Managing risk and vulnerability in Asia: A (re)study from Thailand, 1982–83 and 2008

In the 1980s, rural settlements in the Northeast of Thailand were farming focused, and strategies of living were structured around the need to secure subsistence in the face of a capricious environment and a weak developmental state. More than half of households in the region lived below the poverty line, and the immediate prospects for ‘development’ were not bright. Drawing on a 25‐year longitudinal study of two villages in Mahasarakham, the paper describes and reflects on how risk and vulnerability have been re‐shaped during a quarter of a century of profound economic and social change. From largely environmental and local, the pattern of risk and opportunity have become increasingly economic and non‐local as external events wash across the shores of rural settlements like Ban Non Tae and Ban Tha Song Korn.     

泉州海岸带自然灾害易损性的模糊综合分析与评判

以泉州海岸带作为研究对象,选取10个因子组成自然灾害和社会经济两个子系统,建立二级模糊综合评判模型对泉州海岸带自然灾害易损性进行了综合评判。结果表明：泉州市自然灾害的易损性总体偏高,海岸带易损性等级高于全市平均水平;海岸带内易损性等级总体上随着距海里程的增加而降低,但在内部还呈现中部地区较其他区域易损性等级偏低的情况。并且结合区域实际情况对综合评判的结果进行了分析。     

区域自然灾害的社会脆弱性评估——以河南省为例

脆弱性研究对区域防灾减灾规划和灾害风险管理具有极其重要的作用。以灾害频发的河南省为研究区,以区内各地市为基本评价单元,运用秩次相关分析和PCA法筛选出11个相互独立的影响因子,构建了河南省自然灾害社会脆弱性评估模型。利用AHP法确定各指标的相对权重,采用综合指数法对各评价单元的社会弱性进行了评估,并借助ArcGIS软件对评估结果进行了区划制图研究。结果表明:(1)河南省自然灾害的社会脆弱性呈现出一定的地域分布规律。(2)周口市、商丘市和驻马店市社会脆弱性等级为Ⅲ,属高脆弱区;郑州市、济源市与三门峡市自然灾害的社会脆弱性等级为Ⅰ,属低脆弱区;其他地市评价等级为Ⅱ,属中等脆弱区。(3)全省所处高、中和低社会脆弱性的面积比例分别为22.68%,65.35%和11.97%。     

基于AHP的DRASTIC模型在银川市潜水防污性能评价中的应用

[目的]探讨银川市区域地下水防污性能,为都市圈的建设、规划以及地下水资源的保护等方面提供科学依据.[方法]以银川市绕城高速内的城区为研究区,综合水文地质条件,选取地下水埋深、净补给量、含水层富水性、土壤类型、包气带岩性和水力传导系数等6个评价因子,利用层次分析法(AHP)确定因子权重,建立适合银川市当地的地下水防污性能...     

Evaluating persistence and its predictors in a West African carnivore community

Carnivore extinctions frequently have cascading impacts through an ecosystem, so effective management of ecological communities requires an understanding of carnivore vulnerability. This has been hindered by the elusive nature of many carnivores, as well as a disproportionate focus on large-bodied species and particular geographic regions. We use multiple survey methods and a hierarchical multi-species occupancy model accounting for imperfect detection to assess extinction risk across the entire carnivore community in Ghana’s Mole National Park, a poorly studied West African savanna ecosystem. Only 9 of 16 historically occurring carnivore species were detected in a camera-trap survey covering 253 stations deployed for 5469 trap days between October 2006 and January 2009, and our occupancy model indicated low overall likelihoods of false absence despite low per-survey probabilities of detection. Concurrent sign, call-in, and village surveys, as well as long-term law enforcement patrol records, provided more equivocal evidence of carnivore occurrence but supported the conclusion that many carnivores have declined and are likely functionally or fully extirpated from the park, including the top predator, lion (Panthera leo). Contrary to expectation, variation in carnivore persistence was not explained by ecological or life-history traits such as body size, home range size or fecundity, thus raising questions about the predictability of carnivore community disassembly. Our results imply an urgent need for new initiatives to better protect and restore West Africa’s embattled carnivore populations, and they highlight a broader need for more empirical study of the response of entire carnivore communities to anthropogenic impact.     

Differential impact of bushmeat hunting on monkey species and implications for primate conservation in Korup National Park, Cameroon

Bushmeat hunting is one of the primary threats to many large-bodied vertebrate species in African forests. However, species vary in their degree of vulnerability to hunting. We investigated the impact of hunting on monkey species in Cameroon’s Korup National Park (KNP) and examined how vulnerability to hunting varies among species. Data on primate abundance and hunting intensity were collected along 10 line transects, distributed across three survey areas in KNP. We assessed how the relative abundance of seven monkey species spatially varied between heavily and lightly hunted areas and evaluated temporal changes in the relative abundance and proportional representation of these species at a single hunted forest site and in bushmeat harvests. The putty-nosed and mona monkeys are most tolerant to heavy hunting pressure whereas the crowned monkey, drill, and red colobus are among the most vulnerable. At our heavily hunted survey site, the overall relative density of monkey groups increased through time but primate species richness declined. The proportional representation of Cercopithecus species, especially putty-nosed monkeys, increased through time, possibly due to competitive release. We also observed an increase in the proportional representation of the putty-nosed and mona monkeys and a reduced percent contribution of the red colobus and drill in hunter harvests. We conclude that hunting is driving some of Africa’s most threatened primate species (e.g., Preuss’s red colobus and the drill) to local extinction in KNP. We discuss intrinsic factors of species that might influence their degree of vulnerability and strategies to improve protection efforts in KNP.     

几种地下水脆弱性评价方法之比较

地下水脆弱性研究是保护地下水环境工作的基础。对地下水脆弱性进行评价,可为合理地保护、开发和利用地下水资源,实现地下水资源的可持续利用提供有益参考。应用熵权系数法、基于RAGA的投影寻踪模型以及多目标模糊模式识别模型等几种模型对三江平原地下水脆弱性进行评价,得出评价结果。将结果进行横向比较,分析几种评价方法各自的优缺点,为地下水脆弱性的评价提供新的思路和方法。     

湖泊流域社会生态系统脆弱性及其驱动机制分析——以滇池为例

随着湖泊流域人类活动的加剧,我国湖泊水体污染及流域生态环境退化逐渐加重,生态系统结构和功能日益遭受破坏。从流域尺度、社会生态系统层面进行综合分析,找出流域脆弱性的驱动机制,对于源头治理湖泊流域水体污染和环境退化具有重大意义。文章以滇池为例,结合"压力-状态-响应"模型和"暴露度-敏感性-恢复力"模型,构建湖泊流域社会生态系统脆弱性分析框架,探寻湖泊流域脆弱性特征及驱动机制,为流域的系统治理提供依据。结果表明,滇池流域是昆明市的脆弱性中心和策源地,脆弱性趋势在加剧和蔓延;脆弱性特征区域差异显著,脆弱性程度趋于均衡。社会因素尤其是人类活动是脆弱性主要的驱动因素,不合理的土地利用是滇池流域脆弱性形成的最大贡献者。脆弱性跨尺度作用明显,脆弱程度受外界影响大;系统自组织程度低,环境治理效率不佳。最后文章提出了滇池流域脆弱性调控的措施。     

Evaluating land degradation for assessment of land vulnerability to desert conditions in the Sokoto area,Nigeria

There are no standard indicators to evaluate or predict desertification. This paper describes an attempt to assess vulnerability to desert conditions in part of the Sokoto district in northwestern Nigeria, using remote sensing coupled with other ancillary data (erosion, sealing, crusting, compaction, cover change, organic matter monitoring, salinity and aridification) within a geographic information system environment.