial field experiment with villages being the experimental units. A total of 19 villages, 113 goat herds and 1458 goats were included in the study.

Generalised linear models of survival for five cohorts of goats (defined by five different birth seasons) used a binomial assumption for the response distribution and a complementary log–log link. Explanatory variables included age, season, year, vaccination, deworming and their interactions. A complex a priori model was built on the basis of previous epidemiological knowledge; a purposively selected set of simpler models was compared to this full model by the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and derived statistics. Inference on 1-year survival and treatment effects accounted for model-selection uncertainty. It was carried out with a bootstrap procedure and used information from the whole set of selected models.

Large variations in mortality by year and season were observed but no regular seasonal pattern was apparent. Mortality probabilities of kids in dewormed groups decreased quickly after birth, but remained elevated up to 9 months of age in the non-dewormed groups. Deworming lowered the risk of mortality. Vaccination alone was not protective (except during an observed outbreak of PPR).     

土壤溅蚀过程和研究方法综述

土壤溅蚀是土壤侵蚀过程的开始,是指由于降雨雨滴打击土壤表层,引起土壤颗粒分散和迁移的一种侵蚀过程,是导致坡面水蚀的一个重要威胁因子。因此,土壤溅蚀是土壤侵蚀的重要形式和组成部分,具有重要的研究意义。土壤溅蚀过程和研究方法是土壤溅蚀领域研究的核心内容。论文根据有关资料,综述了国内外土壤溅蚀过程和研究方法方面的主要成果,并对将来的研究方向进行了展望,以期推动我国在该领域的研究工作。国内外研究表明,土壤溅蚀是土壤侵蚀的主要过程之一,是各种水文过程、水力过程和生态过程的综合表现,是复杂的降雨因子和土壤因子共同作用的结果,涉及一系列关于降雨雨滴与地表间的能量转换过程。测量土壤溅蚀的方法主要有溅蚀杯、溅蚀板和溅蚀盘。进一步的研究应致力于土壤溅蚀的力学过程和森林土壤溅蚀过程方面的探讨。     

自然植被净第一性生产力模型及其应用

本文利用中国１２５组天然成熟森林资料及Ｅｆｉｍｏｖａ在ＩＢＰ期间获得的世界各地的２３组森林,草地及荒漠等自然被资料应用及相应的气候资料对目前流行的气候生产力模型;Ｍｉａｍｉ模型,Ｔｏｒｎｔｈｗａｉｔｅ Ｍｅｍｏｒｉａｌ 模型,Ｃｈｉｕｋｇｏ模型,综合模型及北京模型的适用性进行了研究。结果表明：Ｃｈｉｋｕｇｏ模型,北京模型与综合模型都能较好地反应森林净第一性生产力状况,但对于干旱半干旱地区,模型与综     

Can conservation tillage mitigate climate change impacts in Mediterranean cereal systems? A soil organic carbon assessment using long term experiments

Simulation models, informed and validated with datasets from long term experiments (LTEs), are considered useful tools to explore the effects of different management strategies on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and evaluate suitable mitigative options for climate change. But, while there are several studies which assessed a better prediction of crop yields using an ensemble of models, no studies are currently available on the evaluation of a model ensemble on SOC stocks. In this study we assessed the advantages of using an ensemble of crop models (APSIM-NWheat, DSSAT, EPIC, SALUS), calibrated and validated with datasets from LTEs, to estimate SOC dynamics. Then we used the mean of the model ensemble to assess the impacts of climate change on SOC stocks under conventional (CT) and conservation tillage practices (NT: No Till; RT: Reduced Tillage). The assessment was completed for two long-term experiment sites (Agugliano – AN and Pisa – PI2 sites) in Italy under rainfed conditions. A durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum (Desf.) Husn.) – maize (Zea mays L.) rotation system was evaluated under two different climate scenarios over the periods 1971–2000 (CP: Present Climate) and 2021–2050 (CF: Future Climate), generated by setting up a statistical model based on canonical correlation analysis. Our study showed a decrease of SOC stocks in both sites and tillage systems over CF when compared with CP. At the AN site, CT lost −7.3% and NT −7.9% of SOC stock (0–40 cm) under CF. At the PI2 site, CT lost −4.4% and RT −5.3% of SOC stocks (0–40 cm). Even if conservation tillage systems were more impacted under future scenarios, they were still able to store more SOC than CT, so that these practices can be considered viable options to mitigate climate change. Furthermore, at the AN site, under CF, NT demonstrated an annual increase of 0.4%, the target value suggested by the 4 per thousand initiative launched at the 21st meeting of the Conference of the Parties in Paris. However, RT at the PI2 needs to be coupled with other management strategies, as the introduction of cover crops, to achieve such target.     

重组木微观力学模型及刚度参数分析方法探讨

以复合材料力学的微观力学分析方法为基础，在横观各向同性假设下，建立了重组木的材料力学与弹性力学分析的力学模型。由该模型，综合复合材料力学的理论，预测重组木的纵、横向弹性模量，泊松比，纵横向剪切弹性模量，给出材料力学分析的具体公式。     

杉木人工林生长率模型的研究

生长率 (Ｇｒｏｗｔｈｐｅｒｃｅｎｔａｇｅ)是指某一测树因子的连年生长量与其原有总量的百分比。它是用来说明树木相对生长速度的重要指标 ,常用于对同一树种在不同立地条件下或不同树种在相同立地条件下生长速度的比较及未来生长量的预估等。现以湖南省会同杉木为例 ,就杉木     

森林采伐限额与林业企业生产经营优化的探讨

简述了实施森林采伐限额制度的意义，以及实施限量采伐对林业企业经济的影响。利用投入产出与线性规划最优化模型对林业企业生产经营进行优化设计，提出了解决林业企业民限量采伐矛盾的方法和途径。